Even though we’re putting down a dusting of snow here now, the snow has no chance of sticking around with temperatures warming into the 40s next week.

The blue numbers represent the average high temperature for each day in January. Our observed highs (in red) have surpassed the normal in all but eight days.

We even had four days in the 50s…something that can’t be completely ruled out next week pending a little sunshine and bare ground.

Have a great weekend! -ES

Posted under climate/climate change

It looks like we get to enjoy another break from winter as we head into the month of February.  Several models indicate a nice warm up by the beginning of next week, which will last into the first couple of days in February. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) shows well above average temperatures for the extended forecast, not just for the Midwest, but also for the entire country.  Even the 8-14 day extended forecast from the CPC shows above average temperatures from the west coast to the Midwest.  However, the GFS, which is a long-range forecast computer model, shows signs of colder air starting to push back in by the first full week of February.

Posted under heat wave, weather, weather geek

Earlier this week, our computer guidance suggested an all-out surge of Arctic air for the weekend with high temperatures in the single digits possible for Sunday. That was Monday. Today, the same guidance suggests highs will be in the lower to middle 20s. So it appears we’ll have just a glancing blow from the cold air.

Before that, we’ve got a quick stripe of snow (mainly for Wisconsin). This will begin in our coverage area sometime during the evening and end in the predawn hours of Saturday. Only an inch is expected with 1-3″ possible north of Madison and Milwaukee.

Then, all eyes will be on an expanding dome of warm air that will advance out of the Southern Plains early next week. Bye bye, snow!

Posted under cold blast, snow

Snow is melting off quickly across our region and as this happens our temperatures will moderate significantly.

Any wind out of the southwest, south, southeast, and east will be warming wind. Northeast and west wind will be fairly neutral (as snowpack in Southern Wisconsin and Eastern Iowa dwindles). So, the only way we’re going to get any bitterly cold air is with a north or northwesterly wind.

While we may put down around an inch of snow here Friday night but that will melt off or evaporate with the strong sun this weekend. Clouds, drizzle, and fog early next week will bring an end to the snowcover early next week.

Posted under weather geek

A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for the entire viewing area until 10:00 a.m. this morning.  Areas of very dense fog developed early this morning creating poor visibility of a half mile or less at times.  Subfreezing temperatures are also causing problems.  It is allowing the moisture in the fog is freezing on contact and we have heard reports of light freezing drizzle.  This will produce slick roadways and walking surfaces, so please allow extra time during your morning commute.  Conditions will start to improve later this morning and by this afternoon, we’ll get to see a little bit of sunshine as temperatures rise into the mid and upper 30s.

Posted under fog, weather

Today, we had a great tour group of Cub Scouts from South Beloit tour the station. You’d think I would have an answer to any question a Cub Scout would have. Well, not tonight! Teagan asked me “Why are some satellite dishes so big and some are small?”

According to Atlantic Satellite South, a satellite company in Florida, bigger satellite dishes are needed to pick up weaker signals from lower power satellites. The advantage of low power satellites is that more programs can be broadcast and picked up. A typical satellite dish that you may use to watch TV via DirecTV or Dish Network is pretty small…usually only a foot or two in diameter. But the picture to the left is of one of our satellite dishes here at WREX that has a diameter of about thirty feet! This is one of our older dishes though. Better technology has made it possible for our newer dishes to be smaller (which are located on the roof of our building). Weather sometimes gets in the way of satellite transmission. There are times during hailstorms and severe thunderstorms that the receivers (dishes) can’t pick up the data due to big raindrops and hailstones.

Here is a diagram of how satellites transmit data and TV signals. You can read more by clicking on Atlantic Satellite South’s page right here.

Posted under space, weather geek

A powerful squall line of thunderstorms developed over Texas earlier today and continues to push east across the Mid-South this evening.  For some, this is déjà vu, as areas across Mississippi and Alabama dealt with severe thunderstorms and tornados just a couple of days ago.  This area of convective activity has produced damaging winds and torrential downpours.  As of 5:00pm, there have been reports of at least 5 tornados in far east Texas and west-central Louisiana.  Our Threatrack storm prediction tool still shows the possibility of isolated tornados developing during the overnight hours, especially in parts of Mississippi.  This includes the capital region of Jackson.  Even though daytime heating won’t be a factor, models still plot wind shear at values conducive to tornado development.  -JA

Posted under severe weather, tornado, Wind

Unfortunately for the Rockford region, the recent cloud cover at night hampered what little chance we had to see the Aurora Borealis yesterday.  A quick Internet search will turn up the beautiful bright green and blue streaks dancing in the sky over Norway and other northern locations.  The image to the left shows a bright spot on the northeast quadrant of the sun.  That bright spot is a solar flare, which sent electrons, ions, and atoms out into space.  Often associated with a solar flare is a coronal mass ejection (CME).  A CME is a large burst of solar wind and magnetic field, projected into space.  Luckily, this latest solar storm did not effect Earth (and technology) in a major way.  Click on some of the links below to see some amazing video captured by NASA!  -JA

http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/videogallery/index.html?media_id=129872541

http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/videogallery/index.html?media_id=130014861

http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/videogallery/index.html?media_id=129883621

Posted under space, sunlight, weather

Our next chance for snow comes in on Friday. However, the amount of snow possible is still undetermined due to the different scenarios the computer models are painting.  Many of them are showing snow for Friday with a few showing some accumulating snow.  The NAM and GFS are the two that are showing a couple inches of snow accumulation by Friday evening for northern Illinois.  The European model is showing most of the snow accumulation hitting Iowa by Friday evening and very little accumulation for our area.  For now, we have chances for snow showers in the forecast until further information is gathered, since there are so many different variations of this next winter system.

Posted under snow, weather, winter weather

It now appears that only the northern-most states will have a potential to see the Northern Lights (Aurora Borealis) tonight, thanks to the fact that the bulk of the electromagnetic particles missed our side of the planet. According to WGN Chief Meteorologist Tom Skilling, there’s only a 25% chance of seeing it in Northern Illinois thanks to info from astronomer Dan Joyce of Triton College.

Add to this sad reality are the clouds above. These will obscure the lights here for the evening. Even though there’s a small chance to see them tonight, be on the lookout! There may just be enough holes in the clouds. And don’t fret, there’s still a chance in the next few nights of seeing them.

If you see them, be sure to let us know on our Facebook page or e-mail weather@wrex.com. -ES

Posted under space, weather geek