As a dome of hot air descends on the Upper Midwest, I’m afraid we’ll be hoping for some cooling showers for relief this weekend. Here’s the set up as the jet stream rides high around Lake Superior. This will allow the warm air to move into the Great Lakes. If we didn’t have any chances for storms, we’d be solidly in the 90s. However, we will have some boomers riding the ridge of high pressure to our north. While it won’t rain the entire weekend, there will be a few hours of rain and thunder for the weekend. The way I look at it, we’ve got two hours of each weekend day/night with rain which leaves us with plenty of time to enjoy the great outdoors. -Eric

Posted under heat wave

Yesterday was one of the most gorgeous days we have seen in quite some time. We had ample sunshine, comfortably cool temperatures, low humidity and just the slightest breeze. Today we can expect much of the same, however, by Friday the temperatures will be on the rise and so will the dew points. Humidity will begin to rise on Friday as dew point temps climb into the 70s. Those high dew points will stay in the 70s during the afternoon for the entire weekend meaning that our old friend the heat index will be in play and could top out as high as the upper 90s! We do have the chance to see a few scattered storms Friday-Sunday which would be life savers by keeping our actual temperatures in the 80s and our of the 90s. Either way, its going to be warm and muggy this weekend! -Greg

Posted under heat wave, rain, weather

I gave a heads up that tonight was perfect for watching the ISS. Didn’t hear it? Become a 13 Weather Authority fan on Facebook by clicking here and you’ll get it next time.

Many folks thought it was cool enough to see again (and a few missed my post in time). So here you go! And if you’re wondering, the ISS is in orbit more than 200 miles above the surface of the earth, traveling at a smidge over 17,000 mph. -Eric 

Click here to find other dates and times for other locations.

Posted under space

 Get ready for summer! Officially, the season begins on Friday when the solstice arrives. This means that more of the sun’s rays are pointed toward the Northern Hemisphere. This will also be the weekend with the most daylight of any weekend in the year! On Friday, the sun will rise at 5:20 in the morning and not set until 8:36pm. This will give us 15 hours, 16 minutes, and 26 seconds of daylight to enjoy.

Compare that to the shortest day of 2013 which will arrive this December when we will only receive 9 hours and 5 minutes of daylight! Have I given you enough of a reason to make your outdoor plans for the weekend?

Well, if I have be ready for some extreme warmth. In fact, it looks like we could be seeing back-to-back 90s beginning this weekend. Quite a far cry from the upper 40s and lower 50s coming early Wednesday. If we dip into the 40s in Rockford, it would near the record for the date. But with the beginning of summer comes the serious heat this weekend. With high temperatures in the upper 80s and dewpoints in the 70s, heat index values will be in the 95-100° range!

On top of that, some scattered thunderstorms will be possible. Due to the 40% chance, and the fact that this far out I can’t assure that these will happen after the full daytime heating, I’m going to be a bit conservative with upper 80s. However, if the rain holds off until the afternoons or evenings, leaving the morning hours sunny, some lower to middle 90s will be possible! In other words, this is a HOT airmass! Welcome to summer 2013! -Eric

Posted under climate/climate change, heat wave, science, weather geek

Last night’s cool front has lead to today’s lowered high tempertures, but even our middle 70s still feel comfortable. Those middle 70s also happen to be the coolest high temps we will see for at least the next 7-10 days thanks to a heat wave that will begin to settle in as we head toward the weekend. Taking a look at the 10 day temperature trend you can see that both Saturday and Sunday are poised to top out at or even above 90° IF we can keep scattered showers and storms out of the forecast. If that rain does develop, highs will still make it into the upper 80s. That warm air mass will dominate well into next week, so find the sunscreen and dust off the bathing suits! -Greg

Posted under heat wave, weather

A cool front touched off a few thunderstorms Monday evening. But that’s on its way out and Tuesday will reveal a very nice weather pattern! High pressure will be right overhead Tuesday night and Wednesday. This will bring us highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. In fact, upper 40s may be as close as South-Central Wisconsin Tuesday night!

However, as this high pressure drifts to the East Coast this weekend, it will open up the warm air to move in from the west. The level of warmth would be enough to warrant 90s in our forecast, if we could get rid of the 30-40% chance of thunderstorms. At this point, it’s just too hard to determine when the weekend thunderstorms will occur. Should they happen in the morning hours, it will be impossible to warm into the 90s. Should we remain dry through the afternoon hours, 90s will be a sure bet. In any event, summer begins Friday and will feel like it! -Eric

Posted under heat wave, weather geek

This June started off in the gutter with respect to temperatures. We had multiple days where highs would struggle to make it into the 60s and 70s. The good news is that if you have been longing for summer temps and tons of sun, they both are finally here! You don’t need me to tell you that this June has been particularly cooler than last year, but looking at the numbers it is plain to see. By this date last year, we had already stacked up several 90° June days, however we have still been itching for our first one this year. On the rainfall front things look a lot better. Last June through this date we had only received 0.61″ of rain compared to this years 1.29″! We have more than doubled last years number, but that trend looks to slow a bit as sunshine takes over starting tomorrow through the end of the week. Enjoy the 80s and the sun! -Greg

Posted under statistics, weather

Thanks to Saturday morning’s showers and considerable cloudiness, a stable atmosphere was in place over northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin for much of the afternoon.  As a cool front pushes toward the area, though, thunderstorms will develop ahead of this boundary for the evening and nighttime hours.  The thunderstorms will be scattered in nature.

Looking at the latest trends, the best threat for any severe weather appears to stay just south of our area.  However, we may see a stronger thunderstorm or two across some of our thirteen counties.  The stronger storms will contain heavy rain, small hail, frequent lightning, and brief gusty wind.

The scattered thunderstorm activity will wind down after midnight, allowing for some breaks in the cloud cover.  Patchy fog may develop toward dawn.  It looks like we’ll sneak out a dry day on Sunday, with much of the stormy activity confined to central Illinois and points south.  We can’t rule out a widely-isolated thunderstorm, especially south of Interstate 88.

-Joe

Posted under Exactrack|HD, rain, severe weather, Threatrack, weather

A line of thunderstorms rolling out of Iowa will produce some heavy rain to our Mississippi River counties early in the day. These storms will be on the decrease as they move eastbound into a more stable airmass here in Northern Illinois. However, a cold front will approach the region late in the day Saturday. Should we get a few hours of sunshine, severe weather will be possible. The main threats will be large hail and damaging wind. An isolated tornado can’t be ruled out! Threatrack-2 will take us through the day. Meteorologist Joe Astolfi and I will be watching the weather for you. Please have a severe weather plan! -Eric

Posted under weather

Flag Day is observed annually on June 14th.  This date is often associated with pleasant temperatures; after all, we are in meteorological summer.  The average high temperature for Flag Day in Rockford is 81 degrees; the average low is 58 degrees. 

While 2013 will be close to average, Flag Day has had its extremes in years past.  In fact, Flag Day 2012 was hot and humid with a high of 88 in the Forest City.  The all-time record high is 98 degrees, which occurred in 1987.  The coldest temperature was 40 degrees in 1933.  The rainiest was in 1926, with nearly 5 inches of rain drenching the area.  The latter two records, in case you’re a history buff, were technically set before Congress established Flag Day (which happened in 1949).

-Joe

Posted under 13 Climate Authority, record weather, statistics, weather