Update: 7:24 p.m.
The storms in eastern Iowa are going to stay away from our area. A few showers are still possible this evening, but the threat of severe weather appears to be pretty much nil. I wouldn’t be surprised if the flood watch is cancelled soon, as well. The storms well to our south have cut off Gulf moisture, so the cold front was not able to establish an organized line of thunderstorms.
Temperatures will quickly drop later tonight as the cold front sweeps through.
Update: 6:04 p.m.
Cells continue to develop in our northwest counties.
The storms in eastern Iowa have gone severe, with nickel-sized hail reported.
Update: 5:34 p.m.
The cluster of rain and thunderstorms in southeast Iowa is still holding its own. We’re also seeing a couple blips on the radar developing in western Carroll County over the past few minutes.
Eric describes it best… we have the ingredients in place, but we’re still not sure if the oven is going to be set to the right temperature.
We’re watching storms try to develop near the surface low in southeastern Iowa. With all the cloudcover/mist/fog today, we’ve found ourselves in a pretty stable airmass. However, there has been thinning of the clouds in eastern Iowa – even some clearing – allowing some energy to get going. This energy will need to sustain itself as the low moves northeast through the afternoon/evening hours. If it doesn’t, we’ll have too much shear for any storms to be able to survive. If it does… then storms will have the ability to rotate. It’s one of the variables we’re monitoring. In addition, if you’ve stepped outside and are south of the Illinois-Wisconsin border, you’ve felt a very distinct change in the air. Our temperature and dewpoint have both surged; as I write this, Rockford is 60 with a dewpoint of 56.
Tonight’s weather situation is looking like an all-or-nothing sort of scenario. Everything has to come into place just right if strong storms are going to develop. We’ll be giving you frequent updates…
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This post was written by Eric Sorensen on March 31, 2008