Models waffling (and it’s not even breakfast time)

sfcmapThe evening NAM model is now in and is waffling back to a track to the east (which would mean less snow for our area). It still doesn’t mean it’s gone, even with this scenario there will be some minor, accumulating snow for Northern Illinois.

This is just one model and by tomorrow morning, most of the models will come in line with one particular solution. This will allow us to have higher confidence on the Wednesday/Thursday storm. Just one of the reasons we don’t pinpoint snowfall amounts in our forecasts until we’re 24 hours from the first flake.

We’ll keep you updated as we get more information, right here on the blog.

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This post was written by Eric Sorensen on November 30, 2009

Snow event possible Wednesday night

snowfallSnowfall forecast graphic from the global computer models. The maroon line is the midnight run of the NAM model. The bright red line is this morning’s model run. I don’t believe this is going to be an 8 inch event, however all variables will be watched closely! The GFS model has not come into line with accumulating snow here. However this is expected in this evening’s runs. It seems prudent at this time to start talking about an accumulating snow event for the Rockford region Wednesday night into Thursday. Stay tuned. We always have the latest insights on our exclusive weather blog. -ES

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This post was written by Eric Sorensen on November 30, 2009

Accumulating snow not far off Wednesday night!

exactrackJust beginning to look through the weather models right now. However, look what our in-house ExacTrack model is spitting out for Wednesday evening!

A bombing low pressure system is slated to be around Paducah, KY Wednesday evening with accumulating snows from the Ozarks to Quincy and up to LaSalle-Peru, IL. The consensus from the HPC at the National Weather Service is to take this along the Ohio River, which would bring most of the snow to the south of I-88. However this is preliminary. I will update you here and on Facebook with the forecast package that I’ll release around 4pm today.

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This post was written by Eric Sorensen on November 30, 2009

Attention all Weather Kids!!!

weather-kids-300x250Hey everyone!!  Every morning I get the honor of announcing my helper for the day… AKA Weather Kid.  But I have one problem… I’M RUNNING OUT OF PICTURES!!!  So all you moms, dads, grandparents, aunts, uncles, even brothers and sisters… send me some pictures.  This is what I’m looking for:

Medium to High resolution

Good face shot (No hands, fingers, or even feet by the face)

Name, Age and City

If you want it on-air on the day of birthday… I need at least a 2 week notice.

Send them to:  weather@wrex.com or ckahlbaum@wrex.com

Thanks!!!

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This post was written by Cyndi Kahlbaum on November 30, 2009

Meteorological Winter

Tuesday marks the first day of meteorological winter (Dec.1-Feb. 28). Wait a second, doesn’t winter start in late December? There is a difference between meteorological winter and astronomical winter. Astronomical winter begins when the sun is furthest from the earth in the northern hemisphere (5:47pm on December 21st to be precise). It is also our shortest period of daylight. Meteorological winter is simply the period of the year when the northern hemisphere is the coldest. This change in season could not have come at a better time as we are expecting bitter cold for the latter half of this week. Here is the 8-14 day outlook issued by our friends at the Climate Prediction Center as well as a longer, 1 month outlook for temperatures.

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This post was written by Aaron Brackett on November 29, 2009

Winter weather possible Wednesday and Thursday

winterstorm1winterstorm2Although we are still a few days out, winter weather is possible Wednesday night into Thursday. A low pressure system rich with moisture will lift out of the Gulf of Mexico Tuesday into Wednesday. The uncertainty lies in what path the storm decides to take. If it goes further east, we will simply get colder temperatures behind the low and maybe a flurry or two. The alternative path takes it closer to Rockford. Generally speaking, the closer the rear of the low comes, the better chance of accumulating snow we will have. Regardless of its proximity, we will be seeing temperatures well below normal for the end of the week.

-AB

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This post was written by Aaron Brackett on November 28, 2009

Welcome Home Atlantis!!

Space ShuttleSpace Shuttle Atlantis and its seven astronauts returned to Earth with a smooth touchdown this morning (Friday) to end an 11-day flight that resupplied the International Space Station.

With lots of sunshine, the shuttle swooped through the clear sky and landed on the runway right on time. Mission Control said no one could remember such welcoming conditions; there were no clouds in sight for Atlantis’ mid morning arrival, and the temperature was in the 50s.

This was Atlantis’ next-to-last mission. Only five shuttle flights remain, all to the space station next year. Station construction will essentially end at that point, so NASA used the trip to send up as many hefty spare parts as possible.  NASA’s next shuttle flight is in February. Endeavour will deliver a full-fledged module to the space station, complete with a cupola for prime Earth gazing with a domed chamber that has seven windows.

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This post was written by Cyndi Kahlbaum on November 27, 2009

Working the weekends: not so bad!

It seems like whenever I have been working for the past few weekends we have enjoyed beautiful weather! I did a little checking on the observed temperatures and by golly I was right. For the last 5 weekends, 8 of those last 10 days have been at or above average. Some have been well above average with November 7th and 8th recording 71 degrees both Saturday and Sunday! As I have said on the air, there has not been much to complain about here in the weather center for the weekend as our patterns have been lined up perfectly for nice weekends. For this weekend, we will be warm again with highs in the lower 50′s on Saturday before a cooldown to start next week.

Have a safe and happy Thanksgiving!

-AB

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This post was written by Aaron Brackett on November 26, 2009

Few flakes tonight…not much after that.

While rain continues to fall in the Rockford area this evening, the changeover has already begun in parts of Iowa. It looks as if it’ll remain hard to get completely into the cold sector of this storm. Will still keep the dusting possible, but accumulations seem unlikely with warm ground temperatures and a wet ground.

stormtracksAfter this system passes us to the northeast, two weekend storms will affect the northeast and northwest before we get back into an El Nino pattern.

Next week’s stormtrack is way south. However, let me caution you. This track may come north with time. If that happens, a combo of rain and snow may work into our area Wednesday-Thursday of next week.

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This post was written by Eric Sorensen on November 25, 2009

Your Thanksgiving Travel Guide

travel1I know many of us are traveling for their Thanksgiving Feast… So if you are headed North, East, South, or West here is your forecast of what to expect for Today(Wednesday) and into your T-Day.

North:  Today- Rain Showers highs lower 40s.  Rain changing into a rain-snow mix overnight.  T-Day- Snow Flurries Highs mid to lower 30s.

South:  Today- Rain Shower highs lower 40s.  Turning to Rain-Snow overnight.  T-Day- Light Rain-Snow mix, temps upper 30s (Southern Il). Further South expect clearing skies and temps in the lower 40s (Springfield, MO).

East: Today- Rain showers highs mid 40s.  Overnight seeing the rain-snow mix.  T-day- Rain-snow Mix, temps in the upper 30s.

West- Today- Snow showers with falling temps.  Overnight a few snow flurries.  T-day- Mostly sunny and windy, highs lower 40s.

Everyone have a happy and safe Thanksgiving!!!

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This post was written by Cyndi Kahlbaum on November 25, 2009