Heavy rainfall on the order of 3-5 inches will mean we’ll have to be on heightened alert for flash flooding early on and then river flooding late-week into the weekend.

Current jet stream forecasts show the river of air at the top of the atmosphere to be moving fast right overhead. This will allow several fronts to enter the area and move along under the jet. This is a classic set-up for flash flooding (and perhaps severe weather).

First, thunderstorms are exiting this evening. Our next bout of wet weather will come late Tuesday night with a round of potentially damaging thunderstorms. These storms will race across Iowa during the late-afternoon and evening hours of Tuesday. I expect them to cross the Mississippi between 10pm and midnight and affect Northern Illinois during the wee hours of Wednesday. The main threat with this batch will be very heavy rainfall amounts and damaging wind.

Additional thunderstorms are likely Thursday and then again Saturday into Sunday.

Posted under flooding, severe weather

Possible Severe Weather Tuesday Night
There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms across the entire viewing area Tuesday night and into Wednesday Morning. Main threat from these storms will be heavy rainfall, damaging winds and large hail.

Possible Severe Weather Wednesday Afternoon into Wednesday Night.
Another slight risk is in place for severe weather into Wednesday. Severe storms will be likely South of I-88 into the afternoon and evening hours. Main threats will be large hail and damaging winds.

With severe thunderstorms possible for two days, flash flooding will also be a concern with rainfall totals around 2-4 inches.

Posted under weather

25 years ago on this night, a deadly tornado outbreak struck the Northeastern United States and parts of Canada. 41 tornadoes were reported in Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York, and Ontario Canada. This outbreak killed 88 people and caused more than $450 million in damage.

The storms were a result of a high level of atmospheric instability and a strong passing cold front. Of the 41 tornadoes, 23 touched down between 5 and 11 pm. Out of the 23, 8 were F4-F5s, with winds estimated over 200 mph. 21 of the 23 touched down in Pennsylvania alone, killing 65 people and over $300 million in damage.

Posted under weather

As we go through the afternoon, a few widely scattered showers and storms are possible. Our warm and humid atmosphere has allowed a few cumulus clouds to take off and build vertically. You may have heard us talking about the convective temperature being a guide as to when these storms take off. Once you surpass this temperature, storm development is possible. Today’s convective temperature is in the lower 80′s and with temperatures near 90 around the Stateline, we have begun to see some storms pop up. Any showers that do develop may produce some small hail and a few gusts of wind, but will be very short lived.

Posted under weather

With a daily average high of 76 degrees, its easy to see (and feel) that we were quite a bit above normal today. These are local high temperatures from around the area today. Notice how the lake plays a large role in keeping locations near the shore markedly cooler. Another day of near 90 temperatures is in store Sunday as we remain in southerly flow ahead of a cold front that will bring showers and thunderstorms Sunday night and early Memorial Day.

Posted under heat wave

What a nice day for a little bench cam! Gather at 1st and Water street and we will see who is outside during main weather during 13 news at 6! This is a live look at the view I will be showing!

Posted under news

Blog question of the day comes from Cherry Valley Elementary School. Evan in his thank you letter asked a very good question. What do you do if a tornado comes at night when you are in bed and do not hear the sirens?
Tornadoes that occur overnight have a greater threat than those that occur during the day just because most of us are sleeping. When this happens, we are no longer aware of the watches or warnings that are issued or that could be issued.  If there is a tornado watch that is in effect before you go to bed, leave your TV or radio on. The Emergency Alert tone should wake you up if you happen to fall asleep.  But if by chance, you think you won’t hear that, you might want to invest in a weather radio. They are inexpensive and you can program them to alert you for your county only.

Posted under weather

Over the past few days we’ve been barraged by the dire forecasts concerning the 2010 Hurricane Season. The pattern has many similarities to the 2005 season where we observed a record number of named storms with numerous meteorological records being shattered along the way. Of course, it will forever be remembered for the catastrophe that occurred after Katrina made landfalls in Louisiana and Mississippi, the 1,850 people who lost their lives, and the billions of dollars of damage. A quick comparison of 2005 and 2010 sea surface temperature analyses shows an even warmer eastern Atlantic this go around.

While the experts are predicting an intense hurricane season I am forever reminded it takes only one intense hurricane to become a disaster. This year my thoughts and eyes will be on the Haitian people as hundreds of thousands of people are living in tent-cities and are directly in harm’s way. These people have no mobility and no shelter. A heavy thunderstorm in Port au Prince causes people to panic (and there have been an abundance of them in recent weeks). Throw a tropical storm or hurricane force wind on top of the country and we will be witness to another catastrophe with hundreds (if not thousands) of injuries and fatalities.

It’s not too often I am hoping and praying for a forecast to be incorrect but this is one such case.-

Posted under earthquake/tsunami, tropical weather

Check this out! Don Harman, the morning Meteorologist at WDAF-TV in Kansas City slid right off of his chair as the anchors were tossing to him. I love the spontaneity of live television, don’t you?
 

Posted under weather

Forecasters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will announce their predictions for the six-month Atlantic hurricane season that starts next Tuesday, June 1 later this morning.

Back in April, Colorado State University researchers predicted a very busy season of 15 named storms, with four of them turning into major hurricanes. With cooler ocean temperatures out in the Pacific and warmer temperatures in the Atlantic, is making a combination that looks to increase the risk for the East Coast of getting major damage by this hurricane season.

Forecast will be posted as soon as it comes… Stay Tuned!!! -CK

Here it is…

According to the Climate Prediction Center, it looks to be an “active to extremely active hurricane season.” The outlook ranges are above and beyond the seasonal average of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.

Across the Atlantic Basin, for the six-month hurricane season, here is the forecast

14 to 23 Named Storms (with top winds of 39 mph or higher), of those named storms:
8 to 14 will be Hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which:
3 to 7 could be Major Hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5)

We will keep our eyes out East to see if this forecast holds true.

Posted under severe weather, weather