Evening model/radar analysis

hd_winter_storm_information6

9:55pm – The new GFS is now in. While there may be a slight shift of 30 miles east, I don’t believe this is in anyway going to affect our Rockford metro forecast of 12″. Higher amounts will again exist southeast of the metro where DeKalb to Chicago could receive 16-22″. -ES

noneinalaska9:45pm – Here’s a look at the winter warnings. 37 states are effected. Dark red means Winter Storm Warning, bright red shows Blizzard Warning. The light blue shading is a Winter Weather Advisory. The darker blue is a Winter Storm Watch. What’s interesting is there are NO advisories in the state of Alaska right now. Snow will fall heavily as far south as the Hill Country of Texas, up to the Midwest where we are. Again, the heavy, crippling snow will occur here tomorrow night. -ES

accumsnow1

9:40pm – Here’s a look at the raw output from our entire suite of computer models showing accumulated snowfall. The brightest red line is the newest NAM model output from the most recent model run (see below). -ES

9:30pm – Quick analysis of the radar trends right now shows a batch of heavy snow across DeKalb County. This is lifting northeast toward the Elgin, Algonquin area. Snow continues to develop southwest of Rockford which was noted on Milwaukee NWS’s in-house model this evening. 2-4 inches of snow should be expected through the morning hours of Tuesday. Strong wind out of the east-northeast will cause drifting in open areas. (Winnebago Road between US20 and the station is nearly impassable at 9pm.) -ES

newnam9:15pm – The NAM model is now in completely and continues the storm on its projected path. Looking at this, I feel there’s no need to change anything at this point. (See below.) The GFS model will be in enough to know if any changes will be needed by 9:45pm. -ES

Share

Posted under winter storm

This post was written by qni_it on January 31, 2011

Illinois Governor declares disaster declaration

hd_winter_storm_information5SPRINGFIELD – January 31, 2011. Governor Pat Quinn today announced that state agencies are working together to prepare for a large winter storm expected to hit the Midwest region starting today. Governor Quinn also issued a disaster declaration for the entire state in advance of the heavy snow, ice and blizzard conditions that are expected over the next few days.

“The entire Midwest region of the country is expected to be hit with a serious winter storm over the next few days, and it is important that we are prepared so that Illinois residents are safe and warm in the days ahead,” said Governor Quinn. “We will be increasing efforts to make sure that our roads are clear and that our most vulnerable residents are staying indoors and staying warm.”

Governor Quinn activated the State Emergency Operations Center (SEOC) in Springfield this afternoon to coordinate the state’s response to the storm. Representatives from more than a dozen state agencies will man the SEOC 24 hours a day throughout the storm. “We’re working closely with local emergency management officials throughout the state to monitor conditions and be ready to provide whatever assistance they may need,” said Joe Klinger, interim director of the Illinois Emergency Management Agency (IEMA). “But it’s also important that people prepare themselves for
this storm by stocking their homes with food, water, flashlights, radios and other necessities.”

The Illinois Department of Transportation (IDOT) and the Illinois State Police are encouraging drivers to use extra caution on roads and will be increasing efforts to keep motorists safe as driving conditions across the
state become hazardous. Motorists can check the condition of Interstates by calling 1-800-452-IDOT (4368); or by visiting www.gettingaroundillinois.com and clicking on “Winter Road Conditions.”

Read the entire disaster declaration by clicking here.

Share

Posted under winter storm

This post was written by qni_it on January 31, 2011

Winter Storm: The Impact

hd_winter_storm_information4impactmodimpacthigh1

Share

Posted under winter storm

This post was written by qni_it on January 31, 2011

Snowfall Forecast

hd_winter_storm_information3
snowcast14:18pm – Blizzard Warnings are in effect for the entire viewing area for Tuesday night into Wednesday afternoon. Light snow will accumulate 2-5 inches by Tuesday morning across Northern Illinois and Southern Wisconsin. Should we end up on the high side of this, our totals for the big event Tuesday night into Wednesday will be upped. Our forecast snowfall totals will put this storm into the top-ten snowstorms in Rockford history. We will be updating snowfall totals for the Rockford metro, comparing them to the historical record as we go through the event.

topten2Roadways will become treacherous tonight, but passable. The timeframe we will discourage travel will be Tuesday 8PM through Wednesday noon. Snowfall rates of 3″/hour will be possible in our southeastern coverage area (Lee and DeKalb). Total snowfall accumulations will be more than 12″ for the Rockford metro, points southeastward with DeKalb nearing 18″ potentially. Lesser amounts, but still worthy of near-record snows for the area from Stockton to Monroe and Janesville where 8-14″ are forecast.

We will have a live chat during all live newscasts of 13News beginning tonight at 5pm. When we are on the air, we will be live here. -ES

Share

Posted under weather

This post was written by qni_it on January 31, 2011

Winter Storm Coverage

hd_winter_storm_information2A complex and possibly historic winter weather situation is upon us within the next 48 hours as two storms combine to potentially drop extreme snow amounts.

 Blizzard Warning valid at Feb 01, 3:00 PM CST for  Jo Daviess, Carroll, Whiteside and Stephenson [IL] till Feb 02, 12:00 PM CST  

4:00 Update:  Tonight we can expect 2-5 inches by Tuesday morning.  The second round of snow arrives Tuesday night into Wednesday where we can expect another 7-13 inches (all forecasted total accumulation is for Rockford Metro).  High amounts can be expected to the  South with lesser amounts to the North.

Blizzard Watch valid at Feb 01, 3:00 PM CST for Green [WI] till Feb 02, 3:00 PM CST

Blizzard Warning valid at Feb 01, 3:00 PM CST for Jefferson, Rock and Walworth till Feb 02, 3:00 PM CST  

Blizzard Warning valid at Feb 01, 3:00 PM CST for Boone, Cook, DeKalb, Lee, McHenry, Ogle and Winnebago till Feb 02, 3:00 PM CST

conus_gfs0p5_sfc_accum-snow_72hr3:30pm Update – Here is a look at the raw output from the GFS model. It gives you an idea of the scope of this winter storm/blizzard. We expect all counties in our coverage area to be under Blizzard Warnings for the Tuesday night through Wednesday evening timeframe. Total snowfall accumulations will be in the 10-20 inch range from north to south across the WREX coverage area for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. We will have a few inches between now and the time the main, system snow arrives Tuesday night. -ES

3:00pm Update:   Just took a look at the newest model data and everything is still on track.  The storm track runs from Southern Arkansas to Western Tennessee/Kentucky into Southern Indiana and Eastern Ohio by Wednesday morning.  From Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning is the time-frame where we expect the strongest part of the storm.  This is when we can expect snowfall rates between 1-3 inches per hour, winds gusting up to 40-50 mph as well as rumbles of thunder.  This will create blizzard conditions with 4-8 ft snow drifts and visibility less than 1/4 mile.  Traveling will likely become impossible during this time-frame of Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. 

10:30am Update -  41as I continue to pour through model data and check out various forecasting methods (Cobb method and Magic Chart method for you snowheads), it appears as though our viewing area may have a substantial variation in accumulated snowfall if the system does in fact keep its current track. Locations in southwestern Wisconsin will likely see less snow than those that reside nearer to Chicago and points south of I-80.

Check out this forecast sounding from the NAM. If you are not familiar with the DGZ, you soon will be. The DGZ (Dendritic Growth Zone) is the column in our atmosphere, between -20 and -10 degrees, that is most efficient at producing snowflakes. When the air is saturated within this zone (the green moisture line near the red temperature line), snow is formed. The longer these saturated conditions exist as the snowflake falls, generally the bigger and more intense things will be at the ground. A saturated column from nearly 500mb to 925mb is certainly impressive and will yield very efficient snowfall if it verifies.

Today’s storm system, the weaker of the two, will slide off to our north and drop between 1-3″ of snow in the area. 3aLook for slightly heavier amounts close to and just north of the Wisconsin state line. Tonight, there may be a slight lull in the snowfall as we transition to the second, and much stronger, system.
As an area of low pressure continues to deepen in the southern states today, it will ride along a strong temperature transition zone toward central Illinois. As the local area will be along the northern fringe of this low, we will be in prime position to see some of the heaviest snowfall. As it looks this morning, the potential exists for some people in our viewing area to see up to 15 inches of snow from Tuesday/Wednesday’ storm alone. Amounts will be greater to the southeast of Rockford toward the Chicago area where 20+ inch amounts are possible. Travel will become difficult if not impossible Tuesday afternoon through the entire day Wednesday as winds pick up and cause blowing and drifting to several feet above actual accumulated snowfall. 23Temperatures will become a concern with windchill values to -30 at times Wednesday.

One point I cannot stress enough is about the track of the storm. Although it is an almost 100% certainty that we will all see significant snowfall totals, a deviation in the track of the storm could mean the difference between 6″-12″ or a band of 12″-20″ for any given location. As this storm continues to evolve and phase with our weaker northern storm, slight tracking differences are inevitable. On the flip side of this point is the possibility for lighter snow amounts. Strong systems usually have a fairly narrow corridor of the heaviest snow which we will continue to refine as the storm draws nearer.

132This morning, I ran our in-house computer model and changed the path of the storm to the north by 75 miles. Take a look at the absolutely impressive snowfall totals if this does in fact happen! As much as 18-22″ of snow would be on the ground if this scenario were to play out. Travel would be nearly impossible, even with 4 wheel drive. Now is the time to prepare and get any midweek plans completed.

Share

Posted under snow, winter storm

This post was written by qni_it on January 31, 2011

Winter Weather Breakdown

out41

out110out211out37Monday: A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for Rock and Walworth (WI) and Jo Daviess and Stephenson (IL) County. Snow will start by Monday afternoon and last into Tuesday morning. This first round could drop 2-6 inches of snow through the viewing area. Parts of Southern Wisconsin will have the best chance to see closer to 6 inches.

Tuesday: Snow will taper off by late morning. However, the winds will start to pick up out of the northeast up to 35 mph. This will cause blowing and drifting snow, which could affect roadways.

A Blizzard Watch is in effect from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday for: Winnebago, Boone, McHenry, Ogle, Lee and Dekalb (IL) and Rock and Walworth (WI) County. 

A Winter Storm Watch is in effect from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday for: Jo Daviess, Stephenson, Carroll and Whiteside County.

Tuesday Night into Wednesday: As the major winter storm system approaches, snowfall rates will increase from 1-3 inches per hour. This will lead to quick snow accumulation ranging from 10-20 inches. Winds will also increase out of the Northeast up to 45 mph. The combination for gusty winds and heavy snowfall will create blizzard conditions that will make traveling very dangerous to nearly impossible.

Share

Posted under snow, winter storm

This post was written by qni_it on January 30, 2011

Winter Storm Update

gfs_slp_066mA Winter Storm Watch is in effect until 6pm Wednesday for: Jo Daviess, Stephenson, Carroll and Whiteside County

A Blizzard Watch is in effect until Wednesday 6pm for: Winnebago, Boone, McHenry, Ogle, Lee and Dekalb County.

A Winter Storm Watch is in effect until 3pm for: Rock and Walworth County.

Our next two rounds of winter weather are quickly approaching and will affect the entire viewing area. The first round can be expected by Monday and last through Tuesday morning. Snowfall can be moderate at times Monday afternoon and into the early evening hours. This round of snow will lighten up by Tuesday morning with total accumulations around 2-4 inches with some localized areas receiving up to 6 inches in southern Wisconsin.
The second round comes in late Tuesday afternoon and lasts into Wednesday. The models show a storm track from northern Arkansas sliding northeast into Central Ohio. This scenario will likely create a heavy band of intense snowfall over the entire Stateline region. Total accumulation from both rounds of snow could range anywhere from 8-12 inches with a few isolated areas receiving more. Cities that are closer to the Chicago area are likely to receive more due to Lake Enhanced snow, which will create an impact on all roadways and flights out of Chicago.  Traveling will become very difficult due to the heavy snowfall and the gusty winds.  Blizzard like conditions can be expected Tuesday overnight and into Wednesday as winds gust up to 30 mph. This will cause visibility to become less than a half a mile at times. After the system passes, a cold arctic air mass will create wind chill factors between 15 to 25 below zero by Wednesday night and into Thursday morning.

Share

Posted under snow, winter storm

This post was written by qni_it on January 30, 2011

Next Winter Storm?

out28out17Our next potential winter storm is expected to move through the area by late Tuesday and lasting into Wednesday. This system is currently developing off the shores of the West Coast, than hooking around the southern central plains and into the Ohio Valley by Tuesday night. Some of the models still differ on the low-pressure’s storm track. Regardless of which track the low takes, it is capable to bring significant amounts of snowfall to the area. Winds will also increase as the storm moves through creating blizzard like conditions, which could lead to hazardous driving conditions for Wednesday. After the system passes, cold arctic air will surge through most of the U.S. producing negative single digits by Thursday morning for the stateline area.

Share

Posted under snow, winter storm

This post was written by qni_it on January 29, 2011

Two feet???

conus2_gfs0p5_sfc_accum-snow_120hrThe evening models are coming in and are still locked onto a snow event for the middle of next week. Please keep in mind that we are still talking  four days out and the maps WILL change, but this forecast model has a max snow of 18-20 inches in Northwest Missouri! (Models are continuing to nudge this thing northward (as expected)). Yikes! -ES

Share

Posted under end of the world, snow, winter storm

This post was written by qni_it on January 28, 2011

Canadian model paints snowy picture next week

gemHere is the GEM computer model forecast for accumulated snowfall through Wednesday morning. Keep in mind, the storm will not be done for us by this time so this should not be thought of as a “snowfall total” map for us. Instead, it indicates the type of snow next week’s storm will be able to produce. Click to enlarge (Areas of light blue indicate over 10 inches. Should this track east-northeast as we believe it will, we will see the heaviest snow of the winter season). -ES

Share

Posted under snow, winter storm

This post was written by qni_it on January 28, 2011