Here at the 13 Weather Authority, we do not forecast snowfall amounts until a system’s onset is within 24 hours of Rockford. We began this practice at the beginning of the winter season two years ago for a few reasons. First, we are able to give a more accurate forecast once instead of changing the outlook depending on small nuances in stormtrack and intensity. It also made it easier for us to verify our forecast after the fact since we then had a forecast amount versus actual reports.
However, as soon as snow makes its way into the forecast, most people want to know what the prospects are…whether it will be a small, nuisance snow versus an ice storm or even a full-fledged winter storm!
So, how do we accurately forecast this when we may not have all of the answers a few days out? Obviously, we have an idea of how the solution would be if it warrants us putting a wintry movie under a day on the 7 Day Outlook. Because of this, I developed a “probability scale” so you can get an idea of what is possible versus what will happen exactly.
Below is the current probability scale for the system that will affect the Rockford region this weekend. You will find this on the side bar of the main blog page (to the right). On specific blog posts, it may appear on the left side of the page. Because this is a new trial for me, I will update this Monday through Friday around 4pm. If it seems to be a well-liked addition to the blog, I will update it every day at 4pm.
First, we will give a probability of snowfall accumulation of at least one inch.
Next, because a 2 inch snow is drastically than a 6 inch snow, there is a probability of each condition being met, 2″, 4″, 6″, 8″, 12″, and 18″.
Because there are systems that don’t just yield snow, there is a probability of the storm giving us all snow, all rain, or a combo of rain, sleet, snow, and ice.
Lastly, there is a probability of the amount of precipitation (either rain or melted snow).
I’d like to hear from you about this trial. Does this give you the right amount of information ahead of time? Honestly, it’s hard to get specific when I don’t have all of the details. I hope this lets me get the information across to you in a timely fashion. Thanks in advance for your input! -ERIC
Sat PM through Sun PM
Exclusive WREX Probability Scale:
* 24% Snowfall Accumulation
* 10% Snow > 2 in.
* 02% Snow > 4 in.
* 00% Snow > 6 in.
* 00% Snow > 8 in.
* 00% Snow > 12 in.
* 00% Snow > 18 in.
* 20% Precipitation type: All Rain
* 30% Precipitation type: All Snow
* 50% Precipitation type: Hybrid
* 27% Precipitation >0.25 in.
* 12% Precipitation >0.50 in.
* 01% Precipitation >1.00 in.
* 00% Precipitation >2.00 in.
Posted under weather geek