Here’s the set up. We’ll have a stationary front to our north which keeps us in the warm, humid airmass. As impulses of low pressure work from west to east on the front, they will allow for more lift in the atmosphere. This increases our storm chances. Timing these will be a little harder once you get beyond day 2 or 3 on the 7 Day. However, it appears the first impulse will be here on Wednesday afternoon. Large hail and damaging wind will be possible, along with flooding rain.
Here’s a look at the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center’s forecast for five-day rain. This may be conservative if we get some repetitive thunderstorm clusters. In fact, in one day we could get an inch or two out of storms!
So, timing the storms will be the key this week. I don’t expect anything significant Monday night or Tuesday as there really isn’t any forcing out there.
By Wednesday afternoon and evening, some storms could get a little feisty, especially with the near 80 degree temperatures! -ES
Posted under severe weather
This post was written by Eric Sorensen on April 30, 2012