Timing our next two rain events

Look for a brilliant shade of blue overhead Wednesday as high pressure continues to control the weather over most of the Upper Midwest. Temperatures will be a bit warmer, thanks to a southeasterly breeze that will freshen late in the day. We should top out around 91 in Rockford with 93-95 possible for the Dixon-Sterling/Rock Falls area.

Humidity will not be too terrible either with dewpoints projected to stay in the low to mid 60s.

By the time we get into Thursday, showers and thunderstorms will become quite possible…especially late in the day. And once again, these could be prolific lightning producers. We will have to watch for some severe weather (as always), but it looks like widespread damaging thunderstorms should remain out in Iowa and Minnesota. Temperatures will be highly dependent on cloud cover and the arrival of the thunderstorms. Right now, I am going with a 94 for Thursday with the thinking that the peak heating will be gone and done before the thunderstorms move into the metro. This is also good for any outdoor plans as most of the day should end up being quite dry.

A one-day high pressure event is slated for Thursday which should bring quite a bit of sunshine to our area. There won’t be any forcing mechanism to produce storm activity so will side with a mostly sunny sky. The thermal profiles of the atmosphere will remain quite warm so high temperatures will again be in the lower to middle 90s. The only wild card will be the previous day’s rains. If enough rain falls on Thursday, the dewpoints will be higher on Friday. That scenario has it muggier but a little less hot. If dewpoints get into the lower 70s, we’ll likely only see highs around 90 versus 94 or 95.

Saturday looks to be the most active day weatherwise. A powerful shortwave of low pressure will swing through Minnesota and Wisconsin bringing some dangerous thunderstorms to the Northland. If you’re heading up there this weekend, please be mindful of that. A cool front is expected to swing into Northern Illinois and Southern Wisconsin during the afternoon so I’ve bumped up the storm chance to about 50%. In addition, some severe weather and training thunderstorms will be possible. Any flash flood threat will depend on the amount of rain that falls on Thursday. If we keep that rain under a half inch, there won’t be much trouble soaking in any heavy rain Saturday. Tmemperatures will be warm ahead of the front: in the 90s. We’ll temper things a little with middle 80s Sunday through Tuesday.

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Posted under weather

This post was written by qni_it on July 31, 2012

Turning the page to a new month

Today we put the finishing touches on July 2012 and turn the page toward August 2012. Heading into what always seems like the hottest month of the year, let’s break down how temperatures stack up during the month and what we can expect heading into September and the eventual end of this abnormally hot summer. The average high temperature for the month of August is 82.4 degrees in Rockford with August 1st seeing an average high of 84 degrees, and August 31st seeing an average high of 81 degrees. So slowly throughout the month average temps begin to fade as fall approaches. Something else that fades is the amount of time we spend in the sun. On August 1st we will see 14 hours and 27 minutes of daylight. When August 31st rolls around that amount of time will drop to 13 hours and 12 minutes. This means that we lose 1 hour and 15 minutes of sunlight in just 31 days. Rain is a word we haven’t had the privilege of using all that often this summer, but the month of August does average 4.59 inches of rain. These are the averages, however, we are expecting to see an above average month as far as temperature is concerned and a below average month as far as precipiation is concerned. -GB

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Posted under climate/climate change, First Look

This post was written by qni_it on July 31, 2012

Severe Weather Information

CLICK REFRESH TO UPDATE ALL WARNINGS AND STORM REPORTS

(3:32:54 AM) nwsbot: LOT cancels Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Lee [IL]

(3:14:14 AM) nwsbot: LOT cancels Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Ogle [IL]

(2:47:57 AM) nwsbot: LOT continues Severe Thunderstorm Warning [wind: 60 MPH, hail: <.50 IN] for Cook, De Kalb, DuPage, Kane [IL] till 3:00 AM CDT

(2:06:45 AM) nwsbot: LOT issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning [wind: 60 MPH, hail: 1.00 IN] for Boone, Cook, De Kalb, DuPage, Kane, McHenry [IL] till 3:00 AM CDT

2:00am – (1:59:56 AM) ham-vince.wealti: We have a report of pea sized hail via trained spotter in Belvidere in Boone county. He is at the corner of bypass 20 and Big Thunder Bulivard. K9TSU net control for Northern Il. Skywarn. Via amateur radio.

(1:38:35 AM) nwsbot: LOT issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning [wind: 60 MPH, hail: 1.00 IN] for Ogle, Winnebago [IL] till 2:45 AM CDT

(1:25:46 AM) nwsbot: LOT issues SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT for Lake, McHenry [IL] till 2:30 AM CDT

1:24am – A viewer to another media outlet has reported pea sized hail in Durand.

(1:22:15 AM) nwsbot: LOT issues SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT for Boone, De Kalb, McHenry, Ogle, Winnebago [IL] till 2:15 AM CDT

(1:09:27 AM) nwsbot: DVN issues STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING EASTERN STEPHENSON COUNTY for Stephenson [IL] till 2:15 AM CDT

(12:57:13 AM) nwsbot: MKX issues STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO FAR SOUTHEAST GREEN AND FAR SOUTHERN ROCK COUNTIES for Green, Rock [WI] till 1:15 AM CDT

(12:50:28 AM) nwsbot: MKX issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning [wind: 60 MPH, hail: 0.75 IN] for Kenosha, Milwaukee, Racine, Walworth, Waukesha [WI] till 1:30 AM CDT

12:41am – Technical discussion concerning possible severe weather watch. (12:39:32 AM) nwsbot: Storm Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Discussion #1658 [watch probability: 20%] (View text)

12:20am – Not severe yet… (12:17:36 AM) nwsbot: MKX issues STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO NORTHERN GREEN AND ROCK COUNTY for Dane, Green, Rock [WI] till 1:00 AM CDT

12:19am – Thunderstorms with constant lightning will affect Green and Rock, including the cities of Janesville and Beloit through 1:00am. In addition, large hail will be a threat as these storms continue to move southeast. While this lightning show will be great to view, please remain indoors as this will be a dangerous storm. Please stay off of traditional, corded telephones as these can be conduits for an electrical charge. -ES

12:12am – Thunderstorms are capable of producing nickel sized hail in Northern Green County and Northwestern Rock Co. Recent doppler scans show the hail core pulsing up to severe criteria for a time. I wouldn’t be surprised if the storm goes severe for these two counties very shortly. -ES

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Posted under severe weather

This post was written by qni_it on July 30, 2012

No break in our drought conditions for at least a week

While we have some slim chances for thunderstorms here Monday evening and additional storm activity possible this weekend, the forecasted rain from our models will not put a dent in our drought conditions.

The three models that go out seven days average around a half inch of rainfall with the European Model (ECMWF) at only 0.24″. Unfortunately, that has been the model of choice for us so far this summer. To put these numbers in perspective, we should see more than in inch of rainfall during the first week of August.

We’ll continue to monitor the progress of tonight’s storms. If anything heads in our direction, stop back for updates. -ES

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Posted under rain

This post was written by qni_it on July 30, 2012

Slim storm chances this evening.

6:54pm – Here’s a look at the current visible satellite view. The one cell that is trying to pop up in Northeastern Iowa is having a really tough time breaking through a cap of warm air around 25,000 feet. If the storm can’t break the cap, it won’t be very long-lived and others will likely not form. It is neat to see the shadow the cloud top is putting down on the ground to the right.

The front shows little in the way of developing cumulus so this chance of rain may just come and go. -ES

5:00pm – A cool front will progress through the region around 10pm tonight bringing at least a chance of thunderstorms to the region. A few could be severe with some 60mph wind potential, but this threat is mainly confined to Southeastern Wisconsin and Northeastern Illinois. For this reason, a Threatrack-2 is needed for the next few hours. We’ll have to see what develops out in Northeastern Iowa to determine the Rockford Metro’s risk, but the chance warrants a Level-2, 0r low risk, of severe thunderstorms after sunset tonight. -ES

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Posted under Threatrack

This post was written by qni_it on July 30, 2012

July Preliminary Round-Up

This week brings the end of one scorching hot July and hopefully the beginning of a much more bearable August. We have hyped on the heat all month, and with just cause. As of right now this July looks to go down as the hottest ever on record here in Rockford. Previously, our hottest July average temperature was 80.3 degrees set back in 1946. This July’s average temperature through the 29th is 80.9 degrees. If this hold another 48 hours (which it looks to do) then we will officially go in the record books with the hottest July on record. An average of 80.9 degrees doesn’t look that hot upon first glance,  but when you realize that it is a combination of both high and low temperatures, and that it is a value 7 degrees above average, it starts to sound more impressive. This month we saw 20 days at or above 90 degrees and 5 of those topped out over 100! -GB

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Posted under 13 Climate Authority, event, heat wave, record weather, weather

This post was written by qni_it on July 30, 2012

Pleasantly Cool Tonight

With a partly cloudy sky and decreasing winds, temperatures will fall fast Friday night.  In fact, some of us could see the coolest night in nearly 30 days!  Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s and lower 60s for northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin.  The forecast low is 59 degrees for Rockford.  The last time our thermometers reached that low was on June 27, 2012.  Since then, the average low temperature has been a balmy 70 degrees.  Open those windows!

-JA

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Posted under statistics, weather

This post was written by qni_it on July 27, 2012

Medals aren’t all we need to bring back

I’m sure you’re well aware that the Olympic Games start tonight. As the clock ticks down to the open ceremony, many people were afraid that the weather would put a damper on the event. London has seen quite a bit of rain lately, and that is putting it lightly. While we are currently in a severe drought, they have had more rain than they  can handle. Since Jan 1st, London has a surplus of almost 4 inches and we are in the hole by 7.65 inches! This summer alone they have 7 inches to our pathetic 2.73 inches. So let’s not only hope our atheletes bring back plenty of gold medals, let’s hope they can bring some of that moisture with as well! -GB

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Posted under weather

This post was written by qni_it on July 27, 2012

Chirp Chirp

We are going to have an amazing Friday night with low humidity and temperatures around 60 degrees. So if you plan on heading outdoors and don’t want to have to keep checking the temp on your smartphones, just listen to what’s around you. The answer to the temperature lies in the chirps of crickets! Close your eyes, listen closely, and count the number of chirps you hear in a 15 sec time period. Take that number and add 40 to it and you’ll have the temperature! Sound like a myth? Give it a try tonight! -GB

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Posted under humor, weather geek

This post was written by qni_it on July 27, 2012

Thunderstorms developing

5:10pm- A potent upper level low pressure system is currently spinning over Minnesota. This may be the focal point for additional thunderstorms after 10pm tonight. It does not appear there will be much chance for severe weather. -ES

4:00pm – Severe Storm Warning continues for Ogle and Lee County. Look for damaging wind and hail around the Rochelle area in the next 15 minutes. Seek shelter in an interior room, away from windows until this storm passes. -ES

(3:48:10 PM) nwsbot: LOT issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning [wind: 60 MPH, hail: 1.00 IN] for La Salle, Lee, Ogle [IL] till 4:45 PM CDT

We’ve gotten a few reports of pea sized hail in Ogle County around the Leaf River and Forreston areas from  a cluster of thunderstorms. These will continue to move through the Rockford Mero through 5pm and then through the evening for Ogle and Lee Counties. Small hail is possible through the afternoon. No widespread severe weather is expected.

This is a very impressive image taken by NOAA’s Modis Satellite this afternoon. It shows a gorgeous view of this afternoon’s towering clouds. Click on the image and look closely in the center of the shot and you’ll see the natural city outline of Rockford. -ES

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Posted under severe weather, weather geek

This post was written by qni_it on July 26, 2012