New Year’s Eve Snow

radar9:10pm – We’ll get a brief break in the action for a few hours. Perhaps the silver lining in your New Year’s Eve plans. See? I told you not to cancel them! ūüôā Another batch of snow will work in well after midnight, toward dawn. Another few inches are possible, mainly for North-Central Illinois…along the I-88 corridor. Totals will range 4-8″, as expected. -Eric

(9:27 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Loves Park [Winnebago Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M3.5 INCH at 09:13 PM CST — relayed from wrex.

 

(9:54 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: NE Cary [Mchenry Co, IL] cocorahs reports SNOW of M4.2 INCH at 09:45 PM CST — snowfall over the past 8 hours.

(7:53 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Rockford [Winnebago Co, IL] broadcast media reports SNOW of M3.4 INCH at 07:48 PM CST — at wtvo studios.

(7:46 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS MKX: 2 S Janesville [Rock Co, WI] public reports SNOW of M3.5 INCH at 06:45 PM CST — via social media.

7:42 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Belvidere [Boone Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M3.2 INCH at 07:40 PM CST — storm total. 2.3 inches over the past 3 hours.

 

(7:39 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: Stockton [Jo Daviess Co, IL] co-op observer reports SNOW of M3.3 INCH at 07:39 PM CST — light snow continues

(7:13 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Mchenry [Mchenry Co, IL] amateur radio reports SNOW of M3.0 INCH at 07:10 PM CST — still snowing.

 

(6:01 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: Lena [Stephenson Co, IL] trained spotter reports SLEET of M3.00 INCH at 05:59 PM CST — light snow still falling

 

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(6:01 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: 4 SSE Winslow [Stephenson Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M3.0 INCH at 05:59 PM CST — still snowing

 

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(6:09 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: Freeport [Stephenson Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M2.4 INCH at 06:02 PM CST — snow depth is 9 inches

 

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(6:58 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: 6 SSE Council Hill [Jo Daviess Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M4.0 INCH at 06:57 PM CST — storm total. snow has ended.

 

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(7:13 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: Lena [Stephenson Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of E3.0 INCH at 05:59 PM CST — light snow still falling

 

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(7:15 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: 2 NW Freeport [Stephenson Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M3.0 INCH at 07:00 PM CST — received via social media

snowA Winter Weather Advisory is in effect through midday Wednesday. 4-8 inches of snowfall is expected. ¬†The first wave of snow will fall Tuesday afternoon into the evening with a secondary batch developing during the overnight into Wednesday afternoon. Please use extra caution if you’re heading to a New Year’s Eve party. -Eric

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Posted under snow

This post was written by qni_it on December 31, 2013

Snowy Travel for the New Year

heavysnowOur next winter system is bearing down on us.. just in time to make traveling difficult for New Year’s Eve plans. We will see our first flakes by mid-afternoon today, and the snow won’t exit the area until tomorrow afternoon. When all is said and done, we will add 4-8″ of fresh powder on top of our existing snow. A few localized areas even have a shot at seeing a bit more than that! The timing is what will really get us this time around. By midnight, there will already be 3-4″ on the ground in most spots, so driving conditions will not be optimal, and road chemicals will be far less effective thanks to the frigid temperatures. Be extra careful if you head out tonight, and remember buzzed driving is drunk driving. If there was ever a NYE to take extra precautions, plan ahead and be extra alert on the roadways, it is this one. – Greg

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Posted under safety, snow, travel

This post was written by qni_it on December 31, 2013

Strange booms startle many in Northern Illinois

The strange¬†booms you heard on Sunday night weren’t the stomps of Bears or Packers fans, they were likely¬†from cryoseismic activity! Lisa Kammes from Sycamore says “My¬†husband went to the back yard to check on [the booms]. My neighbor called police. We heard lots, until we finally fell asleep at 3am. Kelsey Brown of Pecatonica said it sounded like someone “hitting the side of the house.” In South Beloit, Bobbi Bilderback reports that her dogs¬†started barking. And down the road from her¬†in Rockton, Marcie Severson-Haselton said she heard three loud booms. “My son even woke up and came to our room immediately!” At my house in Southwest Rockford, it sounded like someone threw something heavy onto my roof. For me, it was more of a thud. I didn’t put two and two together until I heard about other people who heard the strange sounds.crysoseisms

Some of you on Facebook¬†were¬†correct when I¬†asked what the strange sounds were from: a cryoseism. Because our ground is pretty dry, the warm air on Sunday allowed water to seep deep into fissures and cracks. The water flowed down into and around the rock and limestone. When¬†the Arctic cold front came through during the day, the temperature dropped quickly. We all know that water expands as it freezes (the reason why soda cans explode when they freeze and why a milk jug of water will expand to a ball-shape if it freezes). The water in all of these cracks¬†expanded so quickly, it created mini explosions…explosions of water and ice all over the region. These booms aren’t enough to physically shake the ground, but they are enough to startle livestock and unsuspecting people!

Cryoseisms are a fairly rare occurrence here in Northern Illinois, as the temperature drop has to be fairly quick…from above freezing to very cold, in a short amount of time. If you heard them, chime in on our Facebook page! -Eric

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Posted under end of the world, weather geek

This post was written by qni_it on December 30, 2013

Snowy 36 Hours

radarHere we are in the midst of our next round of wintry weather! Instead of the real heavy, wet snow, the next day and a half will bring us a very fluffy variety of snow.

First tonight: Snow is likely through the wee hours of Tuesday. Around an inch of snow is expected. But be aware that road chemicals are less effective for every degree below 20¬į. Tonight’s temperature will be in the low single-digits which means it will be that much tougher to melt the snow on the roads. Be careful!
Tonight’s batch will be over shortly after 10pm, completely done by midnight.

Our next winter event arrives around 2pm Tuesday and lasts for a little more than 24 hours. Unfortunately, this will have huge implications on anyone heading to a New Year’s Eve party. On Facebook, I posted something I’d like to share here.

NYEThere will be 3-4 inches of new snow when we ring in 2014 tomorrow night. Here in the Midwest, we can handle that just by slowing down. 

However, the roads will become extremely dangerous for anyone who thinks they can drink and drive. It’s my job to warn you of dangerous weather conditions. Snow and drunk drivers will make for a nasty combination tomorrow night.¬†

I don’t want to hear a news anchor saying your name on Wednesday’s news. I definitely don’t want to hear the names of the people you killed because you got behind the wheel drunk.¬†

Be smart and plan who your designated driver will be. Please, do it tonight!

totalaccumIt looks like we’ll have about 3-4 inches of new snow as we ring in 2014. Another a few inches will fall Wednesday morning bringing totals into the 4-8 inch range. The map to the left shows snowfall accumulation including tonight’s inch from Futuretrack. The RPM model (down and to the right) shows a similar result. Higher totals are possible directly over Chicago, due to a NNE wind off of Lake Michigan Wednesday.

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And then get this: Another 1/2-1″ is possible through the day on Thursday. There’s definitely no shortage of snow and cold in our forecast!

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Posted under snow

This post was written by qni_it on December 30, 2013

Snow Years Eve

As 2013 comes to a close and 2014 is knocking on the door, Mother Nature wants to celebrate with some snow.  A long duration event, spanning Tuesday night through early Thursday morning, will bring accumulating snow to the Stateline.  With this snow event forecast to be spread out over the course of 24 to 36 hours, there are many variables that can and likely will change.

Snow will develop Tuesday evening and target our general area overnight.  A few inches of accumulation are possible from the start of the snow through early Wednesday morning.  A second piece of energy will affect the area Wednesday into Wednesday night, lingering through early Thursday.  It is during this time period that several inches of snowfall will be possible.

Several Inches of Snow Tue. PM - Thu. AM

Several Inches of Snow
Tue. PM – Thu. AM

Atmospheric conditions will allow for a narrow band of moderate snow accumulations stretching from Iowa through our area and east into Michigan.  To put this into perspective, Wisconsin Dells to our north and Peoria to our south may only pick up an inch.  There will likely be an impact on travel conditions in our region for the New Year holiday.

Again, with a prolonged period of snowfall (and since the second half of this system is still 48 hours away), change will be inevitable.  It appears that an acceptable initial snowfall forecast will be in the 3 to 6 inch range.  Locally higher totals are possible.  Chief Meteorologist Eric Sorensen will monitor and refine the forecast tonight, as the latest data becomes available.

-Joe

 

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Posted under snow, travel, weather, winter weather

This post was written by qni_it on December 30, 2013

Round of Light Snow Later Today

A quick-moving¬†Alberta clipper system is already blanketing the area with cloud-cover late this morning. Light snow will move into the western part of our viewing area by late afternoon, overspreading the rest of the area—including¬†metro Rockford—early this evening and tonight.

FutureTrack Tonight

FutureTrack Tonight

Even though there is limited moisture with this system, light snow will fall for several hours. A high liquid-to-snowfall ratio, due in part to the cold air that’s in place, will provide fluffy snow accumulations of around 1 inch.¬† A few locations may pick up a little more.

FutureTrack Snowfall

FutureTrack Snowfall

By midnight, the bulk of the snow will be to our east. There will be a few lingering flurries with some breaks in the clouds, sending temperatures falling to near zero.

-Joe

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Posted under cold blast, FutureTrack, snow, weather, winter weather

This post was written by qni_it on December 30, 2013

Arctic Air Invades

An invasion of Arctic air will bring very cold temperatures for the next several days, including New Years Eve and New Years Day. After reaching the lower 40s in many locations on Saturday afternoon, temperatures will take a nosedive after a cold front blasts through the area during the pre-dawn hours of Sunday morning.

Saturday Afternoon: Low 40s Monday Morning: 10 Below!

Saturday Afternoon: Low 40s
Monday Morning: 10 Below!

Tumbling temperatures will continue throughout Sunday, with single digits likely by evening.  Scattered snow showers may bring a quick dusting of snow during the first half of the day.  A blustery northwest wind, sustained between 15 and 25mph and gusting to 35mph, will really bring a biting feel to the air.  Wind chill values will fall below zero Sunday afternoon.

Dark Blue: Air Temperature Light Blue: Wind Chill

Dark Blue: Air Temperature
Light Blue: Wind Chill

As the sky clears on Sunday night, temperatures will continue their slide to nearly 10 below zero Monday morning.  Wind chill values could dip as low as 20 to 30 degrees below zero.  Single digit high temperatures and below zero low temperatures, along with dangerous wind chills will continue through Thursday.  Conditions will be prime for frostbite, so make sure you take all the necessary steps to keep warm.

What a way to close out 2013!

-Joe

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Posted under cold blast, weather

This post was written by qni_it on December 28, 2013

Are you ready for this?

The cold comparison to normal

The cold comparison to normal

Here we are on a Friday night with temperatures still rising. Our 10pm temperature is 40 degrees with a gusty south wind. Not one of the models is right with this observation! So, old fashioned Meteorology tells me that with a stiff southerly wind continuing, our temperature won’t fall at all. However, the wind will likely come down by morning. This will cause temps to fall to around freezing by morning. Some of the rural valleys with snow on the ground will be much colder…possibly into the high teens! So if you have a quick-changing car thermometer, you may see some wide variations if you’re out early in the morning.

The ECMWF computer model takes us below zero Sunday afternoon!

The ECMWF computer model takes us below zero Sunday afternoon!

On Saturday, temperatures will surge well into the 40s, even with snow on the ground! 45 in Rockford is some 15 degrees above normal. 50s will be possible in far southern Lee County and Southern Illinois could near 60 in spots!

But it all ends there as a significant cold front arrives Saturday night. So get ready for a wild ride with middle 40s Saturday afternoon and single digit temperatures Sunday afternoon! Throw the wind chill factor in there and we’ll have a 50¬į drop in a matter of 18 hours or so!

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Posted under cold blast

This post was written by qni_it on December 27, 2013

Coldest air of the season coming next week

Joe blogged about the return of some milder air for the weekend as temperatures will top out in the middle 30s. But all eyes will be on the extreme cold that moves back into the Upper Midwest next week.

7DAYA cold front will sweep through the Rockford Region Sunday around noon. We’ll be in the middle 20s at that time but by Sunday morning will dip all the way to -8! On Monday, temperatures may not rise above zero with even colder temperatures in here by early Tuesday morning. This past Tuesday we dipped to -11 and this upcoming airmass could produce temps even colder. Right now, you’ll see -10 on our 7 Day. We will be monitoring the next chunk of cold air over the next few days. If you got a new coat, scarf, or gloves for Christmas, you’ll get some good use out of it next week.

What else do you do to stay warm this time of year? I’d like to hear from you! Just send me a tweet right now: http://www.twitter.com/ericsorensen¬†

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Posted under cold blast

This post was written by qni_it on December 26, 2013

Moderating Temperatures

Middle & upper 20s are in the forecast for today.¬† By tomorrow, high temperatures will be right around our climatological¬†average for late December—30 degrees.¬† The mercury will climb a bit more on Saturday, with temperatures reaching the middle 30s and even flirting with 40 in a few spots south of Rockford.

At-or-Above Average Temps Fri & Sat

At-or-Above Average Temps Fri & Sat

Sparing us from the frigid air found over much of northern Canada is¬†the current pattern of our¬†jet stream.¬† With a general zonal flow—that¬†is, west-to-east—our¬†airmass will originate from the Pacific ocean.¬†¬†This west-to-east flow allows¬†our air to be modified by a more temperate region (and not by the bitter cold Arctic circle region).

Zonal Flow

Zonal Flow

Things will change by the second half of our weekend and especially around the New Year holiday.  Our large-scale atmospheric pattern will become more meridional.  You may have guessed that meridional flow is characterized by a more north-to-south jet stream pattern. This will open the gates for Arctic air to slide south, sending air temperatures well below average and below zero.

Thursday Midday Canada Temps

Thursday Midday Canada Temps

Oh, Canada.

-Joe

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Posted under 13 Climate Authority, weather

This post was written by qni_it on December 26, 2013