Strong to severe storms possible Wednesday

June 20, 2016: Happy (official) first day of Summer! We’ve reached the Summer Solstice, or when the Northern Hemisphere is tilted at its maximum toward the Sun.  We get the most direct sunlight on this day, giving us one of the longest days of the year, plus plenty of daytime heating during the summer to provide us with hot weather. The Northern Hemisphere tilts away from the Sun from now through late December, shortening the days and eventually bringing in Fall and Winter.

High temperatures for June 20, 2016

High temperatures for June 20, 2016

It was also fitting that we had the warmest day of 2016 so far in Rockford with a high of 93°!

Now, onto the topic at hand- severe weather, and possibly several rounds of it, are possible Tuesday night through Wednesday evening.  All of the heat and humidity that is leaving the area comes roaring back by Tuesday night, triggering a complex of thunderstorms similar to last Tuesday night.

Severe weather setup for Wednesday morning. A complex (or massive group) of t-storms will erupt overnight, then follow the warm front into the area early Wednesday morning.

Severe weather setup for Wednesday morning. A complex (or massive group) of t-storms will erupt overnight, then follow the warm front into the area early Wednesday morning.

We’ll see those race into the area early Wednesday morning. Strong winds and large hail would be the primary severe threat, with heavy rain possible due to the increasing humidity.

After that, the picture gets much more murky.  Once the morning storms leave, the atmosphere recharges in a big way as heat and humidity continue to surge into the region. We’ll have plenty of warm and very humid air to work with, plus a strong area of low pressure and a warm front will be a lot closer to help trigger storms.

Severe weather setup for Wednesday afternoon. A 2nd round of severe weather is possible, and could be significant with the hot and humid air surging in. However, placement of fronts and boundaries after the early morning storms makes the afternoon placement of storms difficult to predict at this time.

Severe weather setup for Wednesday afternoon. A 2nd round of severe weather is possible, and could be significant with the hot and humid air surging in. However, placement of fronts and boundaries after the early morning storms makes the afternoon placement of storms difficult to predict at this time.

The big question is this: will the low and warm front line up in the right spot to maximize the atmosphere over us and bring severe weather? The overnight to early morning storm complexes, like we’ll see Wednesday morning, tend to leave behind pockets of cool air. Storms may fire up Wednesday afternoon along these pockets, so where will those be placed? It’s hard to say as we are still 48 hours out.  The potential for a second round of severe weather is there; we just need to see where the pieces fall into place.

Possible severe threats for Wednesday afternoon.

Possible severe threats for Wednesday afternoon.

POTENTIAL rainfall for Wednesday. Subject to change.

One model’s thoughts on POTENTIAL rainfall for Wednesday. Subject to change.

If and when we do get severe weather Wednesday afternoon, those storms may be significantly stronger. Tornadoes are possible early in the storms, then large hail and damaging winds may be widespread after that. We’ll also have to watch out for flash flooding. The atmosphere will be very humid, so torrential rain is possible, especially along the fronts.

For right now, expect a quiet Tuesday, then plan for strong thunderstorms on Wednesday. Have your weather radio and other alert devices ready to go. We’ll keep analyzing the situation as new data comes in, and keep you updated leading up to Wednesday morning AND Wednesday afternoon.

-Alex

Share

Posted under weather

This post was written by Alex Kirchner on June 20, 2016

Leave a Comment

Name (required)

Email (required)

Website

Comments

 

More Blog Post

Previous Post: