Average Date of Last 32°

Patchy frost is in the forecast for early Sunday morning and again early Monday morning.  And while we are entering the middle of May, frost is not unheard-of this time of year.

In fact, the latest freezing temperature (32°) observed in Rockford over the current climatological period (1981-2010) is May 27th.  Most climate observation sites across northern Illinois are similar, with the exception of Mount Carroll.  Over the past thirty years, the latest freezing temperature observed in that Carroll County community was June 10th!

On average, the last 32° reading in Rockford is April 27th.  It is interesting to note that in 2013, Rockford has not fallen to 32° since April 26th!  But that could change, since temperatures are expected to fall into the lower 30s both Sunday and Monday morning.  Climatologically speaking, the chance to see such chilly temperatures will continue to decline.  Nine times out of ten, we won’t see temperatures fall below the freezing mark any later than May 14th. -Joe

Posted under 13 Climate Authority, climate/climate change, statistics, weather

Mostly dry weather and seasonably warm temperatures brought a pleasant weekend to the Stateline on May 4th and 5th. With a cut-off low pressure system stalled out in the Tennessee Valley, rain and cool temperatures stayed just to our south.  Since we were on the periphery of a ridge of high pressure, we saw enough breaks in the cloudcover which helped our local temperatures climb into the 70s. 

The forecast for the upcoming work week will stay the course, in terms of mild temperatures.  We’ve got a decent shot at 70 degrees for each and every day of the next five.  This would bring our total of 70 degree days to seven in a row!  The last time we saw such a streak was almost 8 months ago!  September 6th through 12th of 2012 brought Rockford and the Stateline high temperatures of 70 degrees or more.

The return of the mild air is certainly a welcomed sight.  Let’s enjoy it!

-Joe

Posted under 13 Climate Authority, statistics, weather

Saturday marked just the fourth time where temperatures climbed to 70 degrees or more in Rockford.  If you were like me, you probably enjoyed it!  The mild weather has been lacking across the Stateline for much of the year.  When reviewing all 124 days of 2013 (January 1 through May 4), just 15 days have had high temperatures at or above 60 degrees! That’s only 12 percent of all days so far. That figure lowers to just 3 percent, when reviewing days of 70 degrees or greater!

While only one day rose above 60 degrees in January, no days had high temperatures in the 60s (or higher) in February and March!  April saw ten days with high temperatures in the 60s. But it wasn’t until April 29 when Rockford broke the 70 degree mark (75 to be exact)—nearly one month later than the average first 70-degree day!

The forecast for the first full week of May will bring an end to the mild weather drought, so to speak, with at least 5 days at or above 70 degrees! -Joe

Posted under 13 Climate Authority, statistics, weather, weather geek

April 2013 has been consistently cool.  As of this blog post, 17 days have had high temperatures below normal.  When factoring in high and low temperatures, 19 days have been below normal in Rockford.  The last three days of the month, however, will buck the trend.

Sunday’s high temperature is expected to reach 70 degrees in Rockford.  This is significant in many ways.  It will be the first 70 degree day of the year in the Forest City and the first since October 25, 2012!  On average, Rockford usually sees its first 70 degree day around April 2nd.  Sunday April 28th would be the second latest first 70 degree day in Rockford’s climatological history.  The latest first 70 degree day ever observed was May 6, 1971.

-Joe

Posted under 13 Climate Authority, record weather, statistics, weather

Saturday, April 6, 2013 was a mainly cloudy and windy day with scattered showers. However, most of us got to bask in the mildest temperatures of the year. The mercury soared to 69 degrees in Rockford early Saturday afternoon.  This was only the second time in 2013 when temperatures climbed into the 60s!  The other time was on January 3rd (62 degrees).  The 69-degree reading was also the warmest temperature in the Forest City in 123 days!  The last time Rockford hit 70 degrees was on October 25, 2012.  -Joe

Posted under 13 Climate Authority, statistics, weather

Now that March is finally behind us, let’s take a peek at a few April statistics.

The average high temperature for April 1st is 55 degrees with a low of 33 degrees. It sure feels like April was playing a nasty joke on us for April Fools Day today, we were a little over 15 degrees cooler than normal today. Good news is temperatures are trending upward for the rest of the work week and into the weekend. The average high for the last day of the month is 67 degrees with a low of 43 degrees, so there is something to look forward to!

The GFS model forecasts out 16 days and is currently showing the middle of April to have near normal temperatures. Average mid-April temperatures are right around 60 degrees. Now, this forecast is still quite a ways out BUT there is a light at the end of the tunnel! A record high temperature of 93 degrees was set back in 1930 and a record low of 5 degrees set in 1982, however the climate outlook isn’t putting any extremes in our forecast this month. The Climate Prediction Center is showing an average temperature and precipitation trend for the month of April. The GFS 16 day outlook is giving Rockford a potentially wetter than average first half of the month. On the bright side, more April showers brings more May flowers, right? The average precipitation for April is 3.35 inches of rain and 0.9 inches of snow.

A few facts and a small glance at the GFS long range forecast for April. Let’s hope this month is closer to average than the last!

Posted under 13 Climate Authority, climate/climate change, rain, record weather, snow, statistics, weather

Here’s a glance at Rockford’s March 2013 one last time.

If you can believe it, the normal high temperature for Rockford in March is 46.9 degrees. Sadly, March of 2013 brought us an average high almost 10 degrees cooler at 37 degrees. Our average low temperature followed the same trend, being 5.4 degrees cooler than normal. We actually only had 4 days with average temperatures above 40 degrees! What’s even more interesting is that Rockford averages 4 or 5 days of 60+ degrees in March, but this year we had ZERO! As a matter of fact, almost one third of our high temperatures and 94% of our low temperatures were below freezing! Here are two facts we can put some blame on for those cool temperatures: 1) 15 out of 31 days had an average wind flow out of the northwest. 2) 16 out of 31 days averaged cloudy skies.

Now, let’s talk about snow. Finally, a category we were above average in! On March 5th, 2013, Rockford received 9.6 inches of snowfall, crushing the previous record of 5.4 inches back in 1959. Actually, the average snowfall for March in Rockford is 4.8 inches- we almost tripled that! This March, we received 13.9 inches of snowfall. Not to mention, Rockford recorded precipitation for 21 out of 31 days!

Now we can finally say goodbye to cold, snowy March as we spring into April.

Posted under 13 Climate Authority, climate/climate change, record weather, snow, statistics, weather, winter weather

Easter Weather History

Easter is upon us. And this holiday, since it occurs on a different date every year, can wear many hats! For March 31, 2013, the average high is 54 degrees.  The forecast for this year comes pretty close to that. We’ll see temperatures top out near 50 degrees with a gusty west-northwest wind and a partly cloudy sky. A quick sprinkle or two is possible later in the day.

Last year, Easter fell on April 8th. Rockford climbed into the upper 60s for a high.  The warmest (hottest) Easter on record occurred twice. Both April 12, 1925 and April 10, 1977 saw the mercury climb to 84 degrees!  The coldest high temperature and snowiest Easter occurred on March 29, 1964 with a high of just 26 degrees and almost 5 inches of snow!  It’s been as cold as 8 degrees on March 24, 1940. And as the old saying goes, ‘April showers bring May flowers.’ The wettest Easter was just 7 years ago.  Rockford’s official rain gauge measured 1.71″ of rain on April 16, 2006.

-Joe

Posted under 13 Climate Authority, statistics, weather

According to the United States Drought Monitor, Northern Illinois is still abnormally dry and the rest of Illinois is currently not under drought conditions.

Just three months ago, 78% of Illinois was abnormally dry, while 40% was under moderate drought conditions, and 9% (including us) under severe! We can thank those “spring” snow storms, along with the January and February rain and snow showers for pulling all but 16% of Illinois out of dry conditions.

We’ve actually had an excess of precipitation since the start of the year, compared to our normal of 4.82 inches for January, February, and March here in Rockford. January brought us 3.09 inches, slightly less from February at 2.98 inches, and just over 2 and a quarter inches so far this month. These precipitation amounts total to 8.36 inches and nearly double our precipitation totals for the same three months in 2012 (4.63 inches).

There is a little bit of rain and rain/snow mix in the forecast for the weekend, so don’t forget to check the updated U.S. Drought Monitor on Thursday. In the meantime, Northern Illinois will slowly chip away those abnormally dry conditions.

Posted under 13 Climate Authority, climate/climate change, drought, statistics, weather

The 50s.  No, not the 1950s. We’re talking temperatures.  Our thermometers have climbed to 50 degrees or higher just 4 times in Rockford during 2013. 

• January 11th, 50 degrees
• January 12th, 52 degrees
• January 29th, 62 degrees
• February 18th, 52 degrees

During the month of March, temperatures have remained about 12-13 degrees below normal.  We will finally surpass the 50 degree mark this month on Friday and Saturday and make a run for it on Easter Sunday.

-Joe

Posted under 13 Climate Authority, statistics, weather