Sunday will be an uneventful day….the calm before the storm, so to speak. Our attention is focused on Monday, when a wintry mess will push through the Midwest. The next system to impact the Stateline will arrive in the continental United States late Sunday. It will be knocking on our door very early Monday morning.
Model trends continue to track an area of low pressure through southern Iowa, central Illinois, and central Indiana. This track would result in mainly snow for our local area. At the onset, this system will have to overcome dry air in our atmosphere. As moisture from the system evaporates in our atmosphere, the air will cool until precipitation forms and falls to the ground. As a result, a wintry mix of snow, sleet, rain, and freezing rain will be possible very early Monday morning. Ice accumulations will be minor, if any.
As the morning quickly progresses and our atmosphere continues to cool, a change over to all snow is expected in northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. Far southern Whiteside, Lee, and DeKalb County may hang on to a wintry mix through late morning. Temperatures will top out around 30 degrees in Rockford, upper 20s in southern Wisconsin, and lower 30s along the I-88 corridor.
There are still a few “what-if’s” with this system, including speed and exact track. A change in the path of this system of 40 or 50 miles will change our snowfall potential. As far as the timing goes, it appears that the bulk of this system will occur during the daylight hours of Monday. By late afternoon, it should be on its way out. Our first look at potential snowfall shows several inches. The highest totals will fall about 200 miles north of the center of low pressure; it appears central Wisconsin may bear the brunt of the heaviest snow (perhaps 6 inches or more). Again, should the track of the low change, snowfall totals will change.
We will keep you up to date as new information becomes available! What could potentially be the highest or second-highest one-day snowfall event of the winter will be followed by melting snow and above average temperatures by the middle of next week. That could be our silver lining!
This post was written by Joe Astolfi on February 15, 2014