Chris Novy, an experienced Stormchaser was on the roads of Oklahoma City after Friday’s tornadoes, but during Flash Flood Warnings. Because he had a dash camera to document the storms, his ordeal was caught on camera.

 
Chris shares his experience because there are lessons to be learned. He says “I approached a flooded road and made a quick U-turn rather than driving into the water. This was a naturally smart move. Unfortunately my turn resulted in me plunging off a hidden embankment and splashing nose-first right into a swollen creek where I sunk straight to the bottom, I traveled several hundred feet underwater with the car quickly filling up. At one point I was completely surrounded by water and just holding my breath in the darkness. Somehow the driver-side and passenger-side windows broke and I was flushed from the vehicle. I surfaced after a bit and found myself racing down the creek. A cop called out to me and I was able to swim to him and his life-saving grab.” Thankfully, Chris is able to share his story of survival in the hopes of saving someone else’s.

While the phrase “Turn around, don’t drown” is something we Meteorologists use frequently during heavy rain, please remember Chris’ story and never drive through a water-covered roadway. He advises you to “leave more time to process your surroundings.” And that’s not too much to ask!

Posted under flooding, tornado, weather, weather geek

Between 3 and 4 inches of rain came down on Wednesday across Western Illinois. Galesburg got hit the hardest with the rain quickly causing flash flooding. This video was captured by surveillance cameras as the water broke into the main campus of Carl Sandburg College…literally!

Posted under end of the world, flooding

A stalled out warm front that stretched through parts of the Missouri and mid-Mississippi Valleys has caused torrential rain and flooding across much of central and eastern Iowa.   The weekend rainfall total was over 3 inches in Muscatine, just 125 miles southwest of Rockford.  Some locations in central Iowa picked up over 8 inches of rain throughout the weekend!  Even parts of the Illinois River Valley, near Princeton and Kewanee, had flash flood warnings on Sunday evening. 

The majority of the showers and thunderstorms associated with that warm front moved to the southeast, with the remnant light showers affecting the Stateline area during the weekend.   That will change, however. 

The warm front is expected to slowly push north over the next 48 hours, bringing the threat for more frequent rounds of showers and thunderstorms to northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin.  The rain will be scattered in nature, so rainfall totals could be drastically different in Stockton versus Genoa, for example.  While it is tough to pinpoint how much rain will fall across our entire 13-county area, we do have an idea that some of the heavier thunderstorms will contain quick downpours.  Upon analyzing six forecast models and keeping an eye on radar trends, we may very well end up with an inch or even up to two inches of precipitation in spots.  The model outliers are the GFS model (0.83″ of rain in Rockford through Tuesday evening) and the GEM model (2.57″ in Rockford through Tuesday evening).  On average, the rainfall projection is around 1.44 inches, which is consistent with our in-house Adonis FutureTrack Rainfall model.

-Joe

Posted under flooding, FutureTrack, rain, weather

A good indicator when farmers can get in their fields is the soil temperature. Once the temperature of the first four inches of soil reached 50 degrees, seeds are warm enough to germinate.

According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), soil temperatures are 55-60 degrees for most of Northern Illinois with Southern Wisconsin exceeding that 50 degree mark.

So why are we so far behind in planting this year? Too much rain! Imagine that! After a significant drought last year, we are getting too much rainall this year! In fact, some spots in the Midwest saw their rainiest April on record! While our drought is officially over, it continues across the Plains States from South Dakota down into much of Texas.

On average, Illinois farmers are about half way through planting. However this year due to extreme rainfall, only 7% of the corn has been planted.

In Wisconsin, only 4% of the state’s corn has been planted with the average being 26%. Continued dry weather will ensure the number goes up, but rainfall is in the forecast for Illinois and Wisconsin Thursday. Some locations in Northern Illinois could receive in excess of an inch. Wisconsin will remain a bit drier.

Looking at statistics from the USDA for the nation: 12% of the corn is planted which is the slowest pace since 1984. It is very similar to  1993 when much of the Midwest was dealing with record flooding. -Eric

Posted under climate/climate change, drought, flooding, news

This blog post will be music to farmers’ ears! After a drenching April, we will head into May on a drier note. The map to the left is the general weather pattern for late March into much of April. A large area of low pressure was persistent over the Central United States. Persistent low pressure systems brought flooding rains to much of the Midwest, including Northern Illinois and Southern Wisconsin.

Here is the pattern as we head into next week. Notice how far north the jetstream relocates! This will bring much milder air to the Central United States. However, a few cold fronts will bring some rain to the region. Global models through the next 10 days show a much drier pattern with about an inch or two falling…certainly more manageable! -Eric

Posted under flooding

Rain will overspread the area late Monday night into Tuesday. Rumbles of thunder can’t be ruled out but the precipitation will be fairly light overnight into the morning rush. A steadier rain will affect mainly the southeast part of the area during the day on Tuesday.

Futuretrack rainfall is smack dab at a half inch for Rockford. Heavier amounts over an inch are possible where record flooding has gone on in the southwest suburbs of Chicago.

For us, while we don’t need any additional rainfall, it won’t be enough to cause the river levels to rise. However, it may slow the rate at which the rivers have fallen (a few inches) in the past 36 hours. For the record: The Pecatonica River is still holding steady this evening. -Eric

Posted under flooding, rain

I want to extend a sincere ‘Thank You’ to everyone who submitted a photo, email, or other tidbit of information regarding the recent flooding across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin.  Your help has contributed to the better understanding of the effects of flooding along area rivers and creeks. Our thoughts are with those of you affected by the floods.

Aerial photographer Bryan Hunt took a tour of the Rock River on Saturday afternoon in Winnebago County. A big thanks goes out to Bryan for capturing these jaw-dropping images of the flooding. I added a few geographical points of reference to the photos so we know exactly what we are seeing and where we are looking. -Joe

Posted under flooding, photos

Below, you’ll find the information you need concerning area river levels. Note: The blue line represents the observed level. The purple line shows the forecast from the National Weather Service.

Pecatonica River:




Sugar River:

Kishwaukee River:



Rock River:

Posted under flooding

2-Day Rainfall Totals

Thankfully, the heaviest rain is behind us.  Now our attention must focus on the aftermath.  Over the last 36 to 48 hours, rainfall totals throughout northern Illinois added up to 3 or 4 inches with isolated locations picking up close to 5 inches! To put that into perspective, Rockford’s normal rainfall for the entire month of April is 3.35 inches.

Creeks and rivers continue to rise as the runoff from the saturated earth makes its way to the low lying fields and valleys.  Locations along the Rock River, including near Machesney Park , Roscoe, Oregon & Byron are expecting major and even record flood levels into this weekend. Other areas that have been reportedly affected include locations along the Pecatonica, Kishwaukee & Green Rivers, Keith Creek & Willow Creek in Winnebago County, Stillman Creek & Kilbuck Creek in Ogle County, and Yellow Creek in Stephenson County.

Many other creeks & minor streams have reached bankfull and flood stage, causing problems all throughout the Stateline.  While a few showers are possible Thursday afternoon and into Friday, minor additional rainfall totals are expected.

-Joe

Posted under flooding, rain, record weather, safety, weather

As we head into the next 48 hours, heavy rainfall will lead way to the possibility of flooding along rivers and in low-lying areas. It is important to be prepared for this type of scenario, especially if you live in an area that has been prone to flooding in the past. Make sure you communicate with all family members or roommates in order to make sure everyone knows what the plan could be if indeed flooding were to occur. Also, moving valuable objects out of basements and areas that might flood could save a major headache in the long run. A small emergency kit is useful in case of a power outage or the necessity to leave your home due to flooding. Under no circumstances should anyone attempt to drive or walk in rising flood water. Just a few feet of water is enough to wash away a car or trap someone in a current. Again many of these are precautions for severe flooding situations, but it is always better to be safe than sorry! Stay safe and stay dry! Keep tuned in on the Facebook page, as well as right here on the blog for more details as they happen in real time. -Greg

Posted under First Look, flooding, rain, safety, severe weather, weather