Brace yourselves. Clouds and rain are in the forecast….again!  If you thought it’s been cloudy and rainy lately, you are correct.  Looking at the past 30 days, there have been 21 days with at least a trace of rain reported at Chicago Rockford International Airport! 

Sunday will start off mostly cloudy and mainly dry, with just a few isolated showers dotting the radar.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous as we head into the afternoon and evening hours.  A breezy south wind, 10-20mph, will help temperatures rise to near 75 despite the clouds.

This system that is headed our way for Sunday brought severe weather to the Great Plains on Saturday.  While the chance for severe weather is low locally, there is a minimal threat for a few stronger thunderstorms Sunday afternoon. I anticipate the best threat of severe weather to stay just south of our local area, affecting Bloomington, Peoria, Springfield, and St. Louis. 

The showery, thundery weather will continue Sunday night as well.  As the system pushes off to our east, a few lingering scattered showers will remain in the forecast through Monday afternoon. 

-Joe

Posted under FutureTrack, rain, severe weather, Threatrack, weather

A cool Canadian airmass is in place and that means overnight low temperatures are going to be quite chilly for early June.  The GFS model presents the coolest solution for Sunday overnight / Monday early morning, with temperatures in the lower 40s.  The NAM model is trending closer to 50 degrees in spots.

The cloudcover which kept much of the sun’s radiation and warmth at bay during the day has eroded.  And what little warmth there is will re-radiate back out to space.  Our cloud ‘blanket’ has been pulled off the bed, so to speak.  Because of this, I anticipate our temperatures to fall into the middle 40s overnight.  Far northwest Illinois and southern Wisconsin will have the coolest readings.  It could be worse, though.  Northern parts of Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan are expected to dip into the upper 20s and lower 30s!

-Joe

Posted under FutureTrack, weather

A stalled out warm front that stretched through parts of the Missouri and mid-Mississippi Valleys has caused torrential rain and flooding across much of central and eastern Iowa.   The weekend rainfall total was over 3 inches in Muscatine, just 125 miles southwest of Rockford.  Some locations in central Iowa picked up over 8 inches of rain throughout the weekend!  Even parts of the Illinois River Valley, near Princeton and Kewanee, had flash flood warnings on Sunday evening. 

The majority of the showers and thunderstorms associated with that warm front moved to the southeast, with the remnant light showers affecting the Stateline area during the weekend.   That will change, however. 

The warm front is expected to slowly push north over the next 48 hours, bringing the threat for more frequent rounds of showers and thunderstorms to northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin.  The rain will be scattered in nature, so rainfall totals could be drastically different in Stockton versus Genoa, for example.  While it is tough to pinpoint how much rain will fall across our entire 13-county area, we do have an idea that some of the heavier thunderstorms will contain quick downpours.  Upon analyzing six forecast models and keeping an eye on radar trends, we may very well end up with an inch or even up to two inches of precipitation in spots.  The model outliers are the GFS model (0.83″ of rain in Rockford through Tuesday evening) and the GEM model (2.57″ in Rockford through Tuesday evening).  On average, the rainfall projection is around 1.44 inches, which is consistent with our in-house Adonis FutureTrack Rainfall model.

-Joe

Posted under flooding, FutureTrack, rain, weather

The chance for showers and even a few thunderstorms will increase after midnight and into the pre-dawn hours of Sunday.  A nearly-stationary warm front will help to act as trigger for these showers to form. The general direction of the precipitation will be east-southeast along and just north of the warm front.  We will see the scattered showers and thunderstorms continue for the morning hours on Sunday. It looks like we will see a break in the action midday, with just a few isolated showers and an otherwise mostly cloudy sky. Temperatures will reach the lower 60s by afternoon.

More scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will redevelop and dampen our Sunday evening and overnight.  The warm front will remain to our south even into Memorial Day (Monday), so scattered showers and thunderstorms are a possibility yet again.  While severe weather is expected to stay in the Great Plains, some of our thunderstorms may put down heavier rain and small hail.

Don’t forget! You can track the rain on your smartphone with the 13 Weather Authority ExacTrack App.  -Joe

Posted under FutureTrack, rain, Threatrack, weather

Severe thunderstorms and even a few tornadoes were observed across the Great Plains States on Saturday afternoon and evening.  That threat will shift a little further east on Sunday.  The National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center  has issued a moderate risk for severe storms in places such as Kansas City and Joplin in Missouri as well as Oklahoma City and Tulsa in Oklahoma.  These areas will deal with the threat for damaging wind, large hail, frequent lightning, torrential downpours, and possibly a tornado.

There is also a risk for severe weather further north into Minnesota and Iowa for the day Sunday.  By Sunday evening, that threat for a few stronger storms will exist here in northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin.  Hot and humid conditions are expected across the Stateline during the day with temperatures warming into the upper 80s.  Much of the first half of the day will be dry, with just a slight chance for a shower or two.  By late afternoon and early evening, a few thunderstorms will push into the area from the west.  Thunderstorms are not expected to develop in an organized pattern locally, so not all backyards will see the rain.  However, any strong storm we may see late Sunday will carry the primary threats of strong wind and large hail.  Thanks to the setting sun, solar heating (which helps to destabilize the atmosphere and ‘fuel’ thunderstorm development) will come to an end and the threat for stronger storms will decrease quickly after dark.  General showers and weakening thunderstorms will be scattered about the area overnight Sunday and fizzle out by dawn Monday.

Monday continues to have the best chance for severe thunderstorms.  Should we see enough breaks in the cloudcover leftover from Sunday night’s storms, our high temperatures may be similar to Sunday’s.  Otherwise, humid conditions and low 80s are in the forecast.  A vigorous center of low pressure will continue to slide east and shower and thunderstorm development is likely out ahead of it in our area Monday afternoon.  Some thunderstorms have the potential to take on supercell form, which includes the very slight chance for an isolated tornado.  The main concerns for Monday will be damaging straight line wind, large hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall.

Stay tuned to the Weather Blog and WREX.com, or you can follow the 13 Weather Authority on Facebook and Twitter for all of the latest updates regarding the chance for severe weather in northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin.  -Joe

Posted under FutureTrack, rain, safety, severe weather, Threatrack, weather, Wind

Clusters of showers and thunderstorms fired up along a frontal boundary in northwestern Wisconsin, southern Minnesota and northern Iowa on Sunday night. While this activity will likely lose energy and weaken before having an effect on the Stateline, the boundary will continue to push east for Monday.  A few showers are possibly near Dubuque, Iowa and southwestern Wisconsin Monday morning as this activity fizzles out.

While temperatures are expected to warm into the low 70s locally with some sunny breaks, a few showers and thunderstorms may redevelop along and ahead of the boundary on Monday afternoon in northwestern Illinois.  There is some concern that a thunderstorm or two may contain sizeable hail and gusty wind.  While our risk for a severe thunderstorm is low, it is not out of the question…..especially along and west of Interstate 39.

It is important to keep in mind that showers and isolated thunderstorms will be scattered in coverage, so not everyone will get wet. The chance of rain is only 50 percent. Be sure to tune into 13 News Today and 13 News at 5 and 6pm on Monday for the latest details. -Joe

Posted under FutureTrack, Threatrack, weather

Clouds will thicken up overnight as a cold front to our west moves toward the greater Rockford area.

There is a line of showers and thunder associated with this cool front, luckily most of the precipitation will push north and fizzle out as it gets into our area on Monday. FutureTrack is showing only a sprinkle of rain at 0.03″ by tomorrow morning. Dry air moves in toward the late morning, but showers will pick back up around midnight. The bulk of tomorrow will bring you a mix of sun and clouds with temperatures topping out near 67 degrees. We could see around half an inch of accumulated precipitation in Rockford late Monday night through Tuesday evening, with the rest of the viewing area hovering between 0.41″-0.58″.

Posted under FutureTrack, rain, weather

After a pleasant Sunday with ample sunshine and mild temperatures near 60 degrees, things will change a bit for Monday. A cool front that dove south over the weekend will move north as a warm front.  Acting as a triggering mechanism for showers and thunderstorms in Kansas, Nebraska & Missouri on Sunday night, the front will shift north for Monday. The threat for rain will shift north as well.

Just before dawn, a few showers are possible south of Rockford. Beginning around 5 or 6am, showers and embedded thunderstorms are likely across the Stateline.  Rainfall totals will generally reach a tenth or two of an inch. However, with the embedded thunderstorms, heavier totals are not out of the question. The rain should clear out after the morning hours. During the afternoon & evening hours, a few quick showers are possible. Otherwise, we’ll hang onto a mostly cloudy sky and mild temperatures. Highs will top out in the middle 60s in Rockford & across much of northern Illinois.  Along and south of the Interstate 88 corridor, some backyards will flirt with 70 degrees!  With the frontal boundary stalling out over southern Wisconsin, temperatures will top out a few degrees cooler there.

With the frontal boundary hanging around the Stateline through Wednesday, rounds of showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast.  -Joe

Posted under FutureTrack, rain, weather

Scattered showers with embedded thunder are likely tonight along a cool front that will move east out of Iowa. Rainfall amounts will generally be light….under a tenth of an inch. However, as of 7pm Saturday, thundershowers with heavier rainfall rates have developed in eastern Iowa. Some locations in the path of these thundershowers may pick up a couple of tenths of an inch of rain.

By midnight, the chance for rain will decrease rapidly. The sky will begin to clear out by dawn.  A weak area of high pressure will keep things calm on Sunday with a mix of sun and clouds and light wind. High temperatures will be in the middle 50s north of Rockford and in the upper 50s to the south. I expect highs to top out around 57 in the Forest City.  The Sauk Valley area of Dixon, Sterling & Rock Falls will flirt with 60 degrees.  If your travels take you east to Chicago & Milwaukee, temperatures will rise to near 50 degrees early and then fall into the 40s during the afternoon thanks to a cool breeze off of Lake Michigan.

-Joe

Posted under FutureTrack, rain, travel, weather

High pressure will be in firm control across the Stateline on Wednesday.  As the ‘big blue H’ drifts southeast from Minnesota and eventually into Ohio, we can expect a nearly calm wind, mainly clear sky, and abundant sunshine.  With the lack of cold air advection, our high temperatures will be able to rise into the upper 40s.  By late in the day, the area of high pressure will be to our east. Since wind flows clockwise around an area of high pressure—we’ll begin to see a south-southwest breeze—transporting in the warmer temperatures from the south.  The milder air will make itself known across the region on Thursday as temperatures will climb into the upper 50s and even touch 60 degrees in a few spots!

A cool front will drop south out of Wisconsin late Thursday, shifting our wind out of the northeast for Friday.  While this will knock temperatures down, ample sunshine and the strong early-April sun angle will keep our highs in the lower 50s on Friday.

-Joe

Posted under FutureTrack, weather, Wind