Chilly Mid-July Low Temperatures

Wednesday morning’s low temperatures were a bit on the chilly side! Although we are in the middle of July, temperatures bottomed out in the upper 40s and lower 50s across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. These kind of temperatures are what we usually expect in mid-May or mid-September!

Weds. July 16, 2014 Low Temps.

Weds. July 16, 2014 Low Temps.

Rockford did not reach a record low temperature, however. The record low for July 16th is 46 degrees from the year 1945. Rockford bottomed out at 50 this morning. It could have been worse, though. Parts of northern Wisconsin and Minnesota fell into the upper 30s!

Chilly Weds. Morning in Wisconsin

Chilly Weds. Morning in Wisconsin

The forecast for Thursday morning remains cool. Low temperatures may flirt with the record low of 49 degrees, set in 1976.

FutureTrack: Another Cool Morning Thursday

FutureTrack: Another Cool Morning Thursday

If you’re wondering when things are going to warm back up around here, check out THIS BLOG POST.

-Joe

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Posted under cold blast, FutureTrack, record weather, statistics, weather

This post was written by Joe Astolfi on July 16, 2014

What Month is it?!

Unseasonably cool air will stick around for the next couple of days. Even though the calendar says it’s the middle of July, our temperatures will keep things feeling like it’s the middle of September! Our average high temperature this week is 85 degrees. Our average low is right around 63 degrees. Statistically speaking, this is usually the warmest time of the year.

Forecast Low & High Temperatures vs. Normal

Forecast Low & High Temperatures vs. Normal

Our low temperatures will bottom out in the 50s through Saturday morning. It appears that our record low temperatures will remain untouched. Record low temperatures for the next couple of days are in the middle 40s. However, a couple of our usual cool spots may dip below 50 degrees for an hour or two, especially Wednesday morning.

Low 50s (maybe even cooler Wednesday morning)

Low 50s (maybe even cooler Wednesday morning)

High temperatures will be hard-pressed to reach 70 degrees Tuesday afternoon!

Barely Hitting 70 on Tuesday

Barely Hitting 70 on Tuesday

After Tuesday, though, high temperatures will increase a couple of degrees every day. Here’s a look at the 7-Day Forecast; temperatures will be comfortably mild by the end of this week. Next week, there is a good chance for us to see a string of days with above normal temperatures.

-Joe

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Posted under cold blast, FutureTrack, statistics, weather

This post was written by Joe Astolfi on July 14, 2014

Drying Out a Bit

We are going to get some much needed dry time over the next 60 hours or so! Our weather pattern remains similar to what we’ve experienced for most of the summer. With a jet stream diving out of Canada, a northwest flow pattern will allow numerous weather systems to quickly move through the Stateline area.

Our Weather Pattern

Our Weather Pattern

The good news is that the chance of rain through Thursday night is slim to none. At most, a quick shower or two will dot the sky. Otherwise we will get to enjoy many hours of sunshine and pleasant temperatures. Highs will be in the upper 70s and lows will be in the middle-to-upper 50s through Friday (some may call it a perk of a northwest flow pattern)!

FutureTrack Rainfall through Thursday: Little to None

FutureTrack Rainfall through Thursday: Little to None

Rain has been plentiful over the last several weeks. The month of June is in the record books for the 8th wettest June in Rockford’s climate history, thanks to over 8 inches of rainfall. It rained on 20 out of 30 days during June 2014! The month of July is currently on par for rainfall. It rained on 4 out of 8 days so far this month.

Rainy Meteorological Summer So Far

Rainy Meteorological Summer So Far

We actually had rainfall deficits for March, April and May. The rain so far this summer has more than made up for it. Our yearly precipitation total is almost 19 inches which is slightly above average. Looking ahead, the best chance of rain will come Friday and into this weekend with scattered thunderstorm activity each day.

-Joe

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Posted under 13 Climate Authority, FutureTrack, rain, statistics, weather

This post was written by Joe Astolfi on July 8, 2014

June Rainfall Surplus

The chance for rain has been in the forecast for a while, and it’s going to stay there through the end of the month! We kicked off June 2014 with some rain and thunderstorm activity. Rainfall for the first week of the month added up to just under an inch. Close to another inch of rain fell in the span of two days during the second week of June.

June 2014 Rainfall (through June 24th)

June 2014 Rainfall (through June 24th)

Rainfall totals began to accelerate during the third week of the month. At Chicago Rockford International Airport, nearly 4 inches of rain fell from June 15th through June 21st. Other parts of our area, particularly south and west of Rockford, picked up as much as 8 to 10 inches of rain that week!

FutureTrack Rainfall Potential

FutureTrack Rainfall Potential

Rainfall is now at a surplus for the month of June. For the year, however, we are below average…..but not by much. Even though we’ll hang onto the chance for rain through the end of June, the heaviest rain looks to stay out of northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. Long range models are giving us between a quarter and one inch through next Monday.

-Joe

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Posted under FutureTrack, rain, statistics, weather

This post was written by Joe Astolfi on June 24, 2014

Heavy Rainfall

A nearly stationary frontal boundary is to blame for the heavy rain and flash flooding that affected a large swath of real estate in northern Illinois. Showers and thunderstorms developed along the front Wednesday evening through Thursday morning. Thunderstorm activity sustained itself over the same area for almost 12 hours!

The result was extremely heavy rain, some hail, and plenty of flooding. The hardest hit areas included much of western and southern Lee County, northern Ogle County, far eastern Whiteside County, Carroll County, and western Jo Daviess County. Creeks and streams have filled up and there is a lot of standing water in area farm fields.

Radar-estimated Rainfall

Radar-estimated Rainfall

Isolated pockets of 4 to 6 inches of rain fell along the Route 72 corridor from near Lanark east to Monroe Center, including Shannon, Forreston, Byron, Stillman Valley and Davis Junction. The Dixon, Sterling and Rock Falls area picked up similar rainfall amounts. Southern Lee County—south of Amboy and Sublette—had radar-estimated rainfall totals greater than 8 inches!

More on the Way?!

More on the Way?!

Looking ahead to Thursday evening and overnight, more heavy rain is an unfortunate possibility across our region. Another couple of inches is not out of the question where heavier thunderstorms persist. -Joe

Similar Set-Up for Tonight

Similar Set-Up for Tonight

Local Rainfall Reports over 2 Inches

(observations are recorded by volunteers and submitted to the National Weather Service)

  • Lanark 5.79″
  • Dixon – 5.14″
  • Rock Falls – 5.01″
  • Dixon – 4.97″
  • Mount Carroll – 4.63″
  • Amboy – 3.72″
  • Mount Carroll – 3.07″
  • Galena Territory – 3.04″
  • Sterling – 3.02″
  • DeKalb – 2.70″
  • Amboy – 2.58″
  • Elburn – 2.55″
  • Galena – 2.48″
  • Byron – 2.46″
  • Davis Junction 2.23″
  • Ashton – 2.18″
  • DeKalb – 2.10″
  • Malta – 2.08″
  • Sugar Grove – 2.06″
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Posted under Exactrack|HD, flooding, FutureTrack, rain, weather

This post was written by Joe Astolfi on June 19, 2014

Hazy, Hot & Humid

The summer solstice arrives at the end of this week, so it looks like Mother Nature is cranking up the heat and humidity just in time. High temperatures this week will generally reach the mid-to-upper 80s with many of us flirting with that 90-degree mark.

This Week in a Nutshell

This Week in a Nutshell

When we factor in the humidity—which will become much more noticeable tonight through the middle of the week—there will be some discomfort in the air. Heat index values will rise into the 90s for at least Tuesday and Wednesday.

Tuesday Heat Index: 90s

Tuesday Heat Index: 90s

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast every day this week, although much of the time will be dry. Off-and-on rounds of thunderstorms will roll through the region every 18 to 24 hours or so. There is the risk for stronger storms with locally heavy downpours and high wind. We will be monitoring the severe threat through Wednesday.

Threatrack: Overnight through Tuesday Morning

Threatrack: Overnight through Tuesday Morning

The spotty coverage and timing of thunderstorms and left-over thunderstorm clouds to our west will affect what happens here in the Stateline. Keep it tuned to the 13 Weather Authority for the latest information.

-Joe

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Posted under FutureTrack, severe weather, weather

This post was written by Joe Astolfi on June 16, 2014

Storm Chances Dwindle for a Day

After a round of heavy rain with only a few claps of thunder this morning, the rest of the day is looking fairly dry. A stray shower may pop up here or there, but our chance for rain will continue to decrease throughout the rest of the day.

stormchances

Temperatures should still warm into the lower 80s. The humidity and breezy southwest wind will stick around before a cold front moves through, setting the stage for a more comfortable and mostly sunny Tuesday.

More Storms Early Weds.

More Storms Early Weds.

After midnight Tuesday and especially into early Wednesday morning, our chance for rain and thunderstorms with rise. Some of the storms may border on severe limits, with strong wind, hail, and heavy rain.

Threatrack Level 2: Weds AM

Threatrack Level 2: Weds AM

The worst of the weather is expected to stay just to our southwest, but I’d recommend being “weather-aware” before you go to bed Tuesday night!

-Joe

 

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Posted under FutureTrack, severe weather, Threatrack, weather

This post was written by Joe Astolfi on June 2, 2014

Memorial Day Weekend 2014: Mighty Fine Forecast

A beautiful holiday weekend lies ahead of us! Ample sunshine and a bright blue sky is in the forecast for Saturday. Temperatures will rise into the mid-to-upper 70s across much of northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. If you’re headed east toward Lake Michigan, expect cooler air thanks to the cold lake water. Mainly clear skies will stick around Saturday night with lows in the lower 50s.

FutureTrack Saturday

FutureTrack Saturday

Sunday will be even warmer, with highs pushing 80 degrees. A mostly sunny day will include a few more clouds than Saturday, especially by afternoon. A widely-isolated shower is possible after dark. An isolated thunderstorm is possible overnight as temperatures stay comfortable, falling to near 60.

FutureTrack Sunday

FutureTrack Sunday

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will enter our forecast for Memorial Day as temperatures warm up into the lower 80s. We’ll notice an increase in humidity on Monday as well. Our chance of rain is 50% so we will have plenty of dry time with some peeks of sunshine!

-Joe

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Posted under BBQ Alert, FutureTrack, sunlight, weather

This post was written by Joe Astolfi on May 23, 2014

Onward & Upward

Good news! Our temperature trend is moving in the positive direction again. The next seven days will see high temperatures much closer to average. The middle of May has an average high in the lower 70s, not the 50s like we’ve witnessed the past week.

The Week Ahead

The Week Ahead

Sunday will be mostly sunny, mild and pleasant. High temperatures will rise into the upper 60s. Sunday, however, will be the coolest day of the week!

FutureTrack: Sunday afternoon

FutureTrack: Upper 60s on Sunday

An area of high pressure will drift east through the Ohio Valley. Since air moves clockwise around an area of high pressure, we will notice a wind direction with a southerly component. A southerly wind will help warm things up!

Warmer Winds

Warmer Winds

Monday will be very similar to Sunday, in terms of temperature. By mid-week, temperatures will rise well into the 70s and make a run for 80 in a few spots.

FutureTrack: Pushing 70 on Monday

FutureTrack: Pushing 70 on Monday

We will have to watch out for a few isolated shower and thunderstorm chances this week, mainly on Monday night, Tuesday and next Saturday.

-Joe

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Posted under FutureTrack, weather

This post was written by Joe Astolfi on May 17, 2014

Keep an Eye to the Sky

A good swath of the Midwest will be under the gun for the risk of severe weather today. Locally, we will see warm and even humid conditions for the better part of Mother’s Day. Temperatures will rise into the upper 70s and flirt with 80 in a few spots.

The main player in our forecast is a warm front positioned across Missouri and southern Illinois. As this warm front lifts north this afternoon and evening, scattered thunderstorms will develop along it. Some of these thunderstorms will be on the strong-to-severe side.

T'Storms along the Warm Front

T’Storms along the Warm Front

Weather forecast models vary on the exact timing of thunderstorm development. It appears that late afternoon into the after-dark hours will be the time frame. This will allow plenty of heating to take place during the day, which will help fuel any thunderstorm development.

Strong winds over 60mph, sizeable hail, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, and torrential rain will be possible in a severe thunderstorm. There is a risk of tornadoes today, primarily over Iowa and Kansas. However, some rotation is possible with local storms…..something which we will be monitoring.

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There is no need to panic, but today is a good day to be weather aware! If you haven’t already, I’d recommend downloading our 13 Exactrack app for your smart phone. It’s free and has a few of the tools we use to track the weather!

-Joe

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Posted under FutureTrack, safety, severe weather, weather

This post was written by Joe Astolfi on May 11, 2014