Drought Monitor

Spring is upon us. Farmers and gardeners are paying close attention to the forecast, especially this time of year. As we all know, rainfall is a key ingredient for healthy crops, fruits, vegetables, and flowers in northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin.

Many of us begin to monitor how much rain we receive. Government agencies such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) provide weekly updates of the U.S. Drought Monitor. This tool keeps track of rainfall deficits and dry conditions across the country.

Apr. 17 Drought Monitor

Apr. 17 Drought Monitor

Thursday’s update shows that abnormally dry conditions are present in parts of our area.  A portion of northwestern Illinois roughly bounded by US Route 20 on the north, US Route 30 on the south, the Rock River on the east, and the Mississippi River on the west is drier than normal.

Rainfall Statistics

Rainfall Statistics for Meteorological Spring

While 1.71 inches of rain has fallen in Rockford during the month of April, just 1.03 inches of precipitation fell in March. Based on historical averages, we have a rainfall deficit of nearly an inch-and-a-half. This deficit is slightly higher in the area highlighted above.

We could use a little rain around here! A few showers are in the forecast for late-day Sunday and Monday, although current forecast trends give us less than a quarter-inch of rain.

-Joe

 

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Posted under 13 Climate Authority, drought, First Look, rain, statistics, weather

This post was written by Joe Astolfi on April 17, 2014

Flood Watch

Flood Watch is in effect for northwestern Illinois and southern Wisconsin through Monday morning. Our local Illinois counties under this watch include Carroll, Jo Daviess, Stephenson and Whiteside. Our local Wisconsin counties under a Flood Watch include Green, Rock and Walworth.

Flood Watch

Flood Watch

Additionally, a Flood Watch is in effect for the Kishwaukee River in southern Winnebago County for possible rising water early this week. Periods of rain with embedded thunder will continue through Sunday afternoon, evening and overnight. Rain will be heavy at times, especially in the evening and nighttime hours.

Weekend Rainfall through 3pm Sunday

Weekend Rainfall through 3pm Sunday

Local rainfall totals from Saturday through early Sunday afternoon have varied across the area, with Rockford picking up about half an inch. Parts of Jo Daviess County and much of southern Wisconsin have seen their rain gauges add up to nearly an inch.

Additional Rainfall Potential through Monday Morning

Additional Rainfall Potential through Monday Morning

Additional rainfall of one to two inches is possible overnight through early Monday morning.

-Joe

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Posted under Exactrack|HD, flooding, FutureTrack, rain, weather

This post was written by Joe Astolfi on April 13, 2014

Rainy Sunday

Periods of rain, even some embedded thunderstorms, will end our weekend on a wet note.  Rain will be off-and-on throughout the day. FutureTrack suggests a break in the action early Sunday morning.

FutureTrack Sunday morning: few showers

FutureTrack Sunday morning: few showers

By late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night, rainfall may be heavy at times. Plenty of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and a frontal boundary draped through the area will provide some generous rainfall totals.

FutureTrack Sunday evening: heavy rain

FutureTrack Sunday evening: heavy rain

By the time things quiet down in the pre-dawn hours of Monday morning, a good one to two inches of rainfall will be possible.

Rainfall Potential: 1-2"

Rainfall Potential: 1-2″

We will dry things out for Monday evening and Tuesday.

-Joe

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Posted under FutureTrack, rain, weather

This post was written by Joe Astolfi on April 13, 2014

Weekend Rain Outlook

1This afternoon will be one of the warmest of the year with highs in the upper 60s, and we will only get warmer tomorrow with highs in the 70s for the first time since October! But, by late in the day, things will quickly begin to change. We will introduce a chance for some rain showers and could even pop off a few thunderstorms late tomorrow afternoon into the evening/overnight. Scattered rain showers will be likely Sunday-Tuesday as well as we usher in much cooler air (highs in the 40s) for the beginning of next week. – Greg

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Posted under rain, weather

This post was written by GregBobos on April 11, 2014

All in the Timing

It has been smooth sailing so far this week with highs in the 60s and plently of sunshine to go around. Aside from a few popcorn showers Monday and Tuesday, the week has been nearly picture perfect. That trend will continue as we head into the weekend, at least with respect to the comfy temps. Highs will continue to break the 60 degree mark straight through Saturday. However, we have a pretty decent shot as some scattered showers and possibly a boom of thunder during the first half of tomorrow. Capture

The big transition day comes this weekend. Our highs will try their best to make it into the upper 60s and approach 70 on Saturday, but an incoming cold front might keep us dreaming of a 70. It will be a race between the front and the temperatures. If the front wins and we begin to cloud up in the afternoon hours, the temperatures will lose and we will be capped to highs in the mid 60s. If the front holds off and we don’t see our first clouds and showers until closer to dark, 70 is looking pretty promising! – Greg

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Posted under First Look, rain

This post was written by GregBobos on April 9, 2014

Warmest Stretch of the Year

morelocal1This week’s forecast is looking to be one of the warmest we have seen in months! High temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will be in the low to md 50s, just a tad below average. However, Wednesday through Saturday will bring us four days in a row in which the Fahrenheit will be at or above 60 degrees! Thursday and Saturday actually have a shot at the upper 60s! We will be dodging a few slight chances for showers as we head thoughout the week, but no wash-outs are expected. Enjoy the warmth!  – Greg

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Posted under heat wave, rain

This post was written by GregBobos on April 7, 2014

April Showers

Mild temperatures are finally in the forecast for an entire week, as the 7-Day Forecast shows. But our overall weather pattern will be a bit unsettled. There is a chance of rain on five of the next seven days.

aprilshowers

No need to worry though—it won’t be a complete washout. On Monday and Tuesday, northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin will be sandwiched in between two weather systems. Heavy rain is a good bet southeast of our area, including the southern suburbs of Chicago, Indiana, Kentucky and Ohio. Some steady showers are likely across Iowa with another system to our west.

showers

We will be caught in the middle, so a few showers will be possible Monday afternoon, Monday night and Tuesday. Showers will be widely scattered and light, with a tenth of an inch of rain at best.

Futuretrack: Now through Tuesday Evening

Futuretrack: Now through Tuesday Evening

Rainfall has been scarce lately and we could use some. Looking at the rest of the week, rain chances will continue to be small. A few showers (rumble of thunder?) will be possible again late Thursday. A better chance of rain may be in the works for next weekend.

-Joe

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Posted under FutureTrack, rain, weather

This post was written by Joe Astolfi on April 6, 2014

Rain may end with snow on Friday

namIt’s no April Fool’s Day joke! There are a few scenarios that bring a big snowstorm to the Midwest Friday. The NAM model puts down about a foot of snow from East Central Iowa into Western Wisconsin (image to the left). The DGEX model brings this system even further to the east (over Northern Illinois and Southern Wisconsin). However, the reliable ECMWF and GFS are absent of much accumulating snow at all.

RAINWhat is certain is we’ll get quite a bit of rain! Current two-day projections have more than an inch coming, especially southeast of Rockford. There shouldn’t be a chance of flooding with this, other than localized ponding on the roads. We’ll watch the rivers rise a foot or so…but nothing that will get them out of their banks.

And we’ll remain in an active pattern with repeated chances for rain in the coming weeks. This is great news as the growing season is only a little over a month away!

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This post was written by Eric Sorensen on April 1, 2014

April Showers

LeAnne Nichols Myers DavisJCTOur first round of April showers will make it here as soon as tomorrow afternoon. Sadly our temperatures will not follow a spring-like pattern (highs in the 40s through Saturday). As far as the rain goes, scattered showers will develop late afternoon into tomorrow evening  with the best chances for rain being south of the Rockford area, along the I88 corridor. Rain is also likely on Thursday and Friday with the heaviest amounts, again, staying to the south. Some places could pick up an inch of rainfall or more! – Greg Untitled

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This post was written by GregBobos on April 1, 2014

Signs of Spring

RAINToday we will make it up to around 40 degrees, which is considerably warmer than yesterday, but still not even close to where we should be this time of the year (mid 50s). The good news is that in the next 7 days we have a few signs of spring ahead. Warmer temperatures and spring showers will both impact the Stateline. We only have two days in the next 7 that have a shot at being above average, and those will fall on Sunday and Monday when we could be up near 60 degrees. Our chances for showers and even an isolated thunderstorm or two will be tonight into tomorrow and as we head into next week on Monday. Tonight, we can expect scattered showers to settle in and don’t be caught off guard if you hear a brief rumble of thunder or two. Tomorrow, you won’t want to leave home without the umbrella because scattered showers and heavy rail will persist on and off throughout the day. – Greg

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Posted under First Look, rain

This post was written by GregBobos on March 26, 2014