Thursday’s Severe Threat

The threat for severe thunderstorms still exists on Thursday.

Before we get there, we see the development of showers and thunderstorms overnight on Wednesday, producing a quarter to a half inch of rainfall. As of right now, these thunderstorms do not look to have the capabilities of turning severe. Same story as we head into early Thursday morning. Scattered showers and possibly thunderstorms can occur. The chance of these posing a severe threat is low, but I DO NOT want to rule out the chance completely.

4-8-15 timing

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Storm Prediction Center has much of Illinois (including the Stateline) under an enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms.

4-8-15 spc convective outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We start to see the potential for these to turn severe as we head into the early afternoon. As of right now, it looks like thunderstorms will continue to develop and pose a severe threat between 1PM and 6PM on Thursday.

If these t’storms turn severe, the possible threats include damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes. Now is the time to start thinking of your safe place at home, work, and school. Please remember, tornado sirens are for outdoor warnings within ear’s reach. A NOAA Weather Radio is a great way to receive weather alerts indoors.

4-8-15 expect

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

In the hours ahead, key ingredients to producing severe thunderstorms can change quickly. We will continue to analyze new information throughout the day. Chief Meteorologist Alex Kirchner will have the latest on 13 News at 5, 6 and 10 tonight, to let you know if the timing or the threat for these storms changes.
Keep up with us on Facebook at www.facebook.com/13wxauthority and online at wrex.com/weather for the latest information.

 

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Posted under rain, science, severe weather, tornado, weather, Wind

This post was written by Morgan Kolkmeyer on April 8, 2015

The Easter ‘Punny’ is Here!

We’ve got an EGGStraordinary forecast in store for the Easter bunny this year! As you SCRAMBLE to find plastic eggs during your early egg hunts, morning temperatures will rise to the middle to upper 40’s. HOPPING into the afternoon, temperatures will SPRING into the low to middle 60’s! HOPfully you like your Easter eggs SUNNY SIDE UP, because we’ll CRACK open the clouds and make way for sunshine. Unfortunately, we won’t have an EASTERly wind, as a high pressure system will funnel in a southwesterly wind throughout the day. To all the CHICKS out there, your HARE may be blowing around so you may want extra hairspray. Winds will be gusting up to 30mph. Don’t worry, it should still be an EGGSHELLent afternoon.

EASTER PUN

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

If you’ve had an OEUF of the clear sky, we work in some clouds later Sunday night, with a slight chance for a SPRINKLE.

Have a great Easter, YOLKS!

-Morgan

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Posted under humor, rain, science, sunlight, weather, weather geek

This post was written by Morgan Kolkmeyer on April 3, 2015

Unusual March

We’ve been so excited for the temperatures this March, the lack of rain and snow has gone unnoticed.

During the month of March, Rockford usually sees 2.3″ of rain. So far, we’ve seen less than half an inch! On average, we usually see almost 5″ of snow. Cut that in half- that’s as much as we’ve seen so far this month.

march so far

However, we could add to that as we head into the start of next week. We’ve got a chance to see some snow heading into Monday, which would bring us a little closer to that average mark.

Not only have we had very little snow and rain this month, but the precipitation that we’ve gotten, all fell in one day (March 3rd)!

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Posted under 13 Climate Authority, rain, science, snow, weather, weather geek

This post was written by Morgan Kolkmeyer on March 20, 2015

It Rained; It Poured

Scattered showers and thunderstorms pulsed up across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin on Friday. While not everyone got wet, those who did got soaked! So much rain fell in the Forest City that Flash Flood Warnings were issued. Standing water was everywhere.

august1st

A new record was achieved in Rockford. The airport picked up 1.35 inches of rain in about two hours on August 1, 2014. This set the record for maximum daily rainfall. In other words, it has never rained so much on any August 1st since records began in 1906. The old record for maximum daily rainfall was 1.32 inches in 2000.

-Joe

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Posted under 13 Climate Authority, rain, record weather, statistics, weather

This post was written by qni_it on August 2, 2014

Rain is a Good Thing

Thanks to the spotty nature of our shower and thunderstorm activity over the last couple of weeks, many of us are looking for some beneficial rainfall. The weather observation site at Chicago Rockford International Airport reported a just few sprinkles the last two days. The last two weeks have been nearly bone dry across the area as well. Our lawns, gardens, and farm fields are thirsty!

June Surplus, July Deficit

June Surplus, July Deficit

Meteorological summer kicked off in a wet fashion. The month of June was the 8th wettest June on record in Rockford with 8.06 inches of rainfall. The first half of July followed suit with 2.44 inches of rain falling through the 15th. The second half of July has been anything but rainy. Just 0.02 inches of rain fell in Rockford from July 16th through July 30th. The month is now in the red for normal rainfall, down 1.35 inches.

Beneficial Rain Not in the Forecast Through the Weekend

Beneficial Rain Not in the Forecast Through the Weekend

Looking ahead through this weekend, we will hang onto the slight chance for a few showers (even a rumble of thunder Friday). Since these isolated showers will not affect every corner of northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin, rainfall totals will be slim unfortunately.

-Joe

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Posted under 13 Climate Authority, FutureTrack, rain, weather

This post was written by qni_it on July 30, 2014

Drying Out a Bit

We are going to get some much needed dry time over the next 60 hours or so! Our weather pattern remains similar to what we’ve experienced for most of the summer. With a jet stream diving out of Canada, a northwest flow pattern will allow numerous weather systems to quickly move through the Stateline area.

Our Weather Pattern

Our Weather Pattern

The good news is that the chance of rain through Thursday night is slim to none. At most, a quick shower or two will dot the sky. Otherwise we will get to enjoy many hours of sunshine and pleasant temperatures. Highs will be in the upper 70s and lows will be in the middle-to-upper 50s through Friday (some may call it a perk of a northwest flow pattern)!

FutureTrack Rainfall through Thursday: Little to None

FutureTrack Rainfall through Thursday: Little to None

Rain has been plentiful over the last several weeks. The month of June is in the record books for the 8th wettest June in Rockford’s climate history, thanks to over 8 inches of rainfall. It rained on 20 out of 30 days during June 2014! The month of July is currently on par for rainfall. It rained on 4 out of 8 days so far this month.

Rainy Meteorological Summer So Far

Rainy Meteorological Summer So Far

We actually had rainfall deficits for March, April and May. The rain so far this summer has more than made up for it. Our yearly precipitation total is almost 19 inches which is slightly above average. Looking ahead, the best chance of rain will come Friday and into this weekend with scattered thunderstorm activity each day.

-Joe

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Posted under 13 Climate Authority, FutureTrack, rain, statistics, weather

This post was written by qni_it on July 8, 2014

June Rainfall Surplus

The chance for rain has been in the forecast for a while, and it’s going to stay there through the end of the month! We kicked off June 2014 with some rain and thunderstorm activity. Rainfall for the first week of the month added up to just under an inch. Close to another inch of rain fell in the span of two days during the second week of June.

June 2014 Rainfall (through June 24th)

June 2014 Rainfall (through June 24th)

Rainfall totals began to accelerate during the third week of the month. At Chicago Rockford International Airport, nearly 4 inches of rain fell from June 15th through June 21st. Other parts of our area, particularly south and west of Rockford, picked up as much as 8 to 10 inches of rain that week!

FutureTrack Rainfall Potential

FutureTrack Rainfall Potential

Rainfall is now at a surplus for the month of June. For the year, however, we are below average…..but not by much. Even though we’ll hang onto the chance for rain through the end of June, the heaviest rain looks to stay out of northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. Long range models are giving us between a quarter and one inch through next Monday.

-Joe

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Posted under FutureTrack, rain, statistics, weather

This post was written by qni_it on June 24, 2014

Heavy Rainfall

A nearly stationary frontal boundary is to blame for the heavy rain and flash flooding that affected a large swath of real estate in northern Illinois. Showers and thunderstorms developed along the front Wednesday evening through Thursday morning. Thunderstorm activity sustained itself over the same area for almost 12 hours!

The result was extremely heavy rain, some hail, and plenty of flooding. The hardest hit areas included much of western and southern Lee County, northern Ogle County, far eastern Whiteside County, Carroll County, and western Jo Daviess County. Creeks and streams have filled up and there is a lot of standing water in area farm fields.

Radar-estimated Rainfall

Radar-estimated Rainfall

Isolated pockets of 4 to 6 inches of rain fell along the Route 72 corridor from near Lanark east to Monroe Center, including Shannon, Forreston, Byron, Stillman Valley and Davis Junction. The Dixon, Sterling and Rock Falls area picked up similar rainfall amounts. Southern Lee County—south of Amboy and Sublette—had radar-estimated rainfall totals greater than 8 inches!

More on the Way?!

More on the Way?!

Looking ahead to Thursday evening and overnight, more heavy rain is an unfortunate possibility across our region. Another couple of inches is not out of the question where heavier thunderstorms persist. -Joe

Similar Set-Up for Tonight

Similar Set-Up for Tonight

Local Rainfall Reports over 2 Inches

(observations are recorded by volunteers and submitted to the National Weather Service)

  • Lanark 5.79″
  • Dixon – 5.14″
  • Rock Falls – 5.01″
  • Dixon – 4.97″
  • Mount Carroll – 4.63″
  • Amboy – 3.72″
  • Mount Carroll – 3.07″
  • Galena Territory – 3.04″
  • Sterling – 3.02″
  • DeKalb – 2.70″
  • Amboy – 2.58″
  • Elburn – 2.55″
  • Galena – 2.48″
  • Byron – 2.46″
  • Davis Junction 2.23″
  • Ashton – 2.18″
  • DeKalb – 2.10″
  • Malta – 2.08″
  • Sugar Grove – 2.06″
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Posted under Exactrack|HD, flooding, FutureTrack, rain, weather

This post was written by qni_it on June 19, 2014

Healthy Dose of Rain

Thanks to some shower activity Tuesday night and a steady rain that fell between 1am and 10am Wednesday morning, our rain gauges have filled up nicely. Areas along and east of the Rock River picked up over an inch of rain. A few spots in DeKalb and McHenry County soaked up almost two inches! Parts of Carroll, Green, and Jo Daviess County hardly picked up anything.

24-Hour Rainfall Totals (10am Tuesday - 10am Wednesday)

24-Hour Rainfall Totals (10am Tuesday – 10am Wednesday)

At Chicago Rockford International Airport (RFD), rainfall added up to nearly two-tenths of an inch (0.19″) fell Tuesday night. Just over eight-tenths of an inch (0.82″ as of this blog post) fell Wednesday morning.

Rainfall by Hour

Rainfall by Hour at RFD

A few spotty showers are possible early this afternoon, but any additional rainfall will be light and less than one-tenth of an inch (0.1″).

-Joe

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Posted under 13 Climate Authority, rain, statistics, weather

This post was written by qni_it on June 11, 2014

Off-and-On Rain Chances

Don’t let the 7-Day forecast discourage you! Sure, we have a chance of rain on five of the next seven days. However, we are not expecting all-day rains or a deluge of water. Although our gardens, fields, and yards could probably use a little more water! The soaking rains will stay across parts of the mid-South and southern Mississippi River valley.

FutureTrack Rain: Regional View

FutureTrack Rain: Regional View

A system currently in the southern Plains will lift north into Michigan by midweek. This means we have a chance for rain from now through Thursday. A majority of the daylight hours will be dry today and Tuesday. A very slight chance for a quick shower or two is possible this afternoon.

This Week: Small Rain Chances, Spotty Coverage

This Week: Small Rain Chances, Spotty Coverage

Clouds will be on the increase Tuesday, but our rain chances should hold off until late morning. Scattered showers will stay in our forecast Tuesday night through Wednesday. Temperatures will be held below normal during this period.

Most Rain Tuesday Night through Wednesday

Most Rain Tuesday Night through Wednesday

By Thursday, an approaching cold front will bring the chance for a few afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Much like late Tuesday and Wednesday’s shower activity, coverage will be spotty.

-Joe

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Posted under rain, weather

This post was written by qni_it on June 9, 2014