Flag Day is observed annually on June 14th.  This date is often associated with pleasant temperatures; after all, we are in meteorological summer.  The average high temperature for Flag Day in Rockford is 81 degrees; the average low is 58 degrees. 

While 2013 will be close to average, Flag Day has had its extremes in years past.  In fact, Flag Day 2012 was hot and humid with a high of 88 in the Forest City.  The all-time record high is 98 degrees, which occurred in 1987.  The coldest temperature was 40 degrees in 1933.  The rainiest was in 1926, with nearly 5 inches of rain drenching the area.  The latter two records, in case you’re a history buff, were technically set before Congress established Flag Day (which happened in 1949).

-Joe

Posted under 13 Climate Authority, record weather, statistics, weather

April 2013 has been consistently cool.  As of this blog post, 17 days have had high temperatures below normal.  When factoring in high and low temperatures, 19 days have been below normal in Rockford.  The last three days of the month, however, will buck the trend.

Sunday’s high temperature is expected to reach 70 degrees in Rockford.  This is significant in many ways.  It will be the first 70 degree day of the year in the Forest City and the first since October 25, 2012!  On average, Rockford usually sees its first 70 degree day around April 2nd.  Sunday April 28th would be the second latest first 70 degree day in Rockford’s climatological history.  The latest first 70 degree day ever observed was May 6, 1971.

-Joe

Posted under 13 Climate Authority, record weather, statistics, weather

2-Day Rainfall Totals

Thankfully, the heaviest rain is behind us.  Now our attention must focus on the aftermath.  Over the last 36 to 48 hours, rainfall totals throughout northern Illinois added up to 3 or 4 inches with isolated locations picking up close to 5 inches! To put that into perspective, Rockford’s normal rainfall for the entire month of April is 3.35 inches.

Creeks and rivers continue to rise as the runoff from the saturated earth makes its way to the low lying fields and valleys.  Locations along the Rock River, including near Machesney Park , Roscoe, Oregon & Byron are expecting major and even record flood levels into this weekend. Other areas that have been reportedly affected include locations along the Pecatonica, Kishwaukee & Green Rivers, Keith Creek & Willow Creek in Winnebago County, Stillman Creek & Kilbuck Creek in Ogle County, and Yellow Creek in Stephenson County.

Many other creeks & minor streams have reached bankfull and flood stage, causing problems all throughout the Stateline.  While a few showers are possible Thursday afternoon and into Friday, minor additional rainfall totals are expected.

-Joe

Posted under flooding, rain, record weather, safety, weather

April has been quite a rainy month so far with 1.75 inches falling at the Chicago/Rockford Int’l Airport through 3pm Wednesday. That amount is 160% of normal! While 2/3 of an inch of rain falling as a surplus is a good thing to bring our drought to an end, the forecast is not.

The forecast from the National Weather Service’s GFS model shows 2.41″ of rainfall coming in the next 16 days. That amount is more than we should receive in a typical April, 135% of normal.

Of concern is this pattern of repeated rainfall. With our rivers now flooding in Northern Illinois and Southern Wisconsin, we need this pattern to change in order to get the river levels to level off.

Meteorologists refer to this type of situation as ”high evaporative feedback.” Because our ground is saturated, it will lead to increased evaporation in the days and weeks to come. This will cause storm systems to be wetter than normal, with our models possibly underdoing the rain forecast for the next few weeks. Signals show this pattern will persist for a few weeks, possibly well into May.

With a barrage of storm systems coming through the center part of the United States over the next 1-2 weeks, prepare for rising river levels and increased flooding. Below are a few of the river gauges from this afternoon. You can see all of the levels on the National Weather Service’s Rivers and Lakes Page here.  

Posted under climate/climate change, flooding, rain, record weather, safety, science, weather geek

We have concluded March 2013, and crunched a few numbers. Anyone that remembers the March of 2012 will not be surprised about the results when the two are compared. Last year was our warmest March on record with an average temperature (low and high temps combined) of 52.4° compared to this March that was the 11th coldest with an average temperature of 29.5°. Last year we had 23 days at or above 50 degrees, this year we squeezed out a whole 3.  Alas, a new month has just started and it looks like by the weekend our highs should finally be back up near normal. -Greg

Posted under record weather, statistics

Now that March is finally behind us, let’s take a peek at a few April statistics.

The average high temperature for April 1st is 55 degrees with a low of 33 degrees. It sure feels like April was playing a nasty joke on us for April Fools Day today, we were a little over 15 degrees cooler than normal today. Good news is temperatures are trending upward for the rest of the work week and into the weekend. The average high for the last day of the month is 67 degrees with a low of 43 degrees, so there is something to look forward to!

The GFS model forecasts out 16 days and is currently showing the middle of April to have near normal temperatures. Average mid-April temperatures are right around 60 degrees. Now, this forecast is still quite a ways out BUT there is a light at the end of the tunnel! A record high temperature of 93 degrees was set back in 1930 and a record low of 5 degrees set in 1982, however the climate outlook isn’t putting any extremes in our forecast this month. The Climate Prediction Center is showing an average temperature and precipitation trend for the month of April. The GFS 16 day outlook is giving Rockford a potentially wetter than average first half of the month. On the bright side, more April showers brings more May flowers, right? The average precipitation for April is 3.35 inches of rain and 0.9 inches of snow.

A few facts and a small glance at the GFS long range forecast for April. Let’s hope this month is closer to average than the last!

Posted under 13 Climate Authority, climate/climate change, rain, record weather, snow, statistics, weather

Here’s a glance at Rockford’s March 2013 one last time.

If you can believe it, the normal high temperature for Rockford in March is 46.9 degrees. Sadly, March of 2013 brought us an average high almost 10 degrees cooler at 37 degrees. Our average low temperature followed the same trend, being 5.4 degrees cooler than normal. We actually only had 4 days with average temperatures above 40 degrees! What’s even more interesting is that Rockford averages 4 or 5 days of 60+ degrees in March, but this year we had ZERO! As a matter of fact, almost one third of our high temperatures and 94% of our low temperatures were below freezing! Here are two facts we can put some blame on for those cool temperatures: 1) 15 out of 31 days had an average wind flow out of the northwest. 2) 16 out of 31 days averaged cloudy skies.

Now, let’s talk about snow. Finally, a category we were above average in! On March 5th, 2013, Rockford received 9.6 inches of snowfall, crushing the previous record of 5.4 inches back in 1959. Actually, the average snowfall for March in Rockford is 4.8 inches- we almost tripled that! This March, we received 13.9 inches of snowfall. Not to mention, Rockford recorded precipitation for 21 out of 31 days!

Now we can finally say goodbye to cold, snowy March as we spring into April.

Posted under 13 Climate Authority, climate/climate change, record weather, snow, statistics, weather, winter weather

A strong, late-Winter cold front passed through northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin on Monday. The result was minor snow accumulations followed by plummeting temperatures and a gusty wind.  Sustained wind speeds will range from 20 to 30mph out of the west-northwest Monday night.  Wind gusts may top 40mph!  Wind chills will slide toward zero and may dip below zero early Tuesday morning. The brisk wind will continue through the day Tuesday, with gusts around 30mph at times. A stray flurry or two is possible, but no accumulation is expected. Otherwise, it will be partly cloudy. Temperatures will only rebound into the upper 20s to near 30.  With temperatures likely falling in the single digits Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, wind chills will once again fall below zero.

Interesting of note, Wednesday March 20 is the Spring Equinox.  Wednesday’s record cold high temperature in Rockford is 22 degrees, which occurred in 1965. Our forecast high is currently 24 degrees!  Not the greatest way to usher in Spring!  To add insult to injury, March 20th’s normal high temperature is 49 degrees.  Just last year in 2012, we hit a record 83 degrees on that date!  I don’t know about you, but I’m definitely ready for things to warm up!

-Joe

Posted under 13 Climate Authority, cold blast, FutureTrack, record weather, statistics, weather, Wind

Here’s a quick look at some snow total climatology. We’re about halfway through the month of March and we’ve already exceeded the normal snow total by over 6 inches! I’m sure you can believe that this month has been the snowiest March of the millennium, with still more to come!

Based on climatology, Rockford’s average snow total for the entire month of March is 4.8 inches. We’ve actually only hit that value three times in the last 13 years! March of 2006, 2008, and 2013 have been above normal, while the rest have fallen short.

When we average each March since 2000, our total snowfall is only 3.2 inches. Although many of us are sick of the snow, we are still summing up to be under average this millennium by about 1.6 inches.

We’re all missing those 80 degree temperatures from last year’s March, right? March 2012 was the warmest on record, yet its snow total came very close to normal. Rockford saw 3.0 inches of snowfall that month, only 0.2 inches short of our millennial average. So, even though it was the warmest March on record, it was the 6th snowiest since 2000!

Posted under 13 Climate Authority, record weather, snow, statistics, weather, winter weather

St. Patrick’s Day 2013: Chilly by Comparison

A normal St. Patrick’s Day across the Stateline would bring high temperatures in the upper 40s.  In fact, this is the time of year where even 50 degree temperatures and light jackets are expected.  That will not be the case this year as our highs will struggle to climb to 35 degrees!  Last year was not normal either.  Many of us, myself included, felt like we found the pot of gold!  On March 17, 2012 Rockford recorded the warmest temperature ever for the Irish holiday at 82 degrees!  Many were enjoying the sun and warmth in summer attire!

Will our March 2013 cool spell come to an end? Signs point to 40 degrees by next weekend, which is still about 10 degrees cooler than where we should be.  The longer-range forecast models keep us below average for most of the rest of the month.  No Irish luck this year, unfortunately.

-Joe

Posted under 13 Climate Authority, cold blast, record weather, statistics, weather