If you haven’t read through Chief Meteorologist Eric Sorensen’s Tuesday blog post regarding our severe weather threat for Wednesday afternoon, I’d recommend it. You can find his blog post HERE. 

A somewhat stable airmass is in place across the Stateline for Wednesday morning.  Overnight showers and thunderstorms in western Iowa fizzled out before they crossed the Mississippi River into Illinois.  The result is a mostly cloudy morning with a few breaks of sunshine.  Humidity and temperatures will be on the rise throughout the day, with highs expected to reach the middle 80s.

The meteorological ‘ingredients,’ so to speak, are coming together for severe weather later today.  With a surface wind still expected out of the southeast and an upper-atmospheric wind out of the south-southwest, directional wind shear and storm rotation will be a concern this afternoon and evening.  A warm front is still expected to lift into northern Illinois this afternoon, at least as far north as the Interstate 88 corridor.  It is along this front that supercell thunderstorms may develop.  Supercell thunderstorms have the potential to produce strong wind gusts, large damaging hail, and possibly a tornado.  These threats will all be of local concern this afternoon, including torrential rain.

Don’t panic.  However, today is a good day to be ‘weather aware’ and keep an ‘eye on the sky.’  Make sure you have a severe weather safety plan in place.  We haven’t seen a threat like this across the Stateline for a few years.  Let’s plan for the worst and hope for the best.

As far as timing goes, our array of forecasting products are not on the exact same page. However, the best timeframe for severe thunderstorms to develop is this afternoon and evening.  Storms may begin to form in eastern Iowa around 2pm through 4pm and move east-southeast into our area after that.  Some model solutions begin a bit earlier, some begin later around dinner time.  We do know that this afternoon and evening will be active. 

Don’t forget, you can track the storms on your smart phone with our 13 Weather Authority App or sign up for severe weather text alerts.

-Joe

Posted under rain, safety, severe weather, Threatrack, tornado, weather, Wind

Severe thunderstorms are a good bet across parts of South Dakota, southern Minnesota and northwestern Iowa late Tuesday. In fact, the Storm Prediction Center has placed that region in a Moderate Risk (a category that is not issued very often).  Should these storms hold together, there is the potential for a derecho to develop. “Derecho” is a meteorological term derived from the Spanish language word for “straight.”  It refers to a widespread and rapidly-moving wind-storm associated with a bow-echo line of thunderstorms that can last hours and overnight. Straight line winds over 80mph can produce damage across areas hundreds of miles long and more than 100 miles wide.  Typical derecho events see a southeasterly turn in the progression of the line of storms.  However—and I cannot stress this enough—derecho events are extremely difficult to forecast until they have formed.  This will need to be monitored locally as we head into the overnight hours (pre-dawn hours of Wednesday).

Severe thunderstorms are a possibility again on Wednesday. A round of showers and thunderstorms in the early morning may yield a break during the middle part of the day.  By the afternoon and evening a warm front will lift north toward the Stateline. If we get enough daytime heating, our atmosphere will destabilize and showers and thunderstorms will form.  Some of these storms may take on supercell form, which could produce large hail, heavy rain, strong wind gusts, and an isolated tornado.  Perhaps the highest threat will be just southeast of us from Chicago south to Champaign and east through Indiana and western Ohio. 

This blog post is not meant to scare; it’s meant to inform you of the possibility of severe weather.  Not all of us will be affected; however, the threat exists across our entire region.  It’s a great time to be weather aware!  Join 13 Weather Authority Chief Meteorologist Eric Sorensen at 5, 6, and 10pm tonight for further forecast updates and analysis.

-Joe

Posted under safety, severe weather, Threatrack, weather, Wind

We have seen an overwhelming response in our Midland Weather Radio campaign this spring! Tomorrow, our next event hits Cherry Valley where your 13 Weather Authority team will be programming them free from 5pm to 7pm. Bring us an older Midland Radio or buy a new one and we’ll make sure it’s programmed to only go off when you want it to! You can buy a radio at any area Schnuck’s store in Rockford, Loves Park, Roscoe, Janesville, Cherry Valley, and DeKalb.

I’ve had many of you ask how easy it is to program on your own. I made a short three minute tutorial that shows you how easy it is! (Although we’d love to meet you at one of our Friday events). Please think about getting something that will alert you when to take shelter. With strong tornadoes happening this spring, we want to make sure everyone is prepared should it happen here. -Eric

Posted under safety

Today marks the unofficial start of summer and one of the biggest grilling days of the year! We have rain in the forecast, but don’t be discouraged from lighting up the grill and making some flame broiled goodness. Just a few tips though if you do plan on braving the on and off rain. First and foremost, never under any circumstance take a grill indoors. This can lead to house fires as well as the possibility of carbon monoxide poisoning! You’ll want to monitor the temperature inside your grill closely as raindrops will cool the lid. Also, check your food often! The tendency will be to want to spend more time inside and less time watching the food, this could lead to burned BBQ. -Greg

Posted under BBQ Alert, safety, weather

We’ve seen the heartbreaking stories for the past few days of folks in Moore, Oklahoma dealing with the aftermath of a violent, deadly EF-5 tornado. I’ve been asked the question “Can that happen here?” And unfortunately the answer is “Yes.” On August 28, 1990, an F-5 tornado struck the town of Plainfield, Illinois, killing 24 people. That storm first spawned a tornado near Pecatonica that afternoon. We know these tornadoes can happen here. The good news is we’ve been lucky. The bad news is we don’t know when it will happen again.

But you can be ready for it when it does. By coming up with a tornado safety plan and owning a NOAA Weather Radio, you will have the tools in place to stay safe. You can purchase one of these NOAA Weather Radios at any Schnuck’s store in Rockford, Janesville, and DeKalb. Every Friday, the 13 Weather Authority team will spend two hours programming the radio specific for your county (although an easy read of the instruction manual will give you the ability to do it).

This Friday, we’ll be at the Schnuck’s store on Charles Street in Southeast Rockford. We hope to see you there! -Eric

Posted under safety, tornado

Midnight Radar

12:35pm Update: All local Severe Thunderstorm Warnings have ended. A line of showers and weakening thunderstorms will push east across the Stateline for the next hour or two. Although below severe limits, some brief gusty wind and small hail are still a possibility. -Joe

12:00am Update: Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Jo Daviess, extreme northwest Carroll, and extreme northwest Stephenson County until 12:30am. Quarter-size hail and wind gusts up to 60mph can be expected as this storm races north-northeast into Wisconsin. -Joe

10:15:15 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS MKX: 3 NNW Beloit [Rock Co, WI] law enforcement reports TSTM WND DMG at 09:02 PM CDT — tree went through roof of home on afton road between afton and beloit.

(9:40:36 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Rockford [Winnebago Co, IL] trained spotter reports HAIL of half dollar size (E1.25 INCH) at 08:59 PM CDT — quarter to half dollar size hail 2 miles west of downtown. time estimated.

(9:24:31 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: 10 SE Durand [Winnebago Co, IL] amateur radio reports TSTM WND DMG at 09:13 PM CDT — estimated 25 to 30 inch diameter tree down on route 75, approximately 1.5 miles east of merridian road.

(9:22:17 PM) nwsbot: LOT issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning [wind: 60 MPH, hail: 1.00 IN] for Boone, Cook, De Kalb, DuPage, Kane, Kendall, Lake, McHenry, Will [IL] till 10:30 PM CDT

(9:18:39 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Belvidere [Boone Co, IL] emergency mngr reports HAIL of pea size (E0.25 INCH) at 09:13 PM CDT — estimated pea sized hail at beaver road and beaver spring.

(9:05:34 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Rockford [Winnebago Co, IL] broadcast media reports HAIL of penny size (E0.75 INCH) at 08:57 PM CDT — dime size hail in downtown rockford.

(9:01:48 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: 5 NW Polo [Ogle Co, IL] co-op observer reports TSTM WND GST of E50 MPH at 08:05 PM CDT — estimated 40 to 50 mph wind gusts on leading edge of thunderstorms. small tree branches down.

Tornado Watch until 3am

(9:00:03 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Rockford [Winnebago Co, IL] amateur radio reports HAIL of penny size (E0.75 INCH) at 08:56 PM CDT — dime size hail on charles street.

(8:55:01 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Pecatonica [Winnebago Co, IL] trained spotter reports HAIL of golf ball size (E1.75 INCH) at 08:47 PM CDT — golfball size hail near trask bridge and eddy roads.

(8:56:50 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: N Rockford [Winnebago Co, IL] emergency mngr reports HAIL of pea size (E0.25 INCH) at 08:52 PM CDT — pea size hail near latham and rockton ave on the north side of rockford.

(8:49:10 PM) nwsbot: MKX issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning [wind: 70 MPH, hail: 1.75 IN] for Green, Rock [WI] till 9:45 PM CDT

(8:32:09 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Franklin Grove [Lee Co, IL] broadcast media reports TSTM WND GST of E60.00 MPH at 08:20 PM CDT — estimated gust to 60 mph. severe dust storm reported with near zero visibility.

(8:25:55 PM) nwsbot: LOT issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning [wind: 60 MPH, hail: <.75 IN] for Boone, De Kalb, Lee, McHenry, Ogle, Winnebago [IL] till 9:30 PM CDT

(8:20:39 PM) nwsbot: DVN cancels Tornado Warning for Carroll [IL]

(8:07:46 PM) nwsbot: DVN issues Tornado Warning [tornado: OBSERVED, hail: 1.25 IN] for Carroll [IL] till 8:30 PM CDT …AT 802 PM CDT…A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ARGO FAY…AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

7:45pm Update: The Severe Thunderstorm Warning was extended until 8:30pm for Whiteside and Carroll County. Lee and Ogle County are now included as well. Line of storms is racing northeast at 45mph with strong gusty wind and sizeable hail. Frequent lightning and heavy rain are also likely. -Joe

7:30pm Update:  A Severe Thunderstorm Warning is in effect for Whiteside County until 8:15pm. A strong storm was moving northeast at 45mph with 60mph wind gusts and nickel size hail. Erie, Prophetstown, Tampico, Lyndon, Walnut, Deer Grove, Sterling, Rock Falls and other nearby communities are in the path. This storm will likely move northeast into Lee and Ogle County after dark. -Joe

5:30pm Update: A Tornado Watch is in effect until 10pm for the local counties of Carroll, Jo Daviess, Stephenson & Whiteside. Severe thunderstorms have fired up south of the Quad Cities and are trackin north.

3:30pm Update: A Tornado Watch is in effect for a land area stretching nearly 1,000 miles from southern Oklahoma into southern Minnesota. The Tornado Watch includes most of Iowa and four counties in extreme western Illinois, not too far away from the Stateline. As of this update, only one warned storm was present in northern Iowa. More development is expected there throughout the rest of the day. We will have the threat for severe thunderstorms area-wide later this evening and tonight. This blog post will be updated periodically as things change or develop. -Joe

7:40pm Radar

3:00pm Update: The Severe Thunderstorm Warning has been cancelled for Stephenson County. A new warning is in effect for Green and northwest Rock County in Wisconsin until 3:45pm. There have been numerous reports of downed limbs and trees with wind gusts up to 70mph. Hail and heavy rain is likely with this small line of storms as well.

2:30pm Update: A Severe Thunderstorm Warning is in effect for Stephenson County until 3pm.  A Severe Thunderstorm Warning is also in effect for Green County and northwest Rock County in Wisconsin until 3pm.

A small line of storms is moving northeast around 45mph and will affect areas along and north of US Highway 20 and Illinois Route 75.  Wind gusts up to 70mph have been observed as well as pea to penny size hail, frequent lightning, and torrential rain.

Seek shelter if you are in Lena, Winslow, Orangeville, Cedarville, Freeport, Davis, Dakota, Rock City, Lake Summerset, Monroe, Clarno, Brodhead and Albany.

(2:45 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS MKX: Monroe Airport [Green Co, WI] awos reports TSTM WND GST of M59 MPH at 02:38 PM CDT — airport awos…sustained 30 mph with gusts to 59 mph.

(2:33 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: Winslow [Stephenson Co, IL] public reports HAIL of half inch size (M0.50 INCH) at 02:28 PM CDT — relayed from media.

(2:13 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: 3 NNE Stockton [Jo Daviess Co, IL] co-op observer reports TSTM WND GST of M64 MPH at 02:07 PM CDT –

(2:03 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: 3 NE Woodbine [Jo Daviess Co, IL] trained spotter reports TSTM WND DMG at 01:59 PM CDT — 2 inch diameter tree limbs down.

(1:50 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: NW Hanover [Jo Daviess Co, IL] trained spotter reports HAIL of penny size (M0.75 INCH) at 01:45 PM CDT — pea to penny size.

-Joe

Posted under Exactrack|HD, safety, severe weather

Severe thunderstorms and even a few tornadoes were observed across the Great Plains States on Saturday afternoon and evening.  That threat will shift a little further east on Sunday.  The National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center  has issued a moderate risk for severe storms in places such as Kansas City and Joplin in Missouri as well as Oklahoma City and Tulsa in Oklahoma.  These areas will deal with the threat for damaging wind, large hail, frequent lightning, torrential downpours, and possibly a tornado.

There is also a risk for severe weather further north into Minnesota and Iowa for the day Sunday.  By Sunday evening, that threat for a few stronger storms will exist here in northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin.  Hot and humid conditions are expected across the Stateline during the day with temperatures warming into the upper 80s.  Much of the first half of the day will be dry, with just a slight chance for a shower or two.  By late afternoon and early evening, a few thunderstorms will push into the area from the west.  Thunderstorms are not expected to develop in an organized pattern locally, so not all backyards will see the rain.  However, any strong storm we may see late Sunday will carry the primary threats of strong wind and large hail.  Thanks to the setting sun, solar heating (which helps to destabilize the atmosphere and ‘fuel’ thunderstorm development) will come to an end and the threat for stronger storms will decrease quickly after dark.  General showers and weakening thunderstorms will be scattered about the area overnight Sunday and fizzle out by dawn Monday.

Monday continues to have the best chance for severe thunderstorms.  Should we see enough breaks in the cloudcover leftover from Sunday night’s storms, our high temperatures may be similar to Sunday’s.  Otherwise, humid conditions and low 80s are in the forecast.  A vigorous center of low pressure will continue to slide east and shower and thunderstorm development is likely out ahead of it in our area Monday afternoon.  Some thunderstorms have the potential to take on supercell form, which includes the very slight chance for an isolated tornado.  The main concerns for Monday will be damaging straight line wind, large hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall.

Stay tuned to the Weather Blog and WREX.com, or you can follow the 13 Weather Authority on Facebook and Twitter for all of the latest updates regarding the chance for severe weather in northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin.  -Joe

Posted under FutureTrack, rain, safety, severe weather, Threatrack, weather, Wind

I had the opportunity to visit two schools on Friday for Project: Tornado 2013.  My first stop in the morning was near Poplar Grove at North Boone Upper Elementary School, where I spoke with 5th and 6th graders.  My second stop of the day brought me to Franklin Grove, where I spoke with 3rd and 4th graders at Ashton Franklin Center Elementary School.

A great question was brought up at AFC and it stumped me!  The question was: ‘How many tornadoes touch down each year in Illinois?’

After digging around for the answer, I found that 54 tornadoes occur in the Prairie State during an average year.  This climatological average was derived from all tornadoes that touched down between 1991 and 2010.  This ranks Illinois as 6 out of all 50 states for the most tornadoes per year!  Of course, this is a climatological average, so some years will see more and some years will see far less.  In 2006, 124 tornadoes were observed in Illinois.  In 2012, however, only 39 tornadoes touched down in Illinois.  Wisconsin averages 24 tornadoes per year, ranking it at 20 out of all 50 states.

Another statistic that better portrays the yearly tornado threat in Illinois is the average number of tornadoes per 10,000 square miles.  Illinois’ average is 9.7 tornadoes per 10,000 square miles and Wisconsin’s is 4.5 tornadoes per 10,000 square miles.  How big is 10,000 square miles? To give you an idea, the size of all 13 counties in the 13 WREX viewing area put together is just 7,695 square miles.

-Joe

Posted under Project: Tornado, safety, severe weather, statistics, tornado, weather

It’s a no-brainer that everyone needs a smoke-detector and even a carbon-monoxide detector. In most homes, we have several of them placed in different spots. But what would wake you if a tornado was bearing down on your house in the middle of the night? Sure, we’ll be tracking storms on 13WREX in the middle of the night. We just want to make sure you have a way to know in advance.

We have teamed up with Schnucks and Midland Radio to offer programmable weather radios at a discounted cost. You can pick one up at any Logli, Hilander, or Schnucks store in Northern Illinois and Southern Wisconsin now. However, every Friday we will be out for two hours to program them for you! So if you just want your county programmed to sound for a Tornado Warning, we can do it for you. Last Friday, I had a couple buy a radio and I programmed it for their parent who lives in Waushara Co., Wisconsin.

We don’t know when the next tornado will touch down. It’s our goal to have as many people in the storm’s path be ready with a plan in place. It’s worth thirty bucks, don’t you think? -Eric

Posted under Project: Tornado, safety

2-Day Rainfall Totals

Thankfully, the heaviest rain is behind us.  Now our attention must focus on the aftermath.  Over the last 36 to 48 hours, rainfall totals throughout northern Illinois added up to 3 or 4 inches with isolated locations picking up close to 5 inches! To put that into perspective, Rockford’s normal rainfall for the entire month of April is 3.35 inches.

Creeks and rivers continue to rise as the runoff from the saturated earth makes its way to the low lying fields and valleys.  Locations along the Rock River, including near Machesney Park , Roscoe, Oregon & Byron are expecting major and even record flood levels into this weekend. Other areas that have been reportedly affected include locations along the Pecatonica, Kishwaukee & Green Rivers, Keith Creek & Willow Creek in Winnebago County, Stillman Creek & Kilbuck Creek in Ogle County, and Yellow Creek in Stephenson County.

Many other creeks & minor streams have reached bankfull and flood stage, causing problems all throughout the Stateline.  While a few showers are possible Thursday afternoon and into Friday, minor additional rainfall totals are expected.

-Joe

Posted under flooding, rain, record weather, safety, weather