We’ve seen the heartbreaking stories for the past few days of folks in Moore, Oklahoma dealing with the aftermath of a violent, deadly EF-5 tornado. I’ve been asked the question “Can that happen here?” And unfortunately the answer is “Yes.” On August 28, 1990, an F-5 tornado struck the town of Plainfield, Illinois, killing 24 people. That storm first spawned a tornado near Pecatonica that afternoon. We know these tornadoes can happen here. The good news is we’ve been lucky. The bad news is we don’t know when it will happen again.

But you can be ready for it when it does. By coming up with a tornado safety plan and owning a NOAA Weather Radio, you will have the tools in place to stay safe. You can purchase one of these NOAA Weather Radios at any Schnuck’s store in Rockford, Janesville, and DeKalb. Every Friday, the 13 Weather Authority team will spend two hours programming the radio specific for your county (although an easy read of the instruction manual will give you the ability to do it).

This Friday, we’ll be at the Schnuck’s store on Charles Street in Southeast Rockford. We hope to see you there! -Eric

Posted under safety, tornado

Midnight Radar

12:35pm Update: All local Severe Thunderstorm Warnings have ended. A line of showers and weakening thunderstorms will push east across the Stateline for the next hour or two. Although below severe limits, some brief gusty wind and small hail are still a possibility. -Joe

12:00am Update: Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Jo Daviess, extreme northwest Carroll, and extreme northwest Stephenson County until 12:30am. Quarter-size hail and wind gusts up to 60mph can be expected as this storm races north-northeast into Wisconsin. -Joe

10:15:15 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS MKX: 3 NNW Beloit [Rock Co, WI] law enforcement reports TSTM WND DMG at 09:02 PM CDT — tree went through roof of home on afton road between afton and beloit.

(9:40:36 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Rockford [Winnebago Co, IL] trained spotter reports HAIL of half dollar size (E1.25 INCH) at 08:59 PM CDT — quarter to half dollar size hail 2 miles west of downtown. time estimated.

(9:24:31 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: 10 SE Durand [Winnebago Co, IL] amateur radio reports TSTM WND DMG at 09:13 PM CDT — estimated 25 to 30 inch diameter tree down on route 75, approximately 1.5 miles east of merridian road.

(9:22:17 PM) nwsbot: LOT issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning [wind: 60 MPH, hail: 1.00 IN] for Boone, Cook, De Kalb, DuPage, Kane, Kendall, Lake, McHenry, Will [IL] till 10:30 PM CDT

(9:18:39 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Belvidere [Boone Co, IL] emergency mngr reports HAIL of pea size (E0.25 INCH) at 09:13 PM CDT — estimated pea sized hail at beaver road and beaver spring.

(9:05:34 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Rockford [Winnebago Co, IL] broadcast media reports HAIL of penny size (E0.75 INCH) at 08:57 PM CDT — dime size hail in downtown rockford.

(9:01:48 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: 5 NW Polo [Ogle Co, IL] co-op observer reports TSTM WND GST of E50 MPH at 08:05 PM CDT — estimated 40 to 50 mph wind gusts on leading edge of thunderstorms. small tree branches down.

Tornado Watch until 3am

(9:00:03 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Rockford [Winnebago Co, IL] amateur radio reports HAIL of penny size (E0.75 INCH) at 08:56 PM CDT — dime size hail on charles street.

(8:55:01 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Pecatonica [Winnebago Co, IL] trained spotter reports HAIL of golf ball size (E1.75 INCH) at 08:47 PM CDT — golfball size hail near trask bridge and eddy roads.

(8:56:50 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: N Rockford [Winnebago Co, IL] emergency mngr reports HAIL of pea size (E0.25 INCH) at 08:52 PM CDT — pea size hail near latham and rockton ave on the north side of rockford.

(8:49:10 PM) nwsbot: MKX issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning [wind: 70 MPH, hail: 1.75 IN] for Green, Rock [WI] till 9:45 PM CDT

(8:32:09 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Franklin Grove [Lee Co, IL] broadcast media reports TSTM WND GST of E60.00 MPH at 08:20 PM CDT — estimated gust to 60 mph. severe dust storm reported with near zero visibility.

(8:25:55 PM) nwsbot: LOT issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning [wind: 60 MPH, hail: <.75 IN] for Boone, De Kalb, Lee, McHenry, Ogle, Winnebago [IL] till 9:30 PM CDT

(8:20:39 PM) nwsbot: DVN cancels Tornado Warning for Carroll [IL]

(8:07:46 PM) nwsbot: DVN issues Tornado Warning [tornado: OBSERVED, hail: 1.25 IN] for Carroll [IL] till 8:30 PM CDT …AT 802 PM CDT…A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ARGO FAY…AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

7:45pm Update: The Severe Thunderstorm Warning was extended until 8:30pm for Whiteside and Carroll County. Lee and Ogle County are now included as well. Line of storms is racing northeast at 45mph with strong gusty wind and sizeable hail. Frequent lightning and heavy rain are also likely. -Joe

7:30pm Update:  A Severe Thunderstorm Warning is in effect for Whiteside County until 8:15pm. A strong storm was moving northeast at 45mph with 60mph wind gusts and nickel size hail. Erie, Prophetstown, Tampico, Lyndon, Walnut, Deer Grove, Sterling, Rock Falls and other nearby communities are in the path. This storm will likely move northeast into Lee and Ogle County after dark. -Joe

5:30pm Update: A Tornado Watch is in effect until 10pm for the local counties of Carroll, Jo Daviess, Stephenson & Whiteside. Severe thunderstorms have fired up south of the Quad Cities and are trackin north.

3:30pm Update: A Tornado Watch is in effect for a land area stretching nearly 1,000 miles from southern Oklahoma into southern Minnesota. The Tornado Watch includes most of Iowa and four counties in extreme western Illinois, not too far away from the Stateline. As of this update, only one warned storm was present in northern Iowa. More development is expected there throughout the rest of the day. We will have the threat for severe thunderstorms area-wide later this evening and tonight. This blog post will be updated periodically as things change or develop. -Joe

7:40pm Radar

3:00pm Update: The Severe Thunderstorm Warning has been cancelled for Stephenson County. A new warning is in effect for Green and northwest Rock County in Wisconsin until 3:45pm. There have been numerous reports of downed limbs and trees with wind gusts up to 70mph. Hail and heavy rain is likely with this small line of storms as well.

2:30pm Update: A Severe Thunderstorm Warning is in effect for Stephenson County until 3pm.  A Severe Thunderstorm Warning is also in effect for Green County and northwest Rock County in Wisconsin until 3pm.

A small line of storms is moving northeast around 45mph and will affect areas along and north of US Highway 20 and Illinois Route 75.  Wind gusts up to 70mph have been observed as well as pea to penny size hail, frequent lightning, and torrential rain.

Seek shelter if you are in Lena, Winslow, Orangeville, Cedarville, Freeport, Davis, Dakota, Rock City, Lake Summerset, Monroe, Clarno, Brodhead and Albany.

(2:45 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS MKX: Monroe Airport [Green Co, WI] awos reports TSTM WND GST of M59 MPH at 02:38 PM CDT — airport awos…sustained 30 mph with gusts to 59 mph.

(2:33 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: Winslow [Stephenson Co, IL] public reports HAIL of half inch size (M0.50 INCH) at 02:28 PM CDT — relayed from media.

(2:13 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: 3 NNE Stockton [Jo Daviess Co, IL] co-op observer reports TSTM WND GST of M64 MPH at 02:07 PM CDT –

(2:03 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: 3 NE Woodbine [Jo Daviess Co, IL] trained spotter reports TSTM WND DMG at 01:59 PM CDT — 2 inch diameter tree limbs down.

(1:50 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: NW Hanover [Jo Daviess Co, IL] trained spotter reports HAIL of penny size (M0.75 INCH) at 01:45 PM CDT — pea to penny size.

-Joe

Posted under Exactrack|HD, safety, severe weather

Severe thunderstorms and even a few tornadoes were observed across the Great Plains States on Saturday afternoon and evening.  That threat will shift a little further east on Sunday.  The National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center  has issued a moderate risk for severe storms in places such as Kansas City and Joplin in Missouri as well as Oklahoma City and Tulsa in Oklahoma.  These areas will deal with the threat for damaging wind, large hail, frequent lightning, torrential downpours, and possibly a tornado.

There is also a risk for severe weather further north into Minnesota and Iowa for the day Sunday.  By Sunday evening, that threat for a few stronger storms will exist here in northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin.  Hot and humid conditions are expected across the Stateline during the day with temperatures warming into the upper 80s.  Much of the first half of the day will be dry, with just a slight chance for a shower or two.  By late afternoon and early evening, a few thunderstorms will push into the area from the west.  Thunderstorms are not expected to develop in an organized pattern locally, so not all backyards will see the rain.  However, any strong storm we may see late Sunday will carry the primary threats of strong wind and large hail.  Thanks to the setting sun, solar heating (which helps to destabilize the atmosphere and ‘fuel’ thunderstorm development) will come to an end and the threat for stronger storms will decrease quickly after dark.  General showers and weakening thunderstorms will be scattered about the area overnight Sunday and fizzle out by dawn Monday.

Monday continues to have the best chance for severe thunderstorms.  Should we see enough breaks in the cloudcover leftover from Sunday night’s storms, our high temperatures may be similar to Sunday’s.  Otherwise, humid conditions and low 80s are in the forecast.  A vigorous center of low pressure will continue to slide east and shower and thunderstorm development is likely out ahead of it in our area Monday afternoon.  Some thunderstorms have the potential to take on supercell form, which includes the very slight chance for an isolated tornado.  The main concerns for Monday will be damaging straight line wind, large hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall.

Stay tuned to the Weather Blog and WREX.com, or you can follow the 13 Weather Authority on Facebook and Twitter for all of the latest updates regarding the chance for severe weather in northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin.  -Joe

Posted under FutureTrack, rain, safety, severe weather, Threatrack, weather, Wind

I had the opportunity to visit two schools on Friday for Project: Tornado 2013.  My first stop in the morning was near Poplar Grove at North Boone Upper Elementary School, where I spoke with 5th and 6th graders.  My second stop of the day brought me to Franklin Grove, where I spoke with 3rd and 4th graders at Ashton Franklin Center Elementary School.

A great question was brought up at AFC and it stumped me!  The question was: ‘How many tornadoes touch down each year in Illinois?’

After digging around for the answer, I found that 54 tornadoes occur in the Prairie State during an average year.  This climatological average was derived from all tornadoes that touched down between 1991 and 2010.  This ranks Illinois as 6 out of all 50 states for the most tornadoes per year!  Of course, this is a climatological average, so some years will see more and some years will see far less.  In 2006, 124 tornadoes were observed in Illinois.  In 2012, however, only 39 tornadoes touched down in Illinois.  Wisconsin averages 24 tornadoes per year, ranking it at 20 out of all 50 states.

Another statistic that better portrays the yearly tornado threat in Illinois is the average number of tornadoes per 10,000 square miles.  Illinois’ average is 9.7 tornadoes per 10,000 square miles and Wisconsin’s is 4.5 tornadoes per 10,000 square miles.  How big is 10,000 square miles? To give you an idea, the size of all 13 counties in the 13 WREX viewing area put together is just 7,695 square miles.

-Joe

Posted under Project: Tornado, safety, severe weather, statistics, tornado, weather

It’s a no-brainer that everyone needs a smoke-detector and even a carbon-monoxide detector. In most homes, we have several of them placed in different spots. But what would wake you if a tornado was bearing down on your house in the middle of the night? Sure, we’ll be tracking storms on 13WREX in the middle of the night. We just want to make sure you have a way to know in advance.

We have teamed up with Schnucks and Midland Radio to offer programmable weather radios at a discounted cost. You can pick one up at any Logli, Hilander, or Schnucks store in Northern Illinois and Southern Wisconsin now. However, every Friday we will be out for two hours to program them for you! So if you just want your county programmed to sound for a Tornado Warning, we can do it for you. Last Friday, I had a couple buy a radio and I programmed it for their parent who lives in Waushara Co., Wisconsin.

We don’t know when the next tornado will touch down. It’s our goal to have as many people in the storm’s path be ready with a plan in place. It’s worth thirty bucks, don’t you think? -Eric

Posted under Project: Tornado, safety

2-Day Rainfall Totals

Thankfully, the heaviest rain is behind us.  Now our attention must focus on the aftermath.  Over the last 36 to 48 hours, rainfall totals throughout northern Illinois added up to 3 or 4 inches with isolated locations picking up close to 5 inches! To put that into perspective, Rockford’s normal rainfall for the entire month of April is 3.35 inches.

Creeks and rivers continue to rise as the runoff from the saturated earth makes its way to the low lying fields and valleys.  Locations along the Rock River, including near Machesney Park , Roscoe, Oregon & Byron are expecting major and even record flood levels into this weekend. Other areas that have been reportedly affected include locations along the Pecatonica, Kishwaukee & Green Rivers, Keith Creek & Willow Creek in Winnebago County, Stillman Creek & Kilbuck Creek in Ogle County, and Yellow Creek in Stephenson County.

Many other creeks & minor streams have reached bankfull and flood stage, causing problems all throughout the Stateline.  While a few showers are possible Thursday afternoon and into Friday, minor additional rainfall totals are expected.

-Joe

Posted under flooding, rain, record weather, safety, weather

As we head into the next 48 hours, heavy rainfall will lead way to the possibility of flooding along rivers and in low-lying areas. It is important to be prepared for this type of scenario, especially if you live in an area that has been prone to flooding in the past. Make sure you communicate with all family members or roommates in order to make sure everyone knows what the plan could be if indeed flooding were to occur. Also, moving valuable objects out of basements and areas that might flood could save a major headache in the long run. A small emergency kit is useful in case of a power outage or the necessity to leave your home due to flooding. Under no circumstances should anyone attempt to drive or walk in rising flood water. Just a few feet of water is enough to wash away a car or trap someone in a current. Again many of these are precautions for severe flooding situations, but it is always better to be safe than sorry! Stay safe and stay dry! Keep tuned in on the Facebook page, as well as right here on the blog for more details as they happen in real time. -Greg

Posted under First Look, flooding, rain, safety, severe weather, weather

April has been quite a rainy month so far with 1.75 inches falling at the Chicago/Rockford Int’l Airport through 3pm Wednesday. That amount is 160% of normal! While 2/3 of an inch of rain falling as a surplus is a good thing to bring our drought to an end, the forecast is not.

The forecast from the National Weather Service’s GFS model shows 2.41″ of rainfall coming in the next 16 days. That amount is more than we should receive in a typical April, 135% of normal.

Of concern is this pattern of repeated rainfall. With our rivers now flooding in Northern Illinois and Southern Wisconsin, we need this pattern to change in order to get the river levels to level off.

Meteorologists refer to this type of situation as ”high evaporative feedback.” Because our ground is saturated, it will lead to increased evaporation in the days and weeks to come. This will cause storm systems to be wetter than normal, with our models possibly underdoing the rain forecast for the next few weeks. Signals show this pattern will persist for a few weeks, possibly well into May.

With a barrage of storm systems coming through the center part of the United States over the next 1-2 weeks, prepare for rising river levels and increased flooding. Below are a few of the river gauges from this afternoon. You can see all of the levels on the National Weather Service’s Rivers and Lakes Page here.  

Posted under climate/climate change, flooding, rain, record weather, safety, science, weather geek

Even though a few rain showers are dotting the landscape Saturday afternoon, the atmosphere is still relatively dry.  Humidity values will generally remain below 40% while wind gusts have the potential to approach and even exceed 40mph through the evening. The dry air combined with a consistent wind speed and higher gusts puts us at risk for the spread of wildfire.

There have been been a few reports of grass and brush fires across rural Winnebago & Ogle County.  The best plan of action is to stop any outdoor burning on Saturday.  Wait until Sunday, when our sustained wind speed will be below 10mph. -Joe

Posted under safety, wildfires, wildlife, Wind

Snow will taper to flurries overnight with general accumulations around 1 inch. 2-3 inches are possible south of I-88 with some spots of Central Illinois receiving nearly a foot!

Black ice will be a big problem as we go through the night. Even though the snow will taper off and not be a big deal, accumulation-wise, temperatures will fall into the middle 20s. Because the snow wasn’t enough to cause many of the plows and salt trucks onto the roads, black ice will be a big concern heading into the Monday morning commute. Conditions will improve as temperatures rise above freezing around 9am Monday morning.

Please use caution and remember if the road looks wet tonight, it could very well be ice! -Eric

Posted under safety, snow