Brief Taste of Heat & Humidity

The hottest day of the month—and potentially the hottest day of the summer so far—lies ahead of us on Tuesday. High temperatures will rise into the upper 80s and flirt with 90 degrees by the afternoon. It’s going to be hazy, hot and humid. Dew point values will rise into the 70s giving the air a tropical-feel.

Flirting with 90° Tuesday

Flirting with 90° Tuesday

Combining our air temperature and relative humidity gives us the heat index. The heat index is more or less a “real-feel” index when outside in a hot and humid airmass. The index Tuesday afternoon will reach the middle and upper 90s across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. If you’re going to be outside during the heat of the day, make sure to drink plenty of water and dress appropriately.

Feeling Pretty Hot

Feeling Pretty Hot

By Tuesday evening and night, a cold front will slide through the area. This will bring some scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Threatrack Level 2 - Low Risk

Threatrack Level 2 – Low Risk

There is a chance for an isolated stronger thunderstorm or two. Heavy rain and gusty wind are the main concerns. There is a small window for thunderstorm development before the front passes through and our airmass changes again. Cooler, less humid air is on tap for Wednesday through Friday with highs in the upper 70s.

-Joe

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Posted under severe weather, warm up

This post was written by Joe Astolfi on July 21, 2014

Line of Storms on the Way

A Tornado Watch is in effect for Boone, Carroll, DeKalb, Jo Daviess, Lee, Ogle, Stephenson, Whiteside and Winnebago County in northern Illinois until 7pm Monday. A Tornado Watch is also in effect for Green and Rock County in Wisconsin until 7pm.

Exactrack HD Doppler Radar: 3:30pm

Exactrack HD Doppler Radar: 3:30pm

A fast moving line of thunderstorms will barrel out of eastern Iowa for the late afternoon and in the the evening hours. The main threats with this line are strong, damaging wind gusts over 70mph, some hail, dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning, and very heavy rain. This line of storms is expected to reach the Rockford area just in time for the evening commute. Storms will likely exit the eastern half of our area just before sunset. Please keep an eye to the sky!

Be prepared to seek shelter as these thunderstorms are fast approaching. There is the possibility of some rotation in this line of storms….something that will have to be closely watched.  Flash flooding is also a concern with the potential for a couple of inches of rainfall. Keep it tuned to the 13 Weather Authority for the latest information!

-Joe

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Posted under flooding, safety, severe weather, weather

This post was written by Joe Astolfi on June 30, 2014

Hazy, Hot & Humid

The summer solstice arrives at the end of this week, so it looks like Mother Nature is cranking up the heat and humidity just in time. High temperatures this week will generally reach the mid-to-upper 80s with many of us flirting with that 90-degree mark.

This Week in a Nutshell

This Week in a Nutshell

When we factor in the humidity—which will become much more noticeable tonight through the middle of the week—there will be some discomfort in the air. Heat index values will rise into the 90s for at least Tuesday and Wednesday.

Tuesday Heat Index: 90s

Tuesday Heat Index: 90s

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast every day this week, although much of the time will be dry. Off-and-on rounds of thunderstorms will roll through the region every 18 to 24 hours or so. There is the risk for stronger storms with locally heavy downpours and high wind. We will be monitoring the severe threat through Wednesday.

Threatrack: Overnight through Tuesday Morning

Threatrack: Overnight through Tuesday Morning

The spotty coverage and timing of thunderstorms and left-over thunderstorm clouds to our west will affect what happens here in the Stateline. Keep it tuned to the 13 Weather Authority for the latest information.

-Joe

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Posted under FutureTrack, severe weather, weather

This post was written by Joe Astolfi on June 16, 2014

Severe weather event possible Tuesday night

There are strong signals from our models that a strong complex of thunderstorms will move across Iowa into Illinois. The latest trends put this corridor just south of the Rockford Metro. A surge of moisture-rich air will be inbound from the south which will keep these from moving in a straight west-to-east direction. During the afternoon, storms will form northwest of Omaha. Severe weather is likely across western Iowa and eastern Nebraska early on. As the storms move eastbound into Southern Iowa, they will produce large hail and a few tornadoes. By evening, they should start heading to the southeast targeting the Quincy-Hannibal area. Right now, the area at greatest risk will be from Des Moines into Central Illinois. While we will be on the northern fringes of this, there’s still a threat of very heavy rainfall, along with some large hail. If you have friends or family in the red-shaded areas or if you have travel plans in these areas Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, be mindful of rapidly changing weather! -ERICUntitled

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Posted under severe weather

This post was written by qni_it on June 2, 2014

Storm Chances Dwindle for a Day

After a round of heavy rain with only a few claps of thunder this morning, the rest of the day is looking fairly dry. A stray shower may pop up here or there, but our chance for rain will continue to decrease throughout the rest of the day.

stormchances

Temperatures should still warm into the lower 80s. The humidity and breezy southwest wind will stick around before a cold front moves through, setting the stage for a more comfortable and mostly sunny Tuesday.

More Storms Early Weds.

More Storms Early Weds.

After midnight Tuesday and especially into early Wednesday morning, our chance for rain and thunderstorms with rise. Some of the storms may border on severe limits, with strong wind, hail, and heavy rain.

Threatrack Level 2: Weds AM

Threatrack Level 2: Weds AM

The worst of the weather is expected to stay just to our southwest, but I’d recommend being “weather-aware” before you go to bed Tuesday night!

-Joe

 

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Posted under FutureTrack, severe weather, Threatrack, weather

This post was written by Joe Astolfi on June 2, 2014

Strong Storms Possible

We have spent most of the day with clear skies and warm temperatures! Can you feel the humidity? A very warm and moist atmosphere will be primed for the potential for strong storms late this afternoon into this evening. severeIsolated thunderstorms are definitely in the cards and thanks to the abundant moisture and a good amount of wind shear expected, a few of those storms will have the capability of producing large hail and damaging wind. Enough rotation for the development for a tornado can’t be ruled out either. hailThere is nothing on radar yet, but we will have our eyes glued to the incoming system off to our west. Stay tuned here as well as on our Facebook page for more updates! – Greg

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Posted under heat wave, severe weather

This post was written by qni_it on May 20, 2014

Keep an Eye to the Sky

A good swath of the Midwest will be under the gun for the risk of severe weather today. Locally, we will see warm and even humid conditions for the better part of Mother’s Day. Temperatures will rise into the upper 70s and flirt with 80 in a few spots.

The main player in our forecast is a warm front positioned across Missouri and southern Illinois. As this warm front lifts north this afternoon and evening, scattered thunderstorms will develop along it. Some of these thunderstorms will be on the strong-to-severe side.

T'Storms along the Warm Front

T’Storms along the Warm Front

Weather forecast models vary on the exact timing of thunderstorm development. It appears that late afternoon into the after-dark hours will be the time frame. This will allow plenty of heating to take place during the day, which will help fuel any thunderstorm development.

Strong winds over 60mph, sizeable hail, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, and torrential rain will be possible in a severe thunderstorm. There is a risk of tornadoes today, primarily over Iowa and Kansas. However, some rotation is possible with local storms…..something which we will be monitoring.

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There is no need to panic, but today is a good day to be weather aware! If you haven’t already, I’d recommend downloading our 13 Exactrack app for your smart phone. It’s free and has a few of the tools we use to track the weather!

-Joe

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Posted under FutureTrack, safety, severe weather, weather

This post was written by Joe Astolfi on May 11, 2014

Storm Chances on the Rise

Severe weather on Saturday night will stay focused across Missouri and southern Illinois. However, a few showers and even a couple of thunderstorms will drift our way from Iowa overnight through sunrise.

T'Storm Chances Increase

T’Storm Chances Increase

Have that umbrella handy this Mother’s Day! Scattered showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast for Sunday. The best time frame for storms is during the afternoon and evening hours. With a warm front lifting north, our temperatures will rise into the middle and upper 70s across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. We’ll notice an increase in humidity as well.

T'Storms along the Warm Front

T’Storms along the Warm Front

That warm front will also act as a trigger for thunderstorms to develop. Cities such as Des Moines, Cedar Rapids, Omaha, Kansas City and Wichita have the greatest risk for severe weather, including the threat for a tornado. Locally, we will be at Threatrack Level 2. Strong wind, hail, torrential rain and cloud-to-ground lightning will be our biggest concerns. We may have to monitor the radar for possible rotation. Thunderstorms, however, will be scattered in nature.

Sunday: Threatrack Level 2

Sunday: Threatrack Level 2

Our thunderstorm chances stick around Sunday night and Monday. Monday could very well be another active day across the Midwest. We will remain at Threatrack Level 2 until a cold front sweeps through the area Monday night.

Monday: Threatrack Level 2

Monday: Threatrack Level 2

Keep it tuned to the 13 Weather Authority blog, WREX.com and our social media sites for the latest updates. -Joe

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Posted under FutureTrack, severe weather, Threatrack, weather

This post was written by Joe Astolfi on May 10, 2014

What to watch for tonight

10:25pm update – A few models are developing storms in this area over the next hour. So, even though it’s been quiet so far tonight, things could get a little more active. Still holding onto a good chance for storms with a few possibly severe. Quarter-sized hail and 60mph wind will be possible…but only if something pops in this area in the next hour or so. Will continue to watch…

radar

Showers and thunderstorms have a slight chance of producing some large hail and gusty, damaging wind. For that reason, we’re still in a Level 2 for Threatrack, although the most recent models keep our storms below severe limits. Nonetheless, we’ll be here to watch things for you. Below you’ll find an animation of Futuretrack. The threat of thunderstorms will end around 3:30am when the cold front will work through the area. However, with the front coming through during the night, we’ll lack a lot of the instability that was built up during the daylight hours.

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Posted under severe weather

This post was written by qni_it on May 8, 2014

Taste of Summer

We’ve only hit 80 degrees once this year. But today will mark the second time. Thursday is shaping up to be the warmest day of the year so far, with highs expected to surge into the low-to-mid 80s across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin.

Thursday

Thursday

It’s going to feel a lot like summer, with a south breeze, a touch of humidity, and the chance for pop-up showers.

Threatrack Level 2

Threatrack Level 2

By this evening and especially tonight, scattered thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage throughout the region. We remain at a Threatrack Level 2 for the risk of strong wind and hail tonight. Temperatures will remain fairly balmy overnight with lows in the lower 60s.

-Joe

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Posted under severe weather, Threatrack, weather

This post was written by Joe Astolfi on May 8, 2014