A Look Back 48 Years Ago and 11 Days Ago

We are 11 days removed from the EF-4 tornado that ripped through north central Illinois, beginning in Franklin Grove, stretching 43.5 miles through Flagg and into Fairdale. While locals and non-locals are pitching in on the effort of recovery for residents affected by 7 tornadoes on April 9th 2015, many are also remembering the devastation from a tornado that struck the Stateline nearly 48 years ago.

On April 21st, 1967 the city of Belvidere experienced a deadly tornado, with eerily similar damage to the EF-4 tornado on April 9th 2015, but this one was twelve times as deadly.

Let’s flash back to meteorology in the 1900’s. Right after World War 11, the weather community started the use of radars, which were around for about 30 years by the time the Belvidere Tornado occured.
4-9 radar imageIn 1948, less than 20 years before the 1967 tornado, Robert C. Miller and E. J. Fawbush correctly predicted the first tornado in Oklahoma.  10-15 years before the Belvidere Tornado, computers ran their first models of the atmosphere. Just 5 years before the deadly tornado hit Boone County, Keith Browning and Frank Ludlam published a detailed study of a supercell storm, the first one of it’s kind. In fact, it wasn’t until a few years after the Belvidere tornado that Dr. Tetsuya Theodore Fujita invented the “Fujita Scale.”

Are you catching my drift here? While the foundation and structure of much of meteorology was founded, knowledge and awareness was minimal on the atmosphere during the early and mid 20th century. This is a key contributor to the saved lives and safety of many Stateliners on April 9th 2015.

The tornado that devastated Boone County 48 years ago was rated an “F-4″ on the Fujita Scale. According to the Fujita Scale, an F-4 tornado *estimates wind speeds between 207 and 260 mph, and typical damage includes well-constructed houses leveled, weak foundation structures blown away, and cars thrown. We now know that the Fujita Scale could over-estimate wind speeds, which is why we now use the Enhanced Fujita Scale (another educational advancement).

Still, the damage we see in photos of the Belvidere Tornado in 1967 grimly mimic the photos being posted from Fairdale within the past 11 days.

According to Jim Allsopp, Warning Coordination Meteorologist at the National Weather Service, the Belvidere Tornado first struck just before 4PM 2 miles southeast of Cherry Valley. It went on to destroy 300 new cars and 100 employee cars at the Chrysler Plant, which was only a fraction of the damage it would go on to create. The tornado moved on to the southeast side of Belvidere, where 127 homes were destroyed and hundreds more were damaged.

At the time, Belvidere High School had just dismissed students onto buses filled with elementary school students. 12 buses were rolled over and children were flung into muddy fields.
belvtor2

 

In 2011, Ken Anderson (left) told WREX, “My bus (#30) was moved 100 yards by the tornado. I was wedged under a seat, my shirt soaked red with blood. I saw one, little body half buried in the mud. That memory, an 11 year old should never witness. In this picture, I am on the left (shirt tail out). That concerned look on my face marked the end of my childhood.” At Belvidere High School, 13 people were killed and another 300 were injured, which was just a little more than half of the havoc caused that day.

 

 

 

Dale Marks also vividly remembers April 21st 1967, “They tell me I was lucky. I only had both legs and pelvis broken. Our bus was just on the north side of the school. I think there were five people killed on my bus.’
belvtor1The Belvidere Tornado of 1967 went on to kill a total of 24 people and injure another 500.
To read Jim Allsopp’s full synopsis of the event, click here. To read all of the survivor comments from 2011, click here.

 

 

The Belvidere Tornado of 1967 was an F-4 and was up to 1/2 mile wide. It traveled 25-28 miles on the ground.
fairdale1The tornado that hit Fairdale (left) eleven days ago was an EF-4 that was nearly 1/2 mile wide. It traveled 30 miles on the ground.
But, what about the fatalities and injuries? During the 1967 F-4, 24 people were killed and another 500 were injured. During the 2015 EF-4, 2 people were killed and 22 were injured.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Education and awareness are saving people’s lives.

The Storm Prediction Center was able to put out the risk of severe weather nearly a week ahead of the April 9th event. The Chicago National Weather Service was able to implement watches and warnings with ample time to get to safety before these tornadoes struck communities. In fact, Ogle County Sheriff Brian Van Vickle stated, “I don’t think you could’ve asked for better warning.” Local TV meteorologists were able to give in depth explanations on air and online about WHY that Thursday could end with severe weather. We all could do this because of advancements in the world of meteorology.
4-9 radar image 2

In my opinion, the most important thing meteorologists can do is continue to explain to you WHY we could see dangerous weather, WHY we saw dangerous weather, or WHY we ended up not seeing dangerous weather. We’re living in a world with Google at our fingertips, with politics overlapping into sciences, and with education being pushed on everyone. We have been raised and trained to ask questions. Why would you believe something just because someone told you? You have the right to question. I think it’s our job to explain to you why it’s a threat, not just the fact that it’s a threat.

In my opinion, one of the most important things we as a community can learn from both of these deadly tornadoes, is the importance of heeding warnings and continuing to educate yourselves and listening to “the why” instead of chalking it up to “sensationalism,” “hype,” and even “TV ratings.”

Because awareness and education is one of the biggest contributing factors in the difference in death and injuries during severe weather.

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Posted under event, history, news, safety, science, severe weather, statistics, tornado, weather, weather geek

This post was written by Morgan Kolkmeyer on April 20, 2015

What is a satellite tornado?

April 13, 2015: You’ve likely heard or read about this term since the April 9th tornado outbreak in the Stateline: satellite tornado.  So, what is it?

A satellite tornado refers to a tornado that forms within the same severe thunderstorm of a much larger, more intense tornado.  The smaller tornado orbits around the larger tornado, much like a satellite does around a larger body in space.  The tornadoes are completely separate from the primary, massive tornado. The cause of satellite tornadoes is unknown at this time; however, if conditions were ideal enough to produce a large, violent tornado, then it seems reasonable that secondary tornadoes could form too.

Approximate paths of the EF-4 tornado and two satellite tornadoes

Approximate paths of the EF-4 tornado and two satellite tornadoes

So far, at least two tornadoes have been identified by the National Weather Service as being satellite tornadoes to the massive, devastating EF-4 tornado that hit near Rochelle, Ashton, and Fairdale on April 9th.  One was a weak EF-0 tornado that touched down briefly east of Lindenwood and I-39. The second was an EF-1 tornado that formed northwest of Kirkland, then moved to just north of the Boone Co. line.

The NWS is still investigating the damage from last week’s tornado outbreak, and more tornadoes may be identified, as well as additional tornadoes designated as satellites of the violent EF-4. This information may change a little, so we will keep the updates coming as we get them.

-Alex

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Posted under science, severe weather, tornado, weather

This post was written by Alex Kirchner on April 13, 2015

Looking back on April 9th, 2015

Last Thursday was our first taste of severe weather for the season and it was a very eventful day. The event started with a deepening, fast moving low pressure system. This low pressure system was the driving force for converging and gusty surface winds that evening. There was a strong frontal boundary difference making way for backing winds near the boundary helping rotation. The surface was very moist with dew-points observed at Rochelle and Sterling reaching 66° at one point. This became a perfect setup for a large and dangerous tornado.

The night began with some scattered strong thunderstorms, but no Tornado Warnings were issued until 6:09 PM and that is when storms started to fire up all across the Northern Illinois region.

TOR Timeline 9th

The first Tornado warning was for a radar signature of rotation just south of Cherry Valley. Soon after at 6:35 PM was the first issued Tornado Warning for a large wedge tornado near Ashton. Finally all tornado warnings had expired around 7:45 PM.

So far throughout the state of Illinois there have been 8 confirmed tornadoes. Four of these tornadoes were confirmed in the Stateline.

tornadoes april 9th

The strongest tornado being an EF-4 that tracked across Lee, Ogle, and DeKalb counties. This was the first EF-4 tornado on record in the Northern Illinois region since the community of Washington was struck by one in November of 2013. Wind speeds associated with this EF-4 Tornado were around 180-200 mph. This was the major tornado produced with this storm. There have been 2 fatalities confirmed with this tornado and more than 20 people injured. Structures in the small town of Fairdale, IL have been almost completely swept away.

The EF-4 was not the only tornado in the Stateline that was destructive. An EF-1 tornado with wind speeds up to 110 mph roared through areas just south of Belvidere. This EF-1 tornado first touched down near Flora Road where it impacted a zoo.  Two zoo animals died as a result of the damage caused by the tornado.

Then there were the two EF-0 tornadoes that were south of Cherry Valley and just south of Lindenwood that had little to no damage associated with them.

Here is a graphic posted by the National Weather Service in Chicago of the tracks of the four tornadoes.

nws tor tracks

This photo can be found on their Facebook and I have posted the link below. Also, surveying has not been completed all the way yet by the National Weather Service and when they come out with their newest information we will be sure to pass that along to all of you!

– Nick Jansen

National Weather Service Facebook post:

https://www.facebook.com/NWSChicago/photos/a.170461579677551.41001.164132806977095/900816173308751/?type=1&theater

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Posted under severe weather, tornado, weather

This post was written by Alex Kirchner on April 11, 2015

Rochelle Tornado Rating

April 10, 2015: The National Weather Service sent out damage survey teams to determine how many and how strong the tornadoes were that struck the Stateline Thursday evening. Today, they were able to put together a preliminary rating on the Rochelle tornado.  This was the massive wedge-shaped tornado that cause an unbelievable amount of damage outside of Rochelle, in Ashton, and in Fairdale. Turns out, that massive tornado was one of the strongest on the ratings scale.

The Rochelle tornado has been confirmed as an EF-4 tornado, preliminarily. The NWS survey team will conduct an aerial survey before the final confirmation.  This will help determine the tornado’s path, how long the tornado was on the ground, and if there were any additional tornadoes spawned from this massive twister (the NWS found evidence of at least one additional tornado).

The preliminary ranking and possible track of the Rochelle tornado

The preliminary ranking and possible track of the Rochelle tornado

The team estimates that the tornado was up to a half mile wide, with maximum wind speeds estimated between 180 and 200 mph. These winds speeds are able to level homes, which we unfortunately saw plenty of across the affected areas in Ogle, DeKalb, and Boone Counties. The survey so far sees this as a long track tornado, on the ground continuously for over 20 miles!

An EF-4 is considered a very violent tornado, and rated as one of the strongest tornadoes possible. In fact, had the winds been a little faster, this could have been an EF-5.

The EF-scale, which rates tornadoes based off of damage and wind speed

The EF-scale, which rates tornadoes based off of damage and wind speed

So why does the rating for a tornado come out after the tornado has struck? First of all, it is hard to determine a tornado’s size and strength based only off of the radar, or by photos or video evidence.  It is also extremely dangerous to be anywhere near a tornado, so its best to wait until the threat has disappeared. Analyzing the destructive power of the tornado helps determine the wind speeds more accurately, leading to the ranking for the tornado. This is why the National Weather Service conducts these investigations afterward.

The process for rating a tornado with the National Weather Service

The process for rating a tornado with the National Weather Service

The Rochelle tornado was not the only one of the day- there was at least one other tornado near Cherry Valley earlier in the evening, plus the possibility of other tornadoes developing near or with the Rochelle tornado. The National Weather Service will continue investigating this weekend, and will have rankings on the other twisters in the coming days.

-Alex

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Posted under severe weather, tornado, weather

This post was written by Alex Kirchner on April 10, 2015

Thursday’s Severe Threat

The threat for severe thunderstorms still exists on Thursday.

Before we get there, we see the development of showers and thunderstorms overnight on Wednesday, producing a quarter to a half inch of rainfall. As of right now, these thunderstorms do not look to have the capabilities of turning severe. Same story as we head into early Thursday morning. Scattered showers and possibly thunderstorms can occur. The chance of these posing a severe threat is low, but I DO NOT want to rule out the chance completely.

4-8-15 timing

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Storm Prediction Center has much of Illinois (including the Stateline) under an enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms.

4-8-15 spc convective outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We start to see the potential for these to turn severe as we head into the early afternoon. As of right now, it looks like thunderstorms will continue to develop and pose a severe threat between 1PM and 6PM on Thursday.

If these t’storms turn severe, the possible threats include damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes. Now is the time to start thinking of your safe place at home, work, and school. Please remember, tornado sirens are for outdoor warnings within ear’s reach. A NOAA Weather Radio is a great way to receive weather alerts indoors.

4-8-15 expect

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

In the hours ahead, key ingredients to producing severe thunderstorms can change quickly. We will continue to analyze new information throughout the day. Chief Meteorologist Alex Kirchner will have the latest on 13 News at 5, 6 and 10 tonight, to let you know if the timing or the threat for these storms changes.
Keep up with us on Facebook at www.facebook.com/13wxauthority and online at wrex.com/weather for the latest information.

 

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Posted under rain, science, severe weather, tornado, weather, Wind

This post was written by Morgan Kolkmeyer on April 8, 2015

Project: Tornado sign-up has begun

PT_BLOG_684x132

Attention teachers and principals: it is that time of year again! We want to come to your school!

Every year, WREX puts together an extensive education campaign called “Project: Tornado.”

The premise is simple: each school day for an entire month, the 13 Weather Authority team will speak to children about the power of severe weather. Our visits in gymnasiums and auditoriums are complete with interactive demonstrations, documentary video produced here at WREX, and ending with a question and answer session. Every student will go home with a full-color booklet so the information is shared with family and friends. Best part? It’s a free service of WREX!

We are very proud to have seen 40,000+ students complete our course in the past eight years. If you’re interested in our program, click here.

To sign your school up for Project: Tornado, click here. Make sure to include your preferred time slot when you choose your 1st and 2nd choices on the date!

-Alex

 

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Posted under Project: Tornado, safety, severe weather

This post was written by Alex Kirchner on March 10, 2015

Brief Taste of Heat & Humidity

The hottest day of the month—and potentially the hottest day of the summer so far—lies ahead of us on Tuesday. High temperatures will rise into the upper 80s and flirt with 90 degrees by the afternoon. It’s going to be hazy, hot and humid. Dew point values will rise into the 70s giving the air a tropical-feel.

Flirting with 90° Tuesday

Flirting with 90° Tuesday

Combining our air temperature and relative humidity gives us the heat index. The heat index is more or less a “real-feel” index when outside in a hot and humid airmass. The index Tuesday afternoon will reach the middle and upper 90s across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. If you’re going to be outside during the heat of the day, make sure to drink plenty of water and dress appropriately.

Feeling Pretty Hot

Feeling Pretty Hot

By Tuesday evening and night, a cold front will slide through the area. This will bring some scattered showers and thunderstorms.

There is a chance for an isolated stronger thunderstorm or two. Heavy rain and gusty wind are the main concerns. There is a small window for thunderstorm development before the front passes through and our airmass changes again. Cooler, less humid air is on tap for Wednesday through Friday with highs in the upper 70s.

-Joe

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Posted under severe weather, warm up

This post was written by qni_it on July 21, 2014

Line of Storms on the Way

A Tornado Watch is in effect for Boone, Carroll, DeKalb, Jo Daviess, Lee, Ogle, Stephenson, Whiteside and Winnebago County in northern Illinois until 7pm Monday. A Tornado Watch is also in effect for Green and Rock County in Wisconsin until 7pm.

Exactrack HD Doppler Radar: 3:30pm

Exactrack HD Doppler Radar: 3:30pm

A fast moving line of thunderstorms will barrel out of eastern Iowa for the late afternoon and in the the evening hours. The main threats with this line are strong, damaging wind gusts over 70mph, some hail, dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning, and very heavy rain. This line of storms is expected to reach the Rockford area just in time for the evening commute. Storms will likely exit the eastern half of our area just before sunset. Please keep an eye to the sky!

Be prepared to seek shelter as these thunderstorms are fast approaching. There is the possibility of some rotation in this line of storms….something that will have to be closely watched.  Flash flooding is also a concern with the potential for a couple of inches of rainfall. Keep it tuned to the 13 Weather Authority for the latest information!

-Joe

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Posted under flooding, safety, severe weather, weather

This post was written by qni_it on June 30, 2014

Hazy, Hot & Humid

The summer solstice arrives at the end of this week, so it looks like Mother Nature is cranking up the heat and humidity just in time. High temperatures this week will generally reach the mid-to-upper 80s with many of us flirting with that 90-degree mark.

This Week in a Nutshell

This Week in a Nutshell

When we factor in the humidity—which will become much more noticeable tonight through the middle of the week—there will be some discomfort in the air. Heat index values will rise into the 90s for at least Tuesday and Wednesday.

Tuesday Heat Index: 90s

Tuesday Heat Index: 90s

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast every day this week, although much of the time will be dry. Off-and-on rounds of thunderstorms will roll through the region every 18 to 24 hours or so. There is the risk for stronger storms with locally heavy downpours and high wind. We will be monitoring the severe threat through Wednesday.

Threatrack: Overnight through Tuesday Morning

Threatrack: Overnight through Tuesday Morning

The spotty coverage and timing of thunderstorms and left-over thunderstorm clouds to our west will affect what happens here in the Stateline. Keep it tuned to the 13 Weather Authority for the latest information.

-Joe

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Posted under FutureTrack, severe weather, weather

This post was written by qni_it on June 16, 2014

Severe weather event possible Tuesday night

There are strong signals from our models that a strong complex of thunderstorms will move across Iowa into Illinois. The latest trends put this corridor just south of the Rockford Metro. A surge of moisture-rich air will be inbound from the south which will keep these from moving in a straight west-to-east direction. During the afternoon, storms will form northwest of Omaha. Severe weather is likely across western Iowa and eastern Nebraska early on. As the storms move eastbound into Southern Iowa, they will produce large hail and a few tornadoes. By evening, they should start heading to the southeast targeting the Quincy-Hannibal area. Right now, the area at greatest risk will be from Des Moines into Central Illinois. While we will be on the northern fringes of this, there’s still a threat of very heavy rainfall, along with some large hail. If you have friends or family in the red-shaded areas or if you have travel plans in these areas Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, be mindful of rapidly changing weather! -ERICUntitled

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Posted under severe weather

This post was written by qni_it on June 2, 2014