Severe thunderstorms and even a few tornadoes were observed across the Great Plains States on Saturday afternoon and evening. That threat will shift a little further east on Sunday. The National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center has issued a moderate risk for severe storms in places such as Kansas City and Joplin in Missouri as well as Oklahoma City and Tulsa in Oklahoma. These areas will deal with the threat for damaging wind, large hail, frequent lightning, torrential downpours, and possibly a tornado.
There is also a risk for severe weather further north into Minnesota and Iowa for the day Sunday. By Sunday evening, that threat for a few stronger storms will exist here in northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. Hot and humid conditions are expected across the Stateline during the day with temperatures warming into the upper 80s. Much of the first half of the day will be dry, with just a slight chance for a shower or two. By late afternoon and early evening, a few thunderstorms will push into the area from the west. Thunderstorms are not expected to develop in an organized pattern locally, so not all backyards will see the rain. However, any strong storm we may see late Sunday will carry the primary threats of strong wind and large hail. Thanks to the setting sun, solar heating (which helps to destabilize the atmosphere and ‘fuel’ thunderstorm development) will come to an end and the threat for stronger storms will decrease quickly after dark. General showers and weakening thunderstorms will be scattered about the area overnight Sunday and fizzle out by dawn Monday.
Monday continues to have the best chance for severe thunderstorms. Should we see enough breaks in the cloudcover leftover from Sunday night’s storms, our high temperatures may be similar to Sunday’s. Otherwise, humid conditions and low 80s are in the forecast. A vigorous center of low pressure will continue to slide east and shower and thunderstorm development is likely out ahead of it in our area Monday afternoon. Some thunderstorms have the potential to take on supercell form, which includes the very slight chance for an isolated tornado. The main concerns for Monday will be damaging straight line wind, large hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall.
Stay tuned to the Weather Blog and WREX.com, or you can follow the 13 Weather Authority on Facebook and Twitter for all of the latest updates regarding the chance for severe weather in northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. -Joe
This post was written by Joe Astolfi on May 18, 2013