4th of July Holiday Weekend

I hope you enjoyed our fantastic weather on the 4th of July! Over the holiday weekend, we will bring back the chance for showers and thunderstorms. Saturday will have a mix of clouds and sun with a nice south breeze. High temperatures will return to near 80 degrees. There is a slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm, mainly after dark. Saturday night lows will fall into the lower 60s with an isolated thunderstorm or two.

Rain & Thunder Chances This Weekend

Rain & Thunder Chances This Weekend

The warmth and humidity will increase on Sunday. Highs will reach the middle 80s under a partly cloudy sky. A stray thunderstorm is possible early, but more organized shower and thunderstorm activity may throw a wrench into our evening plans.

Threatrack Level 2 for Sunday

Threatrack Level 2 for Sunday

We will be under a Threatrack Level 2 for a low risk of severe weather late-day Sunday. Some thunderstorms may have strong wind gusts, hail, and dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning. Keep an eye to the sky on Sunday.

-Joe

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Posted under Threatrack, weather

This post was written by qni_it on July 4, 2014

Storm Chances Dwindle for a Day

After a round of heavy rain with only a few claps of thunder this morning, the rest of the day is looking fairly dry. A stray shower may pop up here or there, but our chance for rain will continue to decrease throughout the rest of the day.

stormchances

Temperatures should still warm into the lower 80s. The humidity and breezy southwest wind will stick around before a cold front moves through, setting the stage for a more comfortable and mostly sunny Tuesday.

More Storms Early Weds.

More Storms Early Weds.

After midnight Tuesday and especially into early Wednesday morning, our chance for rain and thunderstorms with rise. Some of the storms may border on severe limits, with strong wind, hail, and heavy rain.

Threatrack Level 2: Weds AM

Threatrack Level 2: Weds AM

The worst of the weather is expected to stay just to our southwest, but I’d recommend being “weather-aware” before you go to bed Tuesday night!

-Joe

 

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Posted under FutureTrack, severe weather, Threatrack, weather

This post was written by qni_it on June 2, 2014

Storm Chances on the Rise

Severe weather on Saturday night will stay focused across Missouri and southern Illinois. However, a few showers and even a couple of thunderstorms will drift our way from Iowa overnight through sunrise.

T'Storm Chances Increase

T’Storm Chances Increase

Have that umbrella handy this Mother’s Day! Scattered showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast for Sunday. The best time frame for storms is during the afternoon and evening hours. With a warm front lifting north, our temperatures will rise into the middle and upper 70s across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. We’ll notice an increase in humidity as well.

T'Storms along the Warm Front

T’Storms along the Warm Front

That warm front will also act as a trigger for thunderstorms to develop. Cities such as Des Moines, Cedar Rapids, Omaha, Kansas City and Wichita have the greatest risk for severe weather, including the threat for a tornado. Locally, we will be at Threatrack Level 2. Strong wind, hail, torrential rain and cloud-to-ground lightning will be our biggest concerns. We may have to monitor the radar for possible rotation. Thunderstorms, however, will be scattered in nature.

Sunday: Threatrack Level 2

Sunday: Threatrack Level 2

Our thunderstorm chances stick around Sunday night and Monday. Monday could very well be another active day across the Midwest. We will remain at Threatrack Level 2 until a cold front sweeps through the area Monday night.

Monday: Threatrack Level 2

Monday: Threatrack Level 2

Keep it tuned to the 13 Weather Authority blog, WREX.com and our social media sites for the latest updates. -Joe

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Posted under FutureTrack, severe weather, Threatrack, weather

This post was written by qni_it on May 10, 2014

Taste of Summer

We’ve only hit 80 degrees once this year. But today will mark the second time. Thursday is shaping up to be the warmest day of the year so far, with highs expected to surge into the low-to-mid 80s across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin.

Thursday

Thursday

It’s going to feel a lot like summer, with a south breeze, a touch of humidity, and the chance for pop-up showers.

Threatrack Level 2

Threatrack Level 2

By this evening and especially tonight, scattered thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage throughout the region. We remain at a Threatrack Level 2 for the risk of strong wind and hail tonight. Temperatures will remain fairly balmy overnight with lows in the lower 60s.

-Joe

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Posted under severe weather, Threatrack, weather

This post was written by qni_it on May 8, 2014

Storm Risk: Next Few Days

1
A warm front will lift through Northern Illinois by Wednesday morning. A few thunderstorms will be possible, especially north of US20 into South-Central Wisconsin. A few storms could produce hail from pea to dime-size. Storm motion will be to the northeast with storm coverage about 30%.
2


There will be a small risk of severe thunderstorms for Central Wisconsin on Wednesday along the warm front. For Northern Illinois, the atmosphere will be capped (meaning there’s a cap or lid of warm air aloft. That warm air prevents the development of thunderstorms.)
3A cold front will need to be watched on Thursday. While most of the activity will be during the afternoon along the I-35 corridor (from Minneapolis to Des Moines and Kansas City), a few thunderstorms capable of producing strong wind could be incoming as early as 8pm Thursday. More than likely, we’ll be dealing with off and on thunderstorms Thursday night into the wee hours of Friday.

 

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This post was written by qni_it on May 6, 2014

Rain & Thunderstorms Arrive

Showers and thunderstorms will dot the radar screen on Sunday. Since the rain will be scattered in nature, there will be a few dry periods during the day. When it’s not raining, it will be mostly cloudy and windy. An east wind will gust up to 30mph at times.

Scattered showers & t'storms will become more numerous by Sunday evening

Scattered showers & t’storms will become more numerous by Sunday evening

Thunderstorms will increase in coverage Sunday evening and night, with heavy rain a good bet. The chance for any severe weather is low, but not zero. We are under a Threatrack Level 1 for Sunday, meaning general thunderstorms may contain some gusty wind and small hail. A local severe weather outbreak is not likely.

Sunday

Sunday

The highest risk for severe weather on Sunday will occur from the Quad Cities, Peoria, and points south. Tornadoes are possible in central & southern Illinois, southern Iowa, Missouri and Arkansas.

On Monday, the chance for showers and thunderstorms will continue across our area. Another threat of severe weather exists, but it appears things will stay active just south of our local area once again.

Monday

Monday

Should anything change, I will update this blog post.

-Joe

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Posted under FutureTrack, severe weather, Threatrack, weather

This post was written by qni_it on April 26, 2014

More T’Storm Development

After a day that brought ground-covering hail and temperatures near 80 to far northern Illinois, the threat for more thunderstorms is in the forecast. Scattered showers were beginning to develop in Iowa late this afternoon. It is expected that these showers further develop into thunderstorms as the afternoon and evening wears on.

waiting

Our chance for thunderstorms increases especially after sunset, as development in Iowa pushes east. A broken line of thunderstorms could produce very gusty wind and large, damaging hail. Frequent lightning and heavy rain will be likely under any thunderstorm.

threatty

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for far northwest Illinois and south central Wisconsin until 10pm tonight.

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Keep it tuned to the weather blog, Facebook, Twitter, WREX.com, and 13 News Weekend for the latest updates.

-Joe

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Posted under Exactrack|HD, severe weather, Threatrack, weather

This post was written by qni_it on April 12, 2014

First thunderstorms of the year

threatrackAn area of low pressure will scoot directly overhead around 11pm tonight. A few thunderstorms are expected between 7pm and midnight. A few storms could produce some small hail and brief, gusty wind. No widespread severe weather is expected. For that reason, Threatrack remains at Level-1.

Let us know what you’re seeing in real-time on Twitter! Use @13wxauthority or @ericsorensen to report storms! -Eric

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This post was written by qni_it on March 27, 2014

Ending October with Thunderstorms

Last week we saw several days with below-freezing temperatures. And if you’re like me, you probably came to grips with the fact that the warmth of autumn is probably behind us. While I don’t believe we’ll have another 60°, sunny day, there’s a good chance we’ll have a rainy 60-degree day this week…possibly two!

First, let’s take a look at how things will change in the next 24-36 hours. This is a look at the dewpoint temperature Monday at 10pm versus Wednesday 7pm.

1

Check out how the moisture surges northward out of the Gulf of Mexico! While you probably won’t break a sweat, it will feel a bit tropical Wednesday and Thursday with dewpoint temperatures in the middle 50s! 2That means Wednesday Night will be a warm one with thunderstorms and temperatures in the 50s and 60s…at night! Should we see a few sunny breaks either Wednesday or Thursday, we could see a few thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has our area outlooked for possible thunderstorm activity on Wednesday with possible severe weather for parts of Missouri, Kansas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Texas.

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Posted under Threatrack

This post was written by qni_it on October 28, 2013

Thunderstorm Update

4:00pm UPDATE:  Showers and thunderstorms have diminished in coverage locally, with severe weather affecting suburban Chicago.  It appears that the threat for any strong thunderstorms has moved out of the Stateline area.

4PM ExacTrack Radar

4PM ExacTrack Radar

(2:24 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS MKX: Como [Walworth Co, WI] trained spotter reports HEAVY RAIN of M1.02 INCH at 02:15 PM CDT — 1.02 inches of rain in 1/2 hour ending at 215 pm.

(1:57 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: N Capron [Boone Co, IL] public reports HAIL of penny size (M0.75 INCH) at 01:37 PM CDT — relayed via media.

(1:56 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Harvard [Mchenry Co, IL] public reports HAIL of penny size (M0.75 INCH) at 01:35 PM CDT — relayed via media.

(1:54 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: N Capron [Boone Co, IL] cocorahs reports TSTM WND GST of E50 MPH at 01:40 PM CDT — winds estimated around 50 mph and heavy rain.

1:45pm UPDATE: Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Walworth County in Wisconsin until 2:30pm. Moderate-to-large hail (up to half-dollar size) is the main concern, with heavy rain and gusty wind likely as well.

ORIGINAL POST: Saturday morning’s extensive cloud cover, which limited the heating and energy from the sun—one of the components for stronger thunderstorms—has helped to lower our already small severe weather threat.

Minimal-to-Low Severe Risk

Minimal-to-Low Severe Risk

With the cold front pushing its way across the Mississippi River accompanied by light showers, the best chance for strong-to-severe weather appears to be focused east of Interstate 39.  This is great news, considering this system produced tornadoes in Iowa on Friday.  I’ve lowered our Threatrack to Level 1 west of I-39 and kept it at Level 2 east of I-39, where a few storms from central Illinois could brush our eastern coverage area.

1:30pm ExacTrack Radar

1:30pm ExacTrack Radar

Until the cold front passes, pop-up showers and thunderstorms will contain heavy downpours with potentially small hail.  An isolated stronger storm may also contain gusty wind.  By dinnertime, the front should be east of our area.  Keep it tuned to the weather blog for more updates as necessary.

 

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Posted under Exactrack|HD, severe weather, Threatrack, weather

This post was written by qni_it on October 5, 2013