The heavy rainfall and scattered thunderstorms have moved on, for now that is. The next 24 hours will be focused around much cooler temperatures with overnight lows once again in the 30s, and tomorrow’s highs only in the low to mid 40s. Tonight a few scattered showers could flair up and there is a small shot that a few snow flakes might be seen late tonight into tomorrow morning. On the back side of this potential mixy precip, the wind will ramp up by tomorrow afternoon. Sustained wind speeds of 15-25 mph are likely with gusts above 30 mph. Hang on to your hats! -Greg

Posted under rain, snow, Wind, winter weather

Here’s a glance at Rockford’s March 2013 one last time.

If you can believe it, the normal high temperature for Rockford in March is 46.9 degrees. Sadly, March of 2013 brought us an average high almost 10 degrees cooler at 37 degrees. Our average low temperature followed the same trend, being 5.4 degrees cooler than normal. We actually only had 4 days with average temperatures above 40 degrees! What’s even more interesting is that Rockford averages 4 or 5 days of 60+ degrees in March, but this year we had ZERO! As a matter of fact, almost one third of our high temperatures and 94% of our low temperatures were below freezing! Here are two facts we can put some blame on for those cool temperatures: 1) 15 out of 31 days had an average wind flow out of the northwest. 2) 16 out of 31 days averaged cloudy skies.

Now, let’s talk about snow. Finally, a category we were above average in! On March 5th, 2013, Rockford received 9.6 inches of snowfall, crushing the previous record of 5.4 inches back in 1959. Actually, the average snowfall for March in Rockford is 4.8 inches- we almost tripled that! This March, we received 13.9 inches of snowfall. Not to mention, Rockford recorded precipitation for 21 out of 31 days!

Now we can finally say goodbye to cold, snowy March as we spring into April.

Posted under 13 Climate Authority, climate/climate change, record weather, snow, statistics, weather, winter weather

Get out those shovels, or maybe not.  Another round of snow will impact the Stateline on Sunday. However, our area will be on the northern fringe of this system.  What does that mean? For starters, our snowfall totals will be light!  Thanks to the track of this system—through the southern Plains and Ohio Valley—the significant snow accumulations will occur in Missouri, central Illinois, and central Indiana.  In fact, moderate to heavy snow will fall in a 1,500-mile swath from Denver all the way to Pittsburgh through Monday night!

In Rockford, we’ll have a dry, northeast wind which will help keep the atmosphere from saturating quickly on Sunday morning.  Also, thunderstorms are forecast for the Mid-South into the Southeast, drawing a lot of the energy and moisture far away from our area.

Snowflakes will begin to fly as early as the pre-dawn hours of Sunday, especially southwest of Rockford in the Sauk Valley.  Mid-to-late morning through early evening is our time frame for accumulating snow.  Generally, we will pick up 1 to 2 inches across the area.  Totals will be on the lighter side near and north of the Illinois-Wisconsin border (including metro Rockford).  Janesville and Monroe will be hard-pressed to even see 1 inch!  The further south you travel, including the Interstate 88 corridor, the better chance you have for picking up closer to 2 inches.  South of Interstate 88, there will be a few isolated pockets of 2+ inches.  If your travels take you even further south into Peoria, Bloomington-Normal, Champaign-Urbana, Springfield, St. Louis, or Indianapolis, accumulations of 6 to 12 inches can be expected.

While snowfall totals will be on the light side, a gusty northeast wind will create some blowing and drifting on rural roads and in open areas.  Gusts of 30 to 35mph are likely.  Lingering light snow showers or flurries are possible Sunday night through Monday.  Additional accumulation will be very light, if any.

-Joe

Posted under FutureTrack, snow, travel, weather, Wind, winter weather

We are closing in on the last week of March and have a very good shot at ending the month with only one day at or above the average high temperature. That is as far away from last year’s March as we could get. Last year we saw an impressive and highly unusually warm March with temperatures soaring above 80 degrees for nearly a week straight. Those well above average temperatures were a gift at the time, but they also helped spark our extreme drought that endured the rest of the year. This year’s temps are down, but our precip is steadily gaining ground and not going into the negative. I don’t know about you, but I can handle a few more weeks if it lessens our chances for another extreme drought this summer. -Greg

Posted under cold blast, drought, statistics, winter weather

Today is the first day of Spring when we should be gearing up for warmer weather and waving goodbye to Old Man Winter. However this year we are doing nothing of the sort as we could potentially set the record for the coldest high temperature ever on March 20th. The current record of 22° was set back in 1965! With a forecasted high temperature of 23° we have a shot at rewriting the record book. The average high on this date is 49°. With no high temperatures above 40° in the next 7 days, it looks as though Winter hasn’t given up just yet. -Greg

Posted under statistics, winter weather

Before reading this, please agree to the following:

1. Don’t panic.
2. Understand that the timeframe we’re talking about is still more than 100 hours into the future.
3. Understand that the purpose of this blog post is to talk about the possibility of a winter storm, not the probability of one.
4. Models will not be accurate this far in advance. Rather, they will give us clues as to possibilities.
4. Eric Sorensen does not make the weather happen.
5. Eric Sorensen cannot be blamed for this weather.
6. Eric Sorensen does not have the only job where he can get paid to be wrong every day.
7. Don’t go starting rumors that we are going to receive a foot of snow this weekend.

I’m going to dive right in here. The GFS model is either completely out to lunch or it brings us the biggest winter storm of the season. The dark blue represents 8-10 inches of snow. Now, can we say with confidence we will receive 8 inches of snow this weekend? Absolutely not.

It’s important to study the whole picture on the top of the puzzle box before beginning to assemble the puzzle. The GFS model has a developing area of low pressure ejecting out of Oklahoma on Friday. The stormtrack takes the low pressure system through Illinois to lower Michigan. A swath of heavy snow is possible from South Central Iowa into Wisconsin and Michigan Sunday into Monday.

But this is just one model’s solution. The ECMWF model has a much different scenario for the weekend. We can say with good confidence that there will be a storm system in the central part of the U.S. But whether this brings a heavy snow to Minneapolis or Memphis remains to be seen! Here’s a look at the ECMWF’s stormtrack. Areas shaded are most prone to snowfall accumulation with this track. Notice how far it is to our south. Instead of a snowstorm for the Upper Midwest, it would fall into the Southern Plains and Ohio River Valley, leaving us with nothing more than a few extra clouds.

Will we need to watch these forecasts carefully? Yes. Will we be posting more on the model solutions and forecasts here on the blog more frequently over the next few days? Absolutely. Can we expect more wintry weather even though winter officially ends Wednesday? Unfortunately. -Eric

Posted under winter storm, winter weather

We began this Winter with no snow to speak of until we hit mid December. It seemed as though the drought of 2012 might be sticking around into the new year. January didn’t help our odds much with a measly 2.7″ of snowfall. Then February came to town. We saw accumulating snow pile up in droves with 21.8″ falling in a mere 28 days. March has been fairly generous as well with 10.9″ of fresh powder adding to our totals. If we crunch the numbers and figure out how much snowfall we have seen in total for this Winter we find that number to be 38.5″. That puts us 0.4″ away from reaching the average seasonal snowfall in Rockford, and it is up from 24.3″ last. The only downside is the excess of cold air that has settled in lately. -Greg

Posted under snow, statistics, winter weather

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for Winnebago, Boone, Lee, Ogle, DeKalb Jo Daviess, Stephenson, Carroll and Whiteside Counties. A snow/freezing/sleet event moves into the Stateline this morning which could bring 1-2″ of snowfall accumulation as well as minor ice accumulations. Roadways this morning and early afternoon could have icy and slick spots so take caution when heading out today. Most of the snow accumulation add up this morning and early afternoon. -Greg

Posted under ice, snow, travel, winter weather

Here’s a quick look at some snow total climatology. We’re about halfway through the month of March and we’ve already exceeded the normal snow total by over 6 inches! I’m sure you can believe that this month has been the snowiest March of the millennium, with still more to come!

Based on climatology, Rockford’s average snow total for the entire month of March is 4.8 inches. We’ve actually only hit that value three times in the last 13 years! March of 2006, 2008, and 2013 have been above normal, while the rest have fallen short.

When we average each March since 2000, our total snowfall is only 3.2 inches. Although many of us are sick of the snow, we are still summing up to be under average this millennium by about 1.6 inches.

We’re all missing those 80 degree temperatures from last year’s March, right? March 2012 was the warmest on record, yet its snow total came very close to normal. Rockford saw 3.0 inches of snowfall that month, only 0.2 inches short of our millennial average. So, even though it was the warmest March on record, it was the 6th snowiest since 2000!

Posted under 13 Climate Authority, record weather, snow, statistics, weather, winter weather

We have now seen 12 out of 13 days this month where the Fahrenheit hasn’t reached our average high. As we look ahead to the next week, that trend looks to continue with highs in the 30s and occasionally low 40s. Last year on this exact same date we saw our first 80° temperature of the year, and the following week was equally as warm. Oh what a difference a year can make! -Greg

Posted under heat wave, statistics, winter weather