Severe Weather Risk This Week

The Stateline is looking at the risk of severe weather toward the end of the work week.

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Outlook that puts most of Illinois (including northern Illinois) under a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms.

4-6-15 SPC CONV OUTLOOK

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A very strong area of low pressure heads northeast toward much of the Midwest on Wednesday night, bringing the potential for severe weather along with it. Large hail, damaging winds, heavy rainfall, and the possibility of isolated tornadoes are the threats associated with this system.

4-6-15 SEVERE RISK

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The 13 Weather Authority will continue to track this system throughout the week. We will keep you updated on our 13 Weather Authority Facebook page www.facebook.com/13wxauthority and on twitter at @13wxauthority

In addition to our Facebook and Twitter pages, you can head to www.wrex.com/weather and use our Radar Room to see incoming showers and thunderstorms, as well as the latest watches and warnings issued. You can also head over to our Interactive Radar to track the storm yourself!

arrows to severe

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This week is a good time to review your severe weather plans!

-Morgan

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This post was written by Morgan Kolkmeyer on April 6, 2015
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Soggy Week Ahead with Possible Thunderstorms

The next week looks to be a soggy one with possible rain chances Monday through Friday, but I want to focus on the possible severe weather threat for Thursday. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) posted their Convective Outlook for April 9th and the Stateline falls within the outlook.

convective outlook april 9th

 

This means we will see a slight risk for some possible convective storms which could be severe. These storms have the potential to bring high winds, hail, and even the chance for an isolated tornado. Now with this still being almost 5 days out A LOT can change and we may not even see severe weather for Thursday.

So far models have been showing the strongest storms staying down to the south of the Stateline near Peoria, IL. We will continue to track the storms and investigate the possible threat for severe weather throughout the next week. Keep a lookout for Facebook, Twitter, and blog posts for more information on the upcoming weather!

– Nick Jansen

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This post was written by Alex Kirchner on April 4, 2015
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The Easter ‘Punny’ is Here!

We’ve got an EGGStraordinary forecast in store for the Easter bunny this year! As you SCRAMBLE to find plastic eggs during your early egg hunts, morning temperatures will rise to the middle to upper 40’s. HOPPING into the afternoon, temperatures will SPRING into the low to middle 60’s! HOPfully you like your Easter eggs SUNNY SIDE UP, because we’ll CRACK open the clouds and make way for sunshine. Unfortunately, we won’t have an EASTERly wind, as a high pressure system will funnel in a southwesterly wind throughout the day. To all the CHICKS out there, your HARE may be blowing around so you may want extra hairspray. Winds will be gusting up to 30mph. Don’t worry, it should still be an EGGSHELLent afternoon.

EASTER PUN

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

If you’ve had an OEUF of the clear sky, we work in some clouds later Sunday night, with a slight chance for a SPRINKLE.

Have a great Easter, YOLKS!

-Morgan

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This post was written by Morgan Kolkmeyer on April 3, 2015
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Another Lunar Eclipse is Coming

April 2, 2015: Set your alarm for an early start Saturday- the 3rd in a series of total lunar eclipses visible from North America is on its way. You’ll want to get out and look for it quickly, however, as the eclipse doesn’t last long this time around.

Saturday is the 3rd of four consecutive total lunar eclipses, roughly 6 months apart from each other.

Saturday is the 3rd of four consecutive total lunar eclipses, roughly 6 months apart from each other.

The eclipse will start at 5:15 am local time, but the Moon will not be fully into Earth’s shadow until 6:58 am.  This is when the nickname “blood moon” goes into effect, as the Moon takes on a reddish hue from the Earth’s shadow.

There may be two problems with viewing Saturday’s lunar eclipse in the Stateline:

1) The total eclipse will only last 4 minutes and 45 seconds.  If you are hoping the catch the moon fully engulfed in the red hue, you best be in place and ready!

2) The eclipse will take place after sunrise in the Stateline. Sunrise will occur at 6:34 am on Saturday, which might make viewing difficult.  Look for the Moon to be low on the western horizon.

If you miss or can’t see Saturday’s eclipse well, there is another chance coming later this year. The next one arrives on September 28, which will be the last in a series of four consecutive total lunar eclipses, or “tetrad”.  The first two were last year on April 15 and October 8.

Happy viewing!

– Alex

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This post was written by Alex Kirchner on April 2, 2015
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April Showers Kick Off Tonight

April 1, 2015- I’m glad this wasn’t an April Fool’s joke: we reached the upper 70’s today!  In Rockford, that was over 20 degrees above average!

The “heat” doesn’t last long- a cold front drives through tonight, giving us another shot as our first thunderstorm since late September.

radar3

The front is moving through Minnesota this evening, with thunderstorm activity starting to heat up ahead of the front. We like won’t see any wet weather until well after midnight.

Futuretrack for Thursday morning

Futuretrack for Thursday morning

Here’s Futuretrack during the Thursday morning drive. Most of the rain looks to move through then, with widespread showers over the Stateline. By that point, we’ll have cooled off into the 50’s, so there won’t be as much energy in the atmosphere as there is now.  We may only here a few rumbles of thunder before the showers move out at the end of the morning, and no severe weather for the Stateline.futuretrack

T-storm activity ramps back up again tomorrow afternoon as the atmosphere heats up ahead of the advancing cold front. By this point, the showers will be past us.  Severe storms are possible as a result near the southside of Chicago and into central Illinois and northwest Indiana.

4

You may have seen or heard this a few times today from me, but if we do have thunder tonight or tomorrow morning, it would be for the first time in over 6 months! I’m keeping my fingers crossed!

-Alex

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This post was written by Alex Kirchner on April 1, 2015
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Out Like A Lamb?

March 31, 2015: You know how the old saying goes: March is in like a lion, out like a lamb.  That phrase wasn’t too far off, if you look at our temperature trend for the month.

Daily high temperature for March 2015, with the average high plotted in pink

Daily high temperature for March 2015, with the average high plotted in pink

The start of this March was very chilly, coming off one of the coldest Februarys in Rockford’s history. A little over 2 weeks later, temperatures were soaring into the 70’s. Another burst of very cold air sent us into the freezer for a while, then right at the end of the month, we jumped back up above average, completing the old phrase “out like a lamb”.

This month was a great example of how volatile March can be.  Retreating cold winter air can still have a significant influence, while the transition to longer days leads to more sunlight, more daytime heating, and much warmer weather. Just take a quick look at our average high temperature each day; we warm up 14° over the 31 days.

The start of April looks to be in the 60’s to 70’s for a few days, then a push of colder weather sends us into the 40’s to 50’s. That still is much warmer than some of the weather we had at the end of March, and hopefully we can say good-bye to those days in the 30’s for a while.

-Alex

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This post was written by Alex Kirchner on March 31, 2015
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From Winter to Spring…

March 30, 2014- Now that all is said and done, what a transition from last week to this week!  If you compare just last Monday to today, you’ll have a microcosm of how last week vs. this week will play out.

Comparing last Monday (the 23rd) to today (the 30th)

Comparing last Monday (the 23rd) to today (the 30th)

A week ago, we were scraping up 5″ of snow and languishing in temperatures nearly 20 degrees below average (and trying not to compare the situation to the Monday before that when highs were in the 70’s). Today, Rockford was over 30 degrees warmer, with a little non-frozen precipitation sprinkling over the Stateline.

Comparing the high temperature readings from last week to the forecast for this week

Comparing the high temperature readings from last week to the forecast for this week

Looking at the forecast for this week and comparing it to high temperature readings from last week, the stark contract continues. We will be at least 20 degrees warmer each day this week compared to last, and our coldest day this week will be as warm as the warmest day last week!

So if you need some good news to help you get through the start of this new week, keep thinking about the spring weather we have in store for the week ahead, and how much nicer it will feel compared to last week!

-Alex

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This post was written by Alex Kirchner on March 30, 2015
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March Snow Vs. March Rain

Now that March is nearing an end, we’re taking a peek at how much precipitation Rockford has received.

Let’s start with snow (since it feels like winter out there)! Rockford normally sees almost 5 inches of snow throughout the month of March. Up until last Monday, we were well below the normal mark. Monday, 5.1 inches of snow fell at the Rockford Airport, bringing our monthly total to 7.6 inches!

2-26-15 march catching up

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Now for the rainfall.
Rockford usually gets 2.32 inches of rain throughout the month. So far, we’ve only gotten about an inch and a quarter of rain. This Sunday, there’s a good chance we’ll add to that rain total bringing us a little bit closer to average before rounding out the month of March.

 

-Morgan

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This post was written by Morgan Kolkmeyer on March 27, 2015
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Illinois Earthquake

March 25, 2015: There was a little moving and shaking in Illinois today, though we in the Stateline likely didn’t feel much.  A minor earthquake occurred this evening in the far northwest corner of the Chicago metroplex, north of Elgin in McHenry County.

EARTHQUAKE

Seismographs operated by the U.S. Geological Survey measured a magnitude 2.9 on the Richter Scale, or enough of a jolt to barely shake indoor objects.  People in the area may have felt a little a little shaking.  No damage to buildings is possible with such a light tremor.  The tremor was measured to originate from a depth of 10 kilometers below the ground, or around 6.3 miles down.

Fault lines do run through and near Illinois, so little quakes like these can shake up from time to time.

-Alex

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This post was written by Alex Kirchner on March 25, 2015
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Spring Showers

March 24, 2015: We are all over the place this March, aren’t we? Last week, we had highs reach the 70’s. A week later, 5″ of snow. Tonight, another sign of spring: showers and possible thunderstorms.

Much warmer air plus increasing moisture is firing up showers and t-storms tonight

Much warmer air plus increasing moisture is firing up showers and t-storms tonight

The set-up: two areas of low pressure helping move much warmer, moist air into the Midwest. The jet stream is also aiding in proving the proper upward motion through the atmosphere, along with helping steer the storms toward us.

Temperature map from 8 PM tonight

Temperature map from 8 PM tonight

Dewpoint temperatures from 8 PM tonight; the higher the number, the more moisture in the air

Dewpoint temperatures from 8 PM tonight; the higher the number, the more moisture in the air

You can see on the temperature and dew point maps the contrast between the air over the Stateline, and the incoming warmth and moisture from the south and west.

Radar image from 8 PM tonight; you can see how the showers are developing where the warm and moisture surge into cooler/drier locations

Radar image from 8 PM tonight; you can see how the showers are developing where the warm and moisture surge into cooler/drier locations

The result: lots of spring showers.  There may be just enough instability in the atmosphere that we could hear a few rumbles of thunder after midnight.

Futuretrack model rainfall through Wednesday evening

Futuretrack model rainfall through Wednesday evening

In total, we are looking at 1/2″ to 3/4″ of rain to fall tonight.  Futuretrack shows some areas possibly getting close to an inch of rain; these are the spots that are more likely to have a little t-storm activity tonight.

– Alex

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This post was written by Alex Kirchner on March 24, 2015
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