Updated Snowfall Forecast

Snow totals have been trimmed back for this event. With the mixing of sleet (heavy at times) and freezing rain last night and the rain this morning, totals just didn’t add up as orginally thought earlier this week.

Most areas around here saw about 3-5″ of snow with a few locations receiving a little more. The big winners were just to the north of our viewing area in southern Wisconsin where some places received close to a foot of snow.

Unless something changes with the forecast for this evening, it still looks like we’ll pick up a couple more inches through tonight and Monday. Totals for the whole storm event (including Friday night) will be close to 6-7″ here and over a foot in southern Wisconsin.

I did want to discuss a little about this storm. As you all know, the track of the system is very important in determining snow totals and precip type. The low pretty much tracked right over us in Northern Illinois. A good rule of thumb (along with other methods) is that the heaviest bands of snow will set up just to the north and west of where the low pressure tracks. So that would have put the heaviest bands in Northeastern Iowa and Southern Wisconsin…which for the most part held true. With the December 1st snow storm, the low tracked just a little further south and that put us in the favorable region. Models were also having a hard time picking up on the warm air that was occurring just a few thousand feet up in the atmosphere. Temperatures started below freezing at the onset of the storm, but then during the evening last night they rose into the middle 30s. This caused the snow to mix with freezing rain and sleet which can really take down the snow totals. We also had fairly strong easterly winds during Saturday afternoon, so it took awhile for the snow to overcome the drier air.


Posted under Uncategorized

This post was written by qni_it on February 25, 2007

12 Comments so far

  1. Mark February 25, 2007 4:27 PM

    6.7 inches total here in Harvard measured at 12.30am this morning. Some ice and sleet on top of that…..horrible to shovel.

  2. Anonymous February 25, 2007 5:02 PM

    I just want to say I appreciate all the time and effort you put into trying to keep the public aware of what is going on with this storm.

    For those who are so critical, think about it. If it were 10 degrees warmer or 10 degrees colder, it wouldn’t matter one whit whether the air temp prediction was off by a few degrees. But when it is so close to the freezing mark (at so many different levels of the atmosphere) a degree or 2 this way or that can make all the difference between an inch of rain or a foot of snow.

    I’m sure it is challenging to predict – these guys did a great job.


  3. Anonymous February 25, 2007 8:50 PM

    Anonymous said…
    Ya see this is how you get people to watch the weather. Try and scare em into watching. Rockford we recieve no more than 6″

    5:50 PM, February 23, 2007

    Told ya………2 days ago!!!

  4. 13 Weather Team February 25, 2007 9:22 PM

    My sister north of Elkhorn,WI had 14 inches. Areas south of Rockford got no snow at all. Maybe next time we’ll forecast 0-14″.

    On Friday night, I had a conversation with the NWS about the storm and I posted all of the information right here. -ERIC

  5. rg February 25, 2007 10:20 PM

    ERIC, pay no attention to “anonymous” posters who can do nothing but criticize. If they’re so great, let them put their name on their words, get a job or start a consulting company, make their predictions and see how they fare. Meanwhile I think I’ll be looking at Ch 13 for my weather info.

  6. Anonymous February 25, 2007 10:39 PM

    I honestly think 13 weather did a superb job with this storm. yes the totals were lower than originally thought, but like the blog said, when you have warmer temps a few thousand feet above the ground, the models can miss it. i have a feeling this will be the last snowstorm of the season. hopefully this isnt a sign of a horrendous severe weather season.

  7. rg February 25, 2007 11:56 PM

    Ummm… it would be nice if this were the last snowstorm, but don’t I remember reading somewhere that March is historically the snowiest month of the year?

    We’re not even there yet.

    And I see there’s another “precip event” coming toward the end of this week. NWS is saying it will be rain. We’ll see.

    Don’t put yur shovel away just yet. That’s my prediction!

  8. Anonymous February 26, 2007 2:46 AM

    I’m kindof curious i was looking on next saturday’s forecast/ Is that a misprint that says blizzard warning for next saturday? Or is that from just this past saturdays warnings we had???

  9. 13 Weather Team February 26, 2007 2:51 AM

    I haven’t updated the website yet. Thanks for reminding me. Sorry!

  10. Anonymous February 26, 2007 3:00 AM

    That’s alright, i’ve been having problems getting onto the site tonight and i was only able to get on once and i couldn’t get back on since. So i thought maybe it was on my side.

  11. 13 Weather Team February 26, 2007 3:04 AM

    I’m having problems too, so I’ve posted the 7 Day forecast!

  12. Anonymous February 28, 2007 6:23 AM

    13 Weather Team said…
    My sister north of Elkhorn,WI had 14 inches. Areas south of Rockford got no snow at all. Maybe next time we’ll forecast 0-14″.

    That sounds pretty close to your normal predictions

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