Still keeping our eyes on tomorrow

If were you weren’t lucky enough to see a few rays of sunshine today, your chances aren’t looking very good for tomorrow, either.

All eyes remain on the system set to start affecting us tonight. Heavy rain will be our first concern – moisture from the Gulf will be pumped into the central part of the nation with all signs pointing to a widespread heavy rain event. Our two main computer models are both giving our entire area an inch of rainfall. They’re not able to capture the even finer scale features like individual thunderstorms, so anybody who has a few of those go over their heads will be at risk for even higher rainfall totals. With rivers and streams running high and our soils saturated from recent snowmelt, the rain is going to run off and create some flooding concerns. If you live, work, or travel near rivers or streams, be mindful of how the water is behaving. Never, ever cross a flooded roadway under any circumstances.

A secondary impact will be the risk of severe weather. The Rockford metro is just outside the slight risk outlook boundary, but remember that we were within it just yesterday. It looks to me like hail will be the main issue that the more vigorous storms give us. It’s pretty cold not too far aloft, so a storm will only need to grow to 8,000-10,000 feet to start producing hail. As the cold front pushes through on Monday night, some storms start bowing outward to cause some gusty winds. The severe threat does look somewhat marginal since we’ll be pretty much socked in cloudcover all day. Naturally, we’ll be monitoring how this system unfolds through the day tomorrow to see if any of the fine details change.

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This post was written by qni_it on March 30, 2008

5 Comments so far

  1. tony March 31, 2008 12:59 AM

    Justin, do u think the rain will stay away from wrigley long enough for the cubs to play their home opener tomorrow without postponing, or is that in serious doubt.

  2. Justin Gehrts March 31, 2008 1:05 AM

    It doesn’t look too good.

  3. WI Weather Buff March 31, 2008 2:47 AM

    Looks (to me) like just a continuation of the same pattern that brought us all that sn*w … except its too warm to snow any more, so now we’re getting rain.

    How long will this “La Nina” event last?

  4. tony March 31, 2008 3:11 AM

    I think adam posted a while back that the la nina won’t pull out til late spring, early summer. So we might be in for a lot of rain and severe weather until then.

  5. Justin Gehrts March 31, 2008 3:20 AM

    The Climate Prediction Center is expecting La Nina to continue through the summer, although they believe it’ll start weakening in the next few months.

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