Recipe for Storms

We do have a good recipe cooked up for thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and evening. The skies are only partly cloudy right now, which is causing the lower levels of the atmosphere to heat up efficiently. Temperatures should have little problem jumping into the upper 80s by 2pm. Dew points are oppressively high right now with most locations sitting in the low 70s. The frontal boundary is sitting out in central Iowa as witnessed by the change in wind direction from the surface data.

Despite all of these wonderful ingredients in place, nothing has started developing and some of the models aren’t completely sold on brewing up storms. The GFS model has our probability of precipitation at less than 20%, while the NAM merely has us at a 30% chance. As of 11:30am, the Storm Prediction Center had taken the Stateline OUT of the slight risk for severe weather. This could very well be an all or nothing event. From my viewpoint, the highest likelihood for the timeframe of these storms to get going would be between 3pm – 8pm. Now it is just time to play the waiting game. If anything starts to spark, I am sure Eric will get the live chat up and running. -ADAM


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This post was written by qni_it on July 29, 2008

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