10 Day Trend

tendaytrendWe will be showing an “extended-extended” on a trial basis where we will forecast for the next ten days.

Our thoughts? We know that the farther you forecast, it becomes a a crapshoot but we get a lot of calls wanting to know about long-term trends (ie. festivals, weddings, graduations, etc). What are your thoughts on this? We’d love some opinions either way!

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Posted under weather

This post was written by qni_it on August 17, 2009

13 Comments so far

  1. Jeff August 17, 2009 6:07 PM

    This is a great idea as long as people take it for what it’s worth, just trends and not exact temps/precip chances. At least this way you can do some advance planning based upon the overall trend. Some websites publish 15 day forecasts, so this isn’t going out on a limb as much as other sites.

  2. tony August 17, 2009 6:40 PM

    I also think it’s a great idea. Especially with all the fairs going on and OTW coming in a couple weeks, then all the other major holidays, people will want to get an idea of what it might be like it 10 days. I think it should become a permanent thing.

  3. Eric Sorensen August 17, 2009 6:40 PM

    Thanks! -ES

  4. tony August 17, 2009 6:50 PM

    No problem Eric. Now if you did decide to that on a permanent basis, would it replace the current 7 day outlook here on the blog.

  5. BobinMachesney August 17, 2009 7:58 PM

    Eric,
    I think its a great idea especially with the technology that is in place now. People will still have to be trained that it is still a guesstimate based on what the models are showing now but I think it will be very useful tool.

  6. Jim H. August 17, 2009 8:18 PM

    I don’t think its a good idea. I’ve learned that anything past three/four days out can change. For example, this coming Friday and Saturday highs are now forecasted to be a high of 70 degrees, whereas yesterday it was forecasted around 74 (if i remember correctly).

    Another thing with a 10day is you get systems like the hurricane in the atlantic. The movement on that hurricane indirectly affects our weather; sometimes those things have a mind of their own.

    I remember when we had the five day forecasts locally, which, usually, were enough.

  7. Lynn-Rockton August 17, 2009 8:30 PM

    I think it’s a great idea, however I agree with Jim H that our weather changes frequently and so do the forecasts.

  8. Justin August 17, 2009 10:20 PM

    Sounds like a good idea. You guys should keep track of what you forecast 8-10 days out and how the weather actually turns out. If its accurate enough keep it.

  9. Eric Sorensen August 17, 2009 10:30 PM

    Jim: Totally agree with you. Last night I had a pair of 73’s for Friday and Saturday and with more information at my disposal now shaved them to 70. I contemplated doing “60s,” “70s,” “80s” but it would look weird to have exact numbers for 7 days then put ranges at the end.

    As for keeping track of our forecasts, we are usually about 75-80% in days 1-3…lower for the following days. That would be why we aren’t dressing it up as a forecast, only making it a trend.

    Thanks for the comments and keep them coming. Still undecided whether it will be a permanent addition.

  10. WI Weather Buff August 18, 2009 3:04 AM

    I think that the 10-day is very speculative. I appreciate the thought, but hope that you mark it as very tentative. I’m afraid that what will happen “in real life” is that people will make plans based on the 10 day and then criticize y’all when it changes, which it inevitibly will.

    I suppose its up to you whether you want to do that or not. One of the pieces of wisdom I learned from one of my wise bosses along the way was, “If you think you are likely to be wrong, don’t put it in writing.”

    😉

  11. Spring Creek & Alpine August 18, 2009 8:36 AM

    I don’t think it’s a great idea. It’s just so difficult to predict even within a couple of days – or even less. For example, Sunday morning the 16th we canceled a 1 pm BBQ for 20 people because the 8:30 am forecast said heavy rain and storms all afternoon. The storms dissipated and missed us and we could have had the party.

  12. Justin Gehrts August 18, 2009 9:15 AM

    Normally I wouldn’t chime in on a wrong forecast, but in my defense, here’s what I said during my 10pm weathercast Saturday night:

    “… for [Sunday], especially in the afternoon hours, scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm here or there. Should be plenty of dry hours, though, don’t be too concerned about that. Just make sure you’re prepared in case it does rain.” I followed that up with stating there was a better chance of rain Sunday night along with the threat of locally heavy rain.

    That’s a far cry from “heavy rain and thunderstorms all afternoon.” Just sayin’. 😉

  13. Spring Creek & Alpine August 18, 2009 3:33 PM

    Duly noted, Justin. Unfortunately, on Sunday morning all of the “updated” forecasts and radar that were available conflicted with your Saturday night post.

    We’re trying to reschedule for this Sunday, which although cooler, appears to be dry at this stage of the game 😉

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