Snow event possible Wednesday night

snowfallSnowfall forecast graphic from the global computer models. The maroon line is the midnight run of the NAM model. The bright red line is this morning’s model run. I don’t believe this is going to be an 8 inch event, however all variables will be watched closely! The GFS model has not come into line with accumulating snow here. However this is expected in this evening’s runs. It seems prudent at this time to start talking about an accumulating snow event for the Rockford region Wednesday night into Thursday. Stay tuned. We always have the latest insights on our exclusive weather blog. -ES

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This post was written by qni_it on November 30, 2009

13 Comments so far

  1. Aaron Brackett November 30, 2009 4:45 PM

    wow, it sure is amazing what one day can do with the models and the track of this system. Yesterday, it was looking to be weaker and further east.

    -AB

  2. tony November 30, 2009 5:03 PM

    I know this is the time of year when I start watching the models also, with the winter months coming. I hope we do get some decent snow out of this since I am a snow lover.

  3. tony November 30, 2009 7:53 PM

    Eric, do you think the developing storm will be out of mexico by the time the 6pm model runs start coming out.

  4. WI Weather Buff November 30, 2009 8:24 PM

    Eric, I’m probably going to embarrass you with the rest of this post, and you deserve it. 😉

    This Weather Blog post of yours, and the one previous, are perfect examples of how your leadership in the WREX weather department has developed it into one of the finest broadcast (really multi-) media weather departments that I have ever seen. Anywhere.

    And just for the record, I have lived in many broadcast media markets of many different sizes and characters, from LA to Boston to NYC to Oregon State, to Indiana, Kentucky and Minnesota and of course Wisconsin.

    First of all, you are – and have been all along – on the absolute cutting edge, among the best of the best, in helping to transform what used to be “TV Weather” into an integrated multimedia presentation of all the weather info your viewership needs, wherever they need it and whenever they need it.

    Second – and this specifically relates to this blog post and the previous one – this kind of information is such high quality and intelligent “mass media” – it truly stands out in the crowd.

    Obviously you don’t want to “call” a major winter event when you don’t have enough data in to know what will develop (nobody does). So instead of keeping your viewers uninformed until you can be more certain, you give us the raw data, a tutorial on how to think about that raw data, and your impression of what that raw data means based on your professional training and experience.

    This is absolutely perfect, because it educates the viewers, and at the same time gives us the tools to make our own judgment calls about the uncertainties presented by Mother Nature.

    For example, as I’ve posted here before, I commute 125 miles every day (at least – and that’s when I don’t have business to conduct even further north that day). To me, having the best possible info about upcoming weather every day is HUGE, because it affects my safety, and it affects how I schedule my life. For example, seeing this — not forecast exactly, but advance raw data + tutorial about this coming week — I was able to look at my calendar and rearrange it a little so that I could telecommute on Thursday if necessary, but if not necessary I will just go to work as planned.

    Two things to note here: first of all, I was able to get the info even though I was at work in Madison, WI, out of broadcast range of WREX, thanks to this Weather Blog. Second of all, I was able to make a decision about what to do, uncertainty and all, because I had the right info and the right tools to interpret the available info in order to make a decision on how to act.

    For me that is HUGE — in fact, in all honesty, it is what makes the difference (for me, anyway) between having such a long daily commute be chaotic, dangerous and foolhardy, and having it be safe and possible.

    THANK YOU ERIC for ALL YOU DO for the Weather Buffs, the casual weather observers, the students of weather, the fans, and all the rest of the people who count on your information every day!

  5. Jim H November 30, 2009 9:05 PM

    What a great post, Buff. I totally agree with you 100%.

  6. tony November 30, 2009 9:12 PM

    I agree with buff 100% also. I have seen times when eric sees a possible storm brewing a week in advance and he gives us a heads up immediately and is always accurate. I have only see a couple times when a forecast the eric gave didn’t pan out. But hey thats mother nature for you. And also 13 interacts with its viewers and bloggers through the chat on here when there is severe weather or a major winter storm. (and i do miss seeing the chat on here). Whenever I know there is a possible storm coming, I am always checking this blog to see if cyndi, Aaron, or Eric has posted updates. No other weather team does that. That is why 13 rocks forever. Keep up the great work eric, cyndi, and aaron.

  7. Jim H November 30, 2009 9:24 PM

    Off topic. Just found this on Amazon: “Wrex the Dawg”. lol who knew? http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/B001ALK364?tag=slickdeals

  8. Sara P November 30, 2009 11:52 PM

    I could not agree more with WI Weather Buff’s description of the incredible service that the WREX team offers–well, I would say “viewers,” but I don’t own a TV, so “consumers” might be a better noun–as well as the praise. The WREX weather team are educators of the highest order.

  9. Eric Sorensen December 1, 2009 12:03 AM

    Wow! Buff, what a way to start the week! 🙂 Thanks so much for the honest, kind words! The profession of Broadcast Meteorology is changing big. Heck! When I started my career, my TV station didn’t even have a website and now look where we are. I’ve gotten into arguments with colleagues outside of the Rockford are about when you put up the yellow or red flag when it comes to storms. I say just let it out as you know it. Now, I may not be as forthcoming on the air as I am on the blog. I do that because our bloggers are those with interest and some knowledge of weather. Our viewers want to see the 7 Day.

    This business is changing fast. Honestly, I don’t know where we’ll be in a few years but I see a day when we’ll be able to do live webcasts and weather on demand online and on the air. Now if I could keep the snow away from your commute… 😉

    Looking at the evening models I still think the initialization of the low is poor (having the center of the low over Mexico). Once that heads into Texas tomorrow morning, we’ll know a lot more and be able to pinpoint a track. I am still going with a track from Louisiana to London, Ontario. This scenario brings us some snow but gives the travel headaches to Indiana and Michigan. -ES

  10. Sean gay December 1, 2009 1:13 AM

    I’m kinda sad were not getting our annual snow today 🙁 bummer. It’s a fun bday thing for me! 🙂

  11. tony December 1, 2009 10:45 AM

    That is why I am always checking the blog any chance I get when I am online. Because Eric,cyndi and Aaron can detail so much more on here than you can on the air when you have like 4 or 5 mins to get through so many maps and explain everything,whereas on the blog you have all the time in the world to get into greater detail. Plus on this blog you can click through the archives to remember big weather events over the last few years and check to see the posts before the event happened.

  12. David December 1, 2009 10:36 PM

    It is finally December again, and in recent years, we have had a lot of fun with storms on or very near Dec. 1. What a great blog from Wi weather Buff (given a day ago)! I am in this same general area of far S. Wisconsin. I am so glad that I have the internet, as, since the change in T.V. broadcasting early in the year, I cannot pick up wrex anymore. I miss you after 5 p.m., but am glad I can still get so much great data on-line! Yes, the Janesville NOAA weather radio also wavered a bit, from 20% chance for snow showers, to 30% for light snow, back to the 20% chance for just snowshowers again, and most recently, to primarily just a chance for some flurries!

  13. custom essay papers July 11, 2011 3:02 PM

    How do you make such diagrams? I need it very much.

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