Greenland Block in action

Many of you have been asking “Where’s El Nino?” According to NOAA, El Nino continues in the Eastern Pacific (click here for more). However, what has been driving our cold pattern is a blocking pattern in the jet stream. A few weeks ago, I wrote about the North Atlantic Oscillation, which has gone negative. This is certainly still affecting us as the jet stream continues to be buckled into Greenland. This, much like an old fashioned scale, brings warmer air from the Atlantic and surges it northward. In turn, Arctic air is dislodged from Northern Canada, allowing it to spill into Central Canada and the United States. This pattern is expected to continue for at least the next few weeks. However, forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center are forecasting this to be temporary with more El Nino conditions forseen in the United States into the latter part of January into February.

Personally, I hope this is correct. Let’s get rid of the winter’s extreme chills early with a milder end to the season. If you’re wondering, we’re way above average for snowfall this season but far from where we were in the near record winter of 2007/2008 and last season’s high-snowfall winter. -ES

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Posted under cold blast

This post was written by qni_it on December 29, 2009

6 Comments so far

  1. tony December 29, 2009 10:54 PM

    Eric, will El Nino still be going strong by the end of january going into february or is it forecast to start weakening a little?

  2. WI Weather Buff December 30, 2009 12:23 AM

    Thanks Eric.

    Actually, there’s another VERY interesting page on the NOAA El Nino site — about the El Nino event of 1918-1919, and its relationship to the flu pandemic of the same years.

    Fascinating….

  3. Tom December 30, 2009 4:26 PM

    I is becoming more and more clear to me that none of our weather forecasting services have a clue as to how El Nino or Blocking patterns will affect our weather beyond a week or so. All this speculation is rather worthless. My guess is that since it has been cold and nasty much of this year, it will remain so this winter.

  4. tony December 30, 2009 5:16 PM

    Well tom, eric has posted in the blue moon topic and even mentioned it on the 10pm news that this cold weather is going to continue right through most of january. El nino is happening, but we have the NAO being negative.

  5. tom January 2, 2010 11:53 AM

    Well Tony if you look at the referenced article about the NOA you will see that it predicted a slow warming pattern starting around Christmas and leading into the new year. Do you see a warming pattern. I certainly don’t. I’m not blaming anyone. I am just saying I’m not buying into any of this beyond 7-10 days. Just don’t really think that anyone knows. Happy New Year……

  6. Manolo Blahnik December 25, 2011 7:27 PM

    Inspiring article, Thanks. Keep posting.6wG8YwWP84bQ12-26

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