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2:30pm Update – Rain will overspread the area this afternoon. Temperatures remain at or slightly above freezing as of 2pm. This rain will allow temperatures to rise slightly through evening. A Flood Watch remains in effect for Northern Illinois as 1-2″ of rain will fall on frozen ground. Additional ice accumulation is not likely as temperatures are expected to stay slightly above freezing tonight. Updated forecast discussion coming around 4pm this afternoon. -ES

12:00pm- Update:  As temps rise above freezing, the ice and snow will start to melt.  This added to the rainfall this afternoon and evening hours will lead to our Flood Watch that we all have until tomorrow morning.  For this afternoon expect rain showers and maybe a few rumbles of thunder.  Overnight is when we will get the bulk of our rain which could total around 1-2″ by tomorrow morning.  Friday will start with a wintry mix and then turn all to snow and the cold air wraps around the low.  Could see 1-3 inches of new snow by Saturday Afternoon. -CK

(9:54:39 AM) nwsbot: MKX: 9 Wnw Beloit [Rock Co, WI] trained spotter reports FREEZING RAIN of M0.20 INCH at 09:48 AM CST — spotter reports numerous tree branches and power lines down in the area…with most surfaces covered in a glaze up to about 1/4 inch thick.

(9:05:50 AM) nwsbot: DVN: 3 N Stockton Airport [Jo Daviess Co, IL] trained spotter reports FREEZING RAIN of M0.30 INCH at 09:01 AM CST — ice on most surfaces. roads fair with patchy ice. no power since 8 pm last night.

(8:44:13 AM) nwsbot: LOT: 4 Nw Rockford [Winnebago Co, IL] co-op observer reports ICE STORM at 08:42 AM CST — 0.2 of ice fell so far.

(8:21:53 AM) nwsbot: LOT: Rockford [Winnebago Co, IL] trained spotter reports ICE STORM at 07:49 AM CST — an additional 0.1 of icing since 1030 last night for a total of 0.3 of hard glazing on the northeast side of rockford. 2 to 3 inch diameter tree limbs coming down.

(7:59:57 AM) nwsbot: LOT: Rockford [Winnebago Co, IL] emergency mngr reports ICE STORM at 07:59 AM CST — 0.50 to 0.75 of an inch of ice across many parts of rockford. numerous power outages across the city.

8:ooam- Update:  Freezing Rain or a Rain/Sleet mix will continue for most of this morning hours as our temps hover just above or below freezing.  As we head into the afternoon hours our temps will warm above freezing change to whatever is falling… all into rain.  With these “warmer” temps the snow and ice that have already accumulated will start to melt and start to cause flooding problems in low lying areas and roadways.  We could see a total of 1-2″ of rain by tomorrow morning.  Tonight Santa will have to deal with heavy rainfall and temps in the mid 30s.  Tomorrow we start with a wintry mix to all snow by Friday afternoon.  Total snow accumulation by Saturday could be around 1-3″. -CK

(6:48:50 AM) nwsbot: LOT: Woodstock [Mchenry Co, IL] co-op observer reports ICE STORM at 06:45 AM CST — 0.25 ice reported.

5:30am- Update:

FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY. ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH...WITH THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS
ON UNTREATED AND ELEVATED SURFACES. 

BY NOON TODAY...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE
FREEZING. AS THIS TAKES PLACE...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION FROM
FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FROM THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS RAINFALL WILL COMBINE WITH RAPIDLY MELTING
SNOW AND ICE TO CREATE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RUNOFF...WHICH MAY
RESULT IN RISES ALONG AREA RIVERS...AS WELL FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

(4:04:35 AM) nwsbot: DVN continues Areal Flood Watch valid at Dec 24, 6:00 AM CST for Jackson [IA] and Carroll, Jo Daviess, Stephenson [IL] till Dec 25, 6:00 AM CST

(3:55:17 AM) nwsbot: LOT continues Areal Flood Watch valid at Dec 24, 12:00 PM CST for Boone, Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Ford, Grundy, Iroquois, Kane, Kankakee, Kendall, La Salle, Lake, Lee, Livingston, McHenry, Ogle, Will, Winnebago [IL] and Benton, Jasper, Lake, Newton, Porter [IN] till Dec 25, 6:00 AM CST

(3:53:38 AM) nwsbot: LOT extends time of Ice Storm Warning for Boone, DeKalb, DuPage, Kane, Kankakee, Kendall, Lake, Lee, McHenry, Ogle, Will, Winnebago [IL] and Jasper, Lake, Newton, Porter [IN] till 12:00 PM CST

3:45am Update:  WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE: Ice Storm Warning until 8am and Flood Watch until late Thursday Night.
STEPHENSON-CARROLL-JO DAVIESS: Winter Weather Advisory until 6am and Flood Watch until late Thursday Night.
Still seeing scattered Freezing Rain showers this morning… but what is happening is that the winds have picked up and trees and power lines that are encased in ice are starting to break.  So if you need to travel try and hold off on it until late morning when our temps become above freezing.  For this afternoon well have rain showers and maybe a few rumbles of thunder.  Highs will be in the mid 30s.  Overnight is when we’ll see most of the rain.  The rainfall will be moderate to heavy at times which could cause flooding due to the melting snow and rainfall. We could see between 1.5 and 2.5 inches of rain during this event. Christmas morning will start will a wintry mix and then changeover to snow as the day progresses. Temperatures will fall into the mid to upper 20s during the afternoon. Snowfall totals for Friday and Saturday could be around 1-3″.

2:00am Update: FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.   PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND YOU ALSO MIGHT HEAR SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER.  THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE TIME THAT YOU COULD EXPERIENCE HEAVY RAINFALL. FLOODING WILL BE AN ISSUE DUE TO THE  MELTING SNOW AND FROZEN GROUND…FLOODING OF RIVERS AND LOW LYING AREAS APPEARS LIKELY. COLDER AIR WILL THEN WRAP AROUND THE STORM CENTER ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE BACK TO LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS ON CHRISTMAS DAY…WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY AS THE LOW CENTER DRIFTS OFF ACROSS THE MIDWEST.

(11:13:50 PM) nwsbot: DVN: N Davis [Stephenson Co, IL] trained spotter reports FREEZING RAIN of E0.50 INCH at 10:30 PM CST — one half inch of ice on the ground and 1/4 to 3/8 inches of ice on tree branches. current temperature 32. total rainfall .37 inch.

(11:11:22 PM) nwsbot: LOT: 3 N De Kalb [Dekalb Co, IL] trained spotter reports FREEZING RAIN of E0.30 INCH at 10:50 PM CST — ice accumulation. power lines beginning to droop and tree limbs are sagging. treated roads are fine. temperature is 30 degrees.

(11:05:18 PM) nwsbot: LOT: Rockford [Winnebago Co, IL] trained spotter reports FREEZING RAIN of E0.20 INCH at 10:30 PM CST — ice accumulation glazing all surfaces on northeast side of town.

11:00pm Update – Rockford metro continues in an Ice Storm Warning. Freezing rain will continue so long as temps remain at or below 32°. We’ve been at 32° all evening long and it’s not looking good for us getting above that threshold. Please don’t travel unless it is an emergency. We are forecasting temperatures to rise above 32° during the late-morning hours. This will allow streets to become slushy, opposed to icy. In addition, flooding has already been reported in the area on roadways because the snowbanks are blocking stormdrains. We will continue our coverage through the overnight. -ES

(10:47:42 PM) nwsbot: LOT: Dixon [Lee Co, IL] broadcast media reports FREEZING RAIN of E0.25 INCH at 10:22 PM CST — ice accumulation. spotter report relayed by wrex tv

(10:49:24 PM) nwsbot: LOT: Oregon [Ogle Co, IL] trained spotter reports FREEZING RAIN of M0.25 INCH at 10:22 PM CST — ice accumulation. relayed by wrex tv.

(10:42:32 PM) nwsbot: MKX: East Troy [Walworth Co, WI] broadcast media reports SNOW of M3.0 INCH at 10:24 PM CST — from fox6…observer reported sleet began about 10 pm cst

(10:05:38 PM)
nwsbot: DVN: Stockton [Jo Daviess Co, IL] co-op observer reports FREEZING RAIN of M0.50 INCH at 10:04 PM CST — one half inch of ice measured on tree branches. total precipitation so 0.40. current temperature 32.

(9:54:34 PM)
nwsbot: LOT: Portage [Porter Co, IN] trained spotter reports FREEZING RAIN of E0.30 INCH at 09:30 PM CST — est 1/4 to 1/3 inch of ice accumulation. all surfaces ice covered. trees hanging low and power flickering. small limbs beginning to fall

(9:46:54 PM)
nwsbot: DVN: Ridott [Stephenson Co, IL] trained spotter reports FREEZING RAIN of M0.19 INCH at 09:45 PM CST — ice accumulation on elevated surfaces. roads were ice covered as well.

(9:41:13 PM) nwsbot: DVN: 5 Sse Council Hill [Jo Daviess Co, IL] trained spotter reports FREEZING RAIN of M0.38 INCH at 09:38 PM CST — 3/8 inches of ice measured on tree branches.

(9:07:51 PM)
nwsbot: LOT: Franklin Grove [Lee Co, IL] broadcast media reports FREEZING RAIN of E0.25 INCH at 09:00 PM CST — 1/4 inch ice accumulation.still raining with an air temperature of 32 degrees.

Do not travel in Northern Illinois unless it is an absolute emergency. Ice accumulations of 1/2 inch are expected. This will cause power outages and dangerous travel. -ES

(8:46:21 PM) nwsbot: LOT issues Ice Storm Warning for Boone, DeKalb, DuPage, Kane, Kankakee, Kendall, Lake, Lee, McHenry, Ogle, Will, Winnebago [IL] and Jasper, Lake, Newton, Porter [IN] till Dec 24, 8:00 AM CST

Storm Prediction Center has issued a special discussion for our area http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2275.html

4:18pm – Spotter relayed a report into WITI-TV of heavy snow in Genoa City, WI. Sleet/snow mix at Burlington, WI.

(4:03:20 PM)
nwsbot: LOT: 1 N Winnebago [Winnebago Co, IL] broadcast media reports FREEZING RAIN of M0.10 INCH at 03:44 PM CST — ice accumulation on top of 0.25 sleet accumulaion. sleet has changed over to freezing rain.

4:00pm – Winter Storm Warning in effect for Green and Rock Co. Winter Weather Advisories remain in place across the rest of the coverage area. Freezing rain will continue overnight with 1/2 inch of ice accumulation likely. This will cause an icy glaze on untreated surfaces. Travel on secondary/rural roads may become impassable through the overnight as this wintry precipitation continues.

Temperatures will be steady in the 30-32 degree range overnight. By midday Thursday, temperatures are expected to rise above freezing. Luckily, the heaviest rain is expected as this happens, possibly preventing a full-on ice storm. Thunder is possible along with flooding. Between 1.5 and 2.5 inches of rain/freezing rain will fall during this event.

An additional round of freezing rain/ice accumulation is possible Thursday night as temperatures dip to 31 degrees. Accumulations up to 1/2 inch will be possible.

Christmas will see morning freezing rain with a changeover to snow as the day progresses. Temperatures will fall into the middle 20s during the afternoon.

3:00pm – Freezing rain being reported in the Beloit area. Numerous reports of temporary power outages around the metro, including CherryVale Mall.

1050am:

A MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE LESS THAN ONE INCH. ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE UP TO ONE
QUARTER INCH. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
WILL RESULT IN SLIPPERY ROADWAYS AND CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES.
BE PREPARED FOR HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS AND USE CAUTION
WHILE TRAVELING.

1030am: Freezing Rain reported in Franklin Grove by local viewer.

Peotone [Will Co, IL] trained spotter reports FREEZING RAIN of U0.00 INCH at 09:38 AM CST — light freezing rain and drizzle falling. side walks are a little slick.

8:00am-
A DEVELOPING WINTER STORM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE

NORTH TO IOWA BY FRIDAY MORNING. AFTER A PERIOD OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WARM
MOIST AIR WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...
* FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...INCLUDING
  THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN ILLINOIS...BOONE...COOK...DE KALB...
  DUPAGE...FORD...GRUNDY...IROQUOIS...KANE...KANKAKEE...
  KENDALL...LA SALLE...LAKE IL...LEE...LIVINGSTON...MCHENRY...
  OGLE...WILL AND WINNEBAGO. IN INDIANA...BENTON...JASPER...LAKE
  IN...NEWTON AND PORTER.
* FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
* HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
  NORTHWEST INDIANA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH
  EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
  INCHES WILL BE COMMON. SOME AREAS MAY RECEIVE AS MUCH AS 3
  INCHES BY FRIDAY MORNING.
* THE DEPTH OF THE CURRENT SNOW PACK RANGES FROM 5 TO 8 INCHES
  OVER NORTHWEST ILLINOIS TO 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS NORTHWEST
  INDIANA. AS THIS SNOW MELTS...COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED HEAVY
  RAIN...AND FROZEN GROUND CONDITIONS...RAPID RUNOFF AND RISES ON
  AREA RIVERS ARE EXPECTED. SOME RIVERS MAY REACH OR EXCEED FLOOD
  STAGE. FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS WILL ALSO BE
  POSSIBLE.
4:15am-
...A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA TODAY...

.A DEVELOPING WINTER STORM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE
NORTH TO IOWA BY FRIDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN TRANSITION
TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE IL-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-JO DAVIESS-CARROLL-STEPHENSON
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCKFORD...BELVIDERE...WOODSTOCK...
WAUKEGAN...OREGON...DIXON...DEKALB...AURORA

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON CST
THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...
WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY. THE
WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING...A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW IS EXPECTED
  TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
  AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING THURSDAY MORNING...THE
  PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN ONE INCH.
  ICE ACCUMULATION OF UP TO ONE QUARTER INCH.

* HAZARDS...ACCUMULATION OF ICE.

* IMPACTS...GLAZING OF ROADWAYS...PARKING LOTS AND SIDEWALKS. THIS
  WILL MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

4:00am- We will start off this Wednesday with light Snow showers with some areas receiving an additional 2-4 inches. As the day moves on, sleet will mix in and a slowly change over to freezing rain. Today’s high will stay around 32 degrees. Tonight we could see heavy showers of Freezing Rain. Temps look to stay right around 32 degrees which means if we rise a degree or two, no accumulation will occur. However with any temperature at or below 32 degrees, an ice accumulation will occur. There is a potential to get up to 1/2 inch of ice accumulation. Tomorrow we’ll start off this some Freezing drizzle as temps stay at 32 degrees.  Through out the day our temps will rise above freezing and turn whatever precipitation we have change into rain showers with a possible rumble of thunder. Tomorrow’s high will be around 35 degrees.

9:30pm – New computer models coming in and show very little change (which is good). Hydro problems are starting to become a concern to me as I ask you this question: “When was the last time you saw a storm drain on a side street in town?” Many of these are covered in feet of snow due to the plows. We have the potential of seeing 1-2 inches of rainfall on Christmas Eve which could cause some urban and small street flooding. In addition, rivers may see quick rises Thursday into Christmas. Bottom line: Not much snow will fall until Christmas afternoon. The worst part of this system will be freezing rain potential Wednesday evening through Thursday morning. -ES

6:00pm – Light snow continues here in Winnebago County, however looking at the individual flakes reveals their “grainy” nature. This is indicative of a warming atmosphere aloft. Freezing drizzle is likely for Northern Illinois as we head through the overnight. Accumulations of ice aren’t likely, however some secondary roads and sidewalks will get slick. For those of you in Southern Wisconsin, an inch or two of snow is possible tonight through midday Wednesday when we all switch to freezing rain. -ES

4:05pm – Winter Weather Advisory issued for Northern Illinois, including Rockford, Freeport, Oregon, Rochelle, DeKalb, and Belvidere. Awaiting issuance from Milwaukee NWS office. -ES

4:00pm Forecast Discussion – Tonight: Light snow/patchy freezing drizzle will continue off and on. Another inch of snow is possible with low temperatures around 30.

Wednesday: Snow is likely during the morning and early afternoon with some areas receiving an additional inch or two. A few hours of freezing drizzle is possible. As the day wears on, precipitation will become heavier and sleet will mix in. A gradual changeover to freezing rain is likely during the late-afternoon. Afternoon temperatures are expected to remain around 32.

Wednesday Night: Heavy Freezing Rain or Rain is likely. Temperatures are expected to remain right around 32 degrees which means if we rise a degree or two, no accumulation will occur. However with any temperature at or below 32 degrees, an ice accumulation will occur. There is a potential to receive up to 1/2 inch of ice accumulation with the latter scenario.

Thursday: Temperatures will rise above 32 degrees during the morning hours ending our freezing rain/icing threat. Rain will continue to fall, with embedded thunder. Temperatures will to around 36 degrees in the afternoon.

Thursday Night: Rain, heavy at times. Temperatures steady around 35 degrees.

Friday: Rain will gradually change to snow with minor accumulations possible. Temperatures will fall into the middle 20s by evening. Any areas that have standing water will freeze, making for some additional headaches.

Extended: Snow flurries will be possible Saturday and Sunday as this system dies out over the region. An additional inch is possible Saturday before drier air moves into the area. Temperatures will remain chilly with afternoon temperatures in the 20s and upper single digits during the overnights.

2:00 pm – Snowfall totals from last night/today’s “mini-storm.” Thanks to everyone who reported today! -ES

(1:33:01 PM) nwsbot: LOT: Rockford [Winnebago Co, IL] broadcast media reports SNOW of M3.8 INCH at 01:25 PM CST —

(1:20:10 PM) nwsbot: MKX: 9 Wnw Beloit [Rock Co, WI] public reports SNOW of M2.8 INCH at 01:00 PM CST — measurement is since snow began about 18 hours ago. snow depth at time of observation was 8 inches.

(12/22/2009 12:26:11 PM)
nwsbot: DVN: Ridott [Stephenson Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M4.8 INCH at 12:19 PM CST — still light snow falling at time of report.

(12/22/2009 12:20:43 PM) nwsbot: LOT: Rockford Airport [Winnebago Co, IL] official nws obs reports SNOW of M3.6 INCH at 12:00 PM CST — storm total. 1.4 inches in last 6 hours.

(12/22/2009 10:58:15 AM) nwsbot: DVN: Sse Shannon [Carroll Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M4.0 INCH at 10:50 AM CST — storm total. currently a few flurries.

(12/22/2009 10:08:50 AM) nwsbot: DVN: Freeport [Stephenson Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M4.0 INCH at 10:05 AM CST — snow total from last night and this morning.

(12/22/2009 9:45:50 AM) nwsbot: DVN: Stockton [Jo Daviess Co, IL] co-op observer reports SNOW of M3.6 INCH at 09:43 AM CST — 8 inch snow depth.

(12/22/2009 9:42:15 AM) nwsbot: DVN: Ssw Stockton [Jo Daviess Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M3.5 INCH at 09:00 AM CST — storm total. currently not snowing.

(12/22/2009 8:30:33 AM) nwsbot: DVN: 5 Sse Council Hill [Jo Daviess Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M3.5 INCH at 08:28 AM CST — overnight total.

(12/22/2009 9:10:57 AM) nwsbot: DVN: 5 Ne Mount Carroll [Carroll Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M5.4 INCH at 09:09 AM CST — overnight total.

2:00pm – Snow may end as a period of freezing drizzle within the next 2-3 hours. This has caused numerous accidents in Eastern Iowa. Please excercise caution if you are traveling, especially on snow-covered and untreated roadways. -ES

1:22pm – We just concluded a conference call with the National Weather Service in Chicago concerning upcoming winter storm. Jim Allsopp, Warning Coordination Meteorologist with the National Weather Service says “a Winter Storm Watch has been issued for Northern Illinois in anticipation of a significant accumulation of freezing rain.” Light precipitation will begin falling after midnight tonight in the form of freezing rain, light snow, or freezing drizzle. Precipitation will increase during the day on Wednesday in the form of freezing rain. Allsopp says that accumulations pf 1/4 to 1/2 inch are likely in the Rockford area. Winds of 20-30mph could cause some power outages. However Allsopp says this isn’t likely to be a major ice storm. He says “It’s worse when you have an ice accumulation followed by bitter cold wind. This event will be followed by warming temperatures which has the potential to melt the ice before there are major problems.” He also adds that the major roadways that are treated will be passable, however trees, power lines, sidewalks, and side streets will be treacherous.

We will be issuing an updated forecast discussion and graphical analysis around 4pm today. In addition, a live web chat is planned beginning at 5pm in order to answer anyone’s questions. -ES

12:00pm –  A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for the entire area for Wednesday. Light snow will begin after midnight with a transition to freezing rain during the morning hours. Up to 1/2 inch of ice accumulation is possible by evening as a steady rain falls onto a sub-freezing surface. Temperatures will gradually rise above 32° late Wednesday night bringing an end to the treacherous conditions as rain will fall onto a non-freezing surface into Christmas Eve.

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Posted under weather

This post was written by qni_it on December 21, 2009

The Weather Outside Looks Frightful!

A winter storm is developing over the southwestern U.S. and then move slowly northeast into the Upper Mid West by Christmas Day.  This storm system will bring a wintry mix of snow, sleet, rain and freezing rain to the region.  The track of this storm remains uncertain, and therefore precipitation type and amounts are hard to determine at this time.  Some significant snow and ice accumulations are possible over the North Central and perhaps far Northern Illinois.  Cold air will wrap around the back side of the low by Friday afternoon/evening changing to whatever is falling into to snow.  As of now… we will have a rain/snow mix on Wednesday, Thursday will be a bit of everything (Snow, Rain, Sleet, Freezing Rain), and Friday will start off a rain/snow and then change to all snow.

Those with holiday travel plans are urged to stay tuned for the latest information on this winter storm on WREX TV, and on our WREX weather blog.

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Posted under weather

This post was written by qni_it on December 21, 2009

Midweek storm.

special18:00pm Update –  I just ran our in house model to Christmas Eve night with the 32 degree line included. It appears that with this model, the line will once again be dancing over the stateline through much of the event before becoming more horizontal, signaling cold air finally filling in. Right now, The general thinking is snow showers picking up during the day on Wednesday, a mix late Wednesday night through Thursday with the Warm Air Advecting ahead of the low, then a change to snow before Christmas day.

3:45pm update –  Looking at the latest two runs of the GFS model, certainty of more snow and less ice comes into the picture. Even with this increase in snowfall potential, the various models have been wavering significantly the past couple days and will likely need a bit more time before we see more convergence on timing, amount, and precip type. Notice that the models (NAM and last 2 runs of the GFS) have now converged nicely on producing snow late in the day Tuesday and into Wednesday before the main event sets up Christmas Eve and Christmas day.

As of the latest runs, the European model is favoring a more western track, bringing the low slightly west of the Rockford area. This would favor mixed precip and icing potential especially Wednesday evening and into Christmas eve before a change to snow. The GFS is promoting a track over Chicago and northwest Indiana which would prime the Stateline for more snow.

picture11

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Posted under snow

This post was written by qni_it on December 20, 2009

Sunday clipper to dump quick inch or two

snowfall A weekend clipper system has its sights set on the area. The low, currently in southern Canada, will drop into the area and drop a quick inch or two of the white stuff during the day on Sunday. Those to the southwest of the city will see the most accumulation as the low will track near the tri-state area.

Looking toward the end of the week, our Christmas snowstorm is still on track. As Eric posted earlier, with the new model runs, there is still much uncertainty as to the track of the storm, which could mean the difference between all snow, and mixed precipitation. Make sure you stay tuned to Rockford’s only weather blog for the latest updates on the winter storm.

-AB

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Posted under weather

This post was written by qni_it on December 19, 2009

Morning data continues to support Christmas storm

We’re still on track for a possible winter storm in the days leading up to Christmas. Morning runs of the GFS and European models indicate a track which is reminiscent of last week’s snow event. The European model takes the low’s track from East Texas to Chicago while deepening it. It brings overrunning snow to the area Wednesday with a rain/sleet/freezing rain mix for Thursday before a changeover back to snow Friday. The GFS holds off on the overrunning snow until Thursday (with the possibility of some mixing, although it shows a colder solution). Christmas Eve night into Christmas day would be the height of the storm with many inches of snow possible for the Rockford area. Again, this looks a lot like last week’s storm which would bring the rain/snow line very close to the Rockford area. Remember, last week we had 13 inches of snow in NW Winnebago County with no accumulation in the city of Chicago. A lot will be watched in the coming days. Meteorologist Aaron Brackett will be in shortly and will post an update with a fresh forecast around 4:30pm. -ES

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Posted under snow

This post was written by qni_it on December 19, 2009

Christmas 2009 Storm

10:15pm update – New models coming in and indicate a 1-3 inch snow possible now for Sunday afternoon/evening. The evening GFS is taking the Christmas storm WAY south. I’m not buying the shift so far to the south however. I know you’re trying to make plans for the holiday and don’t want to hear this but we’ll know more through the weekend.

yiikes

Could Texas have a colder Christmas than Minnesota? It’s possible if you buy the European forecast (left).

As mentioned in on the 5pm news, we’re monitoring a potential storm system for the days leading up to Christmas. Timing on this (based on computer guidance) is pretty uniform with the beginning of the wintry mess here sometime Tuesday evening with light snow. Snow will increase Wednesday and Thursday before tapering off during the day on Christmas itself. The problem is the track and amount of warm air this system will have to work with. It would actually be better for us if the atmosphere was colder as cold air can’t support as much available water vapor as warmer air. In addition, warm air may work in aloft supporting rain (which may fall onto a sub-freezing surface, ala ice storm). The graphic above is the European computer model’s solution for Friday morning. It shows an extremely dynamic system with warm air surging into Minnesota while the cold air dives into Texas. There certainly won’t be a short supply of Gulf moisture with this one!

If we stay cold enough for all snow, I would anticipate Winter Storm headlines from our NWS offices as soon as Sunday night and Monday. Please check back with us here on the blog. Bookmark us or set us as your homepage for the latest info -ES

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Posted under snow

This post was written by qni_it on December 18, 2009

Christmas Eve snow… looks like a go.

gfs_slp_162m

So for the past couple of days we have talked about the potential of a snow storm working its way here just in time for everyone to head out to there holiday celebration.   So here is an update as of Friday Morning.  Our GFS model is still showing a very well organized, moisture built, low pressure system that is hooking its way here in full swing by Christmas Eve (Next Thursday).  As of now the placement of the low on Thursday is almost on top of us.   This means we’ll have flurries starting Tuesday then becoming a moderate steady snowfall by Thursday.  We’ll definitely keep everyone up to date on new information as this next snow maker heads our way.

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Posted under weather

This post was written by qni_it on December 18, 2009

Still eyeballing potential winter storm for Christmas

snowyxmasA few days ago we were first alerted by our friendly GFS model that quite a bit of energy would be entering the center of the continent by Wednesday of next week. The GFS and European model are pretty consistent in this feature. However, the placement has yet to be ironed out. Potential placements of low pressure by Thursday morning are from near St. Louis to western Louisiana. Only one of these solutions would bring us a winter storm, the track that’s furthest north. As it looks right now the best chance of a high-impact storm would be from Kansas into Central Illinois. The evening GFS model is hinting at a multi-day storm with light snow beginning Tuesday and ramping up by early Thursday. We’ll keep watching this as we head into the weekend. -ES

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Posted under snow

This post was written by qni_it on December 17, 2009

Copenhagen climate summit continues

On the Ground in Copenhagen
A Reporter’s Perspective

by Andrew Freedman

It’s yet another busy and confusing day here at COP15. Reporters arrived in the media center this morning to find new security procedures in place that were never discussed with the more than 3,000 reporters here from around the world. Reporters would be allowed into the media center, we were told, but in order to go out of the room to anywhere else in the Bella Center, they would need to go through a second layer of metal detector/x-ray security checks, and would have to be escorted. Escorts were going to be run every 20 minutes.

Upon hearing about these measures, one European reporter protested loudly “How are we supposed to do our jobs?”

That has been the same question asked by every nongovernmental organization (NGO) here during the past two weeks, since the United Nations has steadily reduced the number of NGO representatives allowed into the building to a tiny fraction of those who had registered. Fortunately for the media, the UN decided that journalists are “more important than the NGOs,” arguably not a wise decision.

Regardless, soon after reporters had cued up in a long line to attend the first press conference of the day (there was to be a 9:20 “escort” to the briefing room), the x-ray machines and metal detectors were mysteriously shunted aside. When asked what happened, a Danish security guard told me “the UN decided it [the additional restrictions] wasn’t necessary.”

Clearly the UN realized how huge a PR disaster it would be if they locked a few thousand reporters into a room, while relatively open negotiations carried on down the hallway. That could be the end of all talk of a “transparent process.” Journalists and “observers” all along have endured 10-hour lines and having to learn or re-learn French when translation headsets suddenly stop working.

Right now, reporters are back to business as usual here: prowling the hallways to look for delegates, grab the latest copies of draft texts, and attend the blizzard of news conferences that fill up the day.

Speaking of which, I gotta run to the U.S. briefing.

Andrew Freedman is an independent science writer and blogger.

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Posted under climate/climate change

This post was written by qni_it on December 17, 2009

Ice jam reported between Byron and Oregon

floodedIf you are near the area or are traveling down Highway 2, please pass along any photos or eyewitness reports to weather@wrex.com. Also watch for rapidly rising water in that area!

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR THE ROCK RIVER...

  ROCK RIVER AT BYRON AFFECTING OGLE COUNTY 

.AN ICE JAM WAS REPORTED BETWEEN BYRON AND OREGON. ICE JAMS CAN RESULT IN
RAPID FLUCTUATIONS IN WATER LEVELS WITH LITTLE OR NO WARNING. RESIDENTS
IN LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE ROCK RIVER SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RAPID CHANGES
IN WATER LEVELS AS ICE BREAKS AND MOVES DOWNSTREAM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...IF YOU ENCOUNTER A FLOODED ROADWAY...TURN AROUND AND
FIND AN ALTERNATE ROUTE.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO.
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Posted under flooding

This post was written by qni_it on December 17, 2009