Severe weather should stay south of us this weekend

index1index2While there will be some thunderstorms with heavy downpours, it appears that the severe weather threat will remain very small this weekend.

A slug of moisture with heavy thunderstorms is expected to move into the Rockford area around 10pm this evening and continue through much of the night. Up to an inch of rainfall is possible with this batch as the Gulf of Mexico is open for business! Our FutureTrack Severe Index is showing some moderate thunderstorms over parts of Central Illinois with this. Once the storms move north, they will lose a lot of their oomph. Still, a few storms could give us some pea to marble sized hail.

On Saturday, our Severe Index is showing the potential for some rougher thunderstorms during the late-morning hours. This will come as a front lifts into the region from the south. It remains to be seen whether we will get much out of this because 10am is usually the least-likely time of the day for severe weather.

index3Once we head into the afternoon (even though the Storm Prediction Center has us in a slight risk of severe), our index values fall off of the charts dramatically. I agree with our analysis because 50,000 foot-tall thunderstorms will then be going on in the Lower Mississippi River Valley and will prevent a lot of moisture transport into our region. Still, we’ll watch things closely and update you as we go through the night and into Saturday. -ES

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Posted under severe weather, weather

This post was written by qni_it on April 23, 2010

3 Comments so far

  1. Justin April 23, 2010 6:26 PM

    What factors are included in the futuretrack severe index? Is it just cape or shear or are there several different factors taken into account?

  2. Eric Sorensen - WREX April 23, 2010 6:31 PM

    Justin: Under the umbrella of the index are three variables (lifted index, CAPE, and supercell index). We have the ability to mesh them all together or show one at a time. In this case, I just had CAPE turned on to show the lack thereof when the low is over us tomorrow. Unless we can break into 2-4 hours of midday sunshine (to increase the potential energey), there won’t be much to work with. -ES

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