Similar weather pattern, very different result

110Most of us have some recollection of where we were one week ago. Maybe we were at work and the power flickered, or in the car and the sirens sounded. Today marks one week since a powerful tornado ripped through eastern Winnebago and northern Boone counties and as we look back at our atmosphere that day, there are actually some similarities to things today, only without the severe risk.

As an area of low pressure passed essentially over the Stateline last week, an attendant warm front was draped right near the border. Warm air to the south met cooler air to the north, and as storms fired up last week, they rode along that warm frontal boundary and began to rotate. Our surface map looks similar today but we are missing a few key ingredients for severe weather.

First, and most importantly of all, the front that will pass through our area is occluded, which means that the cold front “caught up” to the warm front. This will still give us a chance of a few rumbles this afternoon, but should keep things well below severe limits. Also, last week we were nearly 70 degrees at the surface with dew points nearly 60. Today, we will be lucky to get much above the lower 50’s. Finally, there isn’t enough vorticity or turning in the atmpsphere to get things moving.

Regardless, it is a bit odd that we will see an above average Monday followed by below average temperatures tomorrow just as we did one week ago.

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Posted under weather

This post was written by qni_it on November 29, 2010

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