Evening model/radar analysis


9:55pm – The new GFS is now in. While there may be a slight shift of 30 miles east, I don’t believe this is in anyway going to affect our Rockford metro forecast of 12″. Higher amounts will again exist southeast of the metro where DeKalb to Chicago could receive 16-22″. -ES

noneinalaska9:45pm – Here’s a look at the winter warnings. 37 states are effected. Dark red means Winter Storm Warning, bright red shows Blizzard Warning. The light blue shading is a Winter Weather Advisory. The darker blue is a Winter Storm Watch. What’s interesting is there are NO advisories in the state of Alaska right now. Snow will fall heavily as far south as the Hill Country of Texas, up to the Midwest where we are. Again, the heavy, crippling snow will occur here tomorrow night. -ES


9:40pm – Here’s a look at the raw output from our entire suite of computer models showing accumulated snowfall. The brightest red line is the newest NAM model output from the most recent model run (see below). -ES

9:30pm – Quick analysis of the radar trends right now shows a batch of heavy snow across DeKalb County. This is lifting northeast toward the Elgin, Algonquin area. Snow continues to develop southwest of Rockford which was noted on Milwaukee NWS’s in-house model this evening. 2-4 inches of snow should be expected through the morning hours of Tuesday. Strong wind out of the east-northeast will cause drifting in open areas. (Winnebago Road between US20 and the station is nearly impassable at 9pm.) -ES

newnam9:15pm – The NAM model is now in completely and continues the storm on its projected path. Looking at this, I feel there’s no need to change anything at this point. (See below.) The GFS model will be in enough to know if any changes will be needed by 9:45pm. -ES


Posted under winter storm

This post was written by qni_it on January 31, 2011

3 Comments so far

  1. jason January 31, 2011 9:57 PM

    so now its the heavy snow is more to the east where does it put forreston in snowfall totals is it still 12″?

  2. Aaron Funfsinn January 31, 2011 9:58 PM
  3. Al Marinaro January 31, 2011 11:39 PM

    I was just reading the nam had initialized with the SLP 6mb higher then what was actually going on. Stronger Storm –> Shift to the NW possible again which would mean higher snowfall totals. Hmm, We’ll see, have fun in the lab guys.

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