Hazy sunshine is making an appearance through the area as satellite trends show a general thinning of the cloud deck. If sunshine continues, we will be watching the temperature very closely for an enhanced risk of some afternoon thunderstorms becoming strong to severe. My best timing estimate brings storms through the area from 3pm to 7pm.

-Aaron

Share

Posted under weather

This post was written by qni_it on June 27, 2011

Rain comes to an end while winds ramp up

An interesting phenomenon known as a Wake Low has affected the area this morning. As rain showers left over from early morning storms in eastern Iowa continue to fizzle out, winds behind the precipitation are ramping up. As rain cooled air rushes toward the ground, a small area of high pressure has developed just as the showers end. Behind that high, a faint low trails the system. As we look between this miniature high and low, southerly winds have ramped up.

Already in eastern Iowa, winds have been gusty but I don’t expect more than 25-35 mph gusts through much of north central Illinois and southern Wisconsin as the wave continues to weaken. Here are some early morning gusts reported to the NWS:

DVN: 1 Sse Cedar Rapids [Linn Co, IA] trained spotter reports NON-TSTM WND GST of E60 MPH at 02:20 AM CDT —

 

DVN: Davenport [Scott Co, IA] asos reports NON-TSTM WND GST of M49.00 MPH at 11:44 PM CDT —

 

DVN: 1 Sse Cedar Rapids [Linn Co, IA] trained spotter reports NON-TSTM WND GST of E60.00 MPH at 02:20 AM CDT —

 

Share

Posted under Wind

This post was written by qni_it on June 27, 2011

Thunderstorms likely by morning

A complex of severe thunderstorms moving into Eastern Iowa will continue moving east. For that reason a new Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for all of Eastern Iowa through 4am. I expect these storms to cross the Mississippi around 2am and be in the Rockford metro around 4am. They should be in a weakening phase as they head into Northern Illinois late tonight. However, a few could produce gusty wind exceeding severe limits along with some pea to marble sized hail. Meteorologist Aaron Brackett will be tracking these during the pre-dawn hours and with live doppler on 13News Today from 5-7am. -ES

Share

Posted under severe weather

This post was written by qni_it on June 26, 2011

Hottest weather of 2011?

While temperatures the last few days have been anything but hot, we may see a huge change to the forecast next week. As a large pattern shift occurs, southerly flow will transport air from the southern states where a dome of steamy temperatures will brew through the first half of the work week. The National Weather Service’s GFS model has been putting out 26-27 degree 850mb (3,000ft) temperatures which would bring a good chance of mid to upper 90s near the ground. The European model is also aligning quite well with the GFS in recent runs.

Friday’s record high temperature is 101 degrees set in 1931

 

-Aaron

Share

Posted under heat wave

This post was written by qni_it on June 25, 2011

Will it or won’t it rain Saturday night?

That is the question! Our FutureTrack computer model is developing an MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) in western Iowa on Saturday afternoon, moving it into Northern Illinois late Saturday night.

Other models keep this to the south and move it toward Peoria. Will throw in an isolated storm because of the model discrepancy however if the MCS is progressive like our model indicates, it would yield a dry Sunday. -ES

Share

Posted under weather, weather geek

This post was written by qni_it on June 24, 2011

Spring of 2011: an average season?

Everywhere I turn, it seems like people have the same general viewpoint of the weather over the past couple of months….cold and rainy. As we head towards summer, we anxiously look forward to more sunshine and warmer temperatures. Social networking sites with their abundant “where is summer?” statuses, blogs, and simple conversations have all led to the conclusion that the weather we experienced during the spring of 2011 was an overall let down. While the weather might have felt sub-par, was it really that different from an average spring here in Rockford?

The answer is yes. As a whole, temperatures were below average (with a median temperature of 48.6 degrees) while precipitation values were above average. This spring we saw a total of 39 days that exceeded the normal seasonal temperature, 1 day that hit the average exactly, and 53 days that remained below average. Precipitation amounts show about a 1″ departure from typical values as 10.75″ fell here in Rockford, compared with 9.72″ during the average spring.

-Alyssa

Share

Posted under 13 Climate Authority

This post was written by qni_it on June 24, 2011

Heat wave coming just in time for July 4th?

It’s hard to believe that the Fourth of July weekend will be upon us in about a week! Confidence is building that we may be sweltering by then. A large upper-level ridge of high pressure is set to develop in the central United States. Here’s a look at the 10 Day Trend. Unfortunately, these types of ridges usually last about 3-4 days which means it’ll be breaking down by the holiday weekend. For that reason we’ve highlighted some shower and thunderstorm chances.

There is one wild card that may come into play. Some of our models are developing a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico by early next week. Should this system come north into Northeast Texas, it would cause the ridge to become more dominant here…reducing chances for rain. So, nothing is a done-deal at this point. -ES

Share

Posted under heat wave

This post was written by qni_it on June 23, 2011

After a chilly few days, serious heat awaits next week

Temperatures have been chilly for the past two days…and will be below average for another two as low pressure exits the Upper Midwest. Models are showing a front that will affect the region Sunday into Monday with scattered thunderstorms. After that, a large ridge of high pressure will build into the Central U.S. By Thursday and Friday of next week, temperatures could surge 10-15 degrees above normal across much of the Plains states. Temperatures here will surge into the lower 90s for Wednesday and Thursday of next week. It appears the ridge will break down just in time for the holiday weekend (July 2 and 3) and could bring some thunderstorms. Of course, this is way out there…but it does give us an idea of the overall pattern.

Interestingly, the type of heat displayed on our models for the Central Plains would yield 100° temperatures in Iowa, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Kansas. However with agricultural crops producing humidity, this will likely be offset by the moisture. It still looks quite muggy. Good news for those who have been disappointed the past few days. -ES

Share

Posted under heat wave, weather

This post was written by qni_it on June 23, 2011

Earthquake rocks Japan, prompts tsunami warnings

A magnitude 6.7 earthquake struck northern Japan yesterday at about 4:50 Rockford time. As fears linger from the devastating quake and tsunami in March. According to the Associated Press, as of this morning, no injuries have been reported but some structural damage has been found through the northeast coast. A Tsunami Warning was issued for about an hour after the event, but was later canceled as no waves made it to shore. This earthquake likely occurred along the same fault as the March disaster as almost daily aftershocks have still been felt by residents.

-Aaron

Share

Posted under earthquake/tsunami

This post was written by qni_it on June 23, 2011

Coolest June 23rd Ever?

Our projected high temperature for Thursday is around 65°. Looking back through the record books shows only a few times we’ve been that cool on June 23rd. The record cool high temperature stands at 64° and is an old one…set back in 1906!

Share

Posted under record weather

This post was written by qni_it on June 22, 2011