Another round of heavy rain?

Here is the latest run of the Weather Service’s WRF model which would verify at 4pm this afternoon. Notice the swath of heavy rain directly over the Stateline area. If this verifies, 2-5″ of additional accumulation could plague areas that have already seen record flooding since early last evening. A Flash Flood Watch continues to be in effect through 7:00am tomorrow morning for the potential of additional rainfall concerns.

If you have damage or flooding pictures, please send them to weather@wrex.com

-Aaron

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Posted under flooding

This post was written by qni_it on July 28, 2011

Severe Weather Information

We will be updating this page frequently with updates and warnings. Push refresh for the most up-to-date information. Send all reports and photos to weather@wrex.com

WATCH/WARNING ROUNDUP

 

Areal Flood Warning – Stephenson, JoDaviess Counties until 4:00pm today

Flash Flood Watch –  all of  northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin until 7:00am tomorrow

 

(7:45:28 AM) nwsbot: DVN: Elizabeth [Jo Daviess Co, IL] co-op observer reports HEAVY RAIN of M9.52 INCH at 06:30 AM CDT — 24 hour total.

(5:54:05 AM) nwsbot: DVN: Lena [Stephenson Co, IL] trained spotter reports HEAVY RAIN of M4.85 INCH at 05:50 AM CDT — from 8pm 7/27 to 545am 7/28

(5:21:45 AM) nwsbot: DVN: Ese Elizabeth [Jo Daviess Co, IL] trained spotter reports HEAVY RAIN of M9.35 INCH at 05:17 AM CDT — rainfall since 6 pm july 27 – 15.97 inches of rainfall since last thursday – july 21

(7/28/2011 2:18:19 AM) nwsbot: DVN: 5 E Galena [Jo Daviess Co, IL] trained spotter reports HEAVY RAIN of M9.53 INCH at 02:16 AM CDT — rain is now light.
(7/28/2011 2:20:03 AM) nwsbot: DVN: Lena [Stephenson Co, IL] law enforcement reports FLASH FLOOD at 01:45 AM CDT — 3 rural roads closed due to high water.

(10:50:31 PM) nwsbot: LOT: Loves Park [Winnebago Co, IL] broadcast media reports TSTM WND DMG at 09:19 PM CDT — boat tied to dock in rock river lifted out of water and landed in nearby tree. several windows blown out in same area near arlington street. from wrex tv. time estimated from radar.

(10:31:36 PM) nwsbot: DVN: Freeport [Stephenson Co, IL] trained spotter reports HEAVY RAIN of M2.50 INCH at 10:05 PM CDT — rainfall since 8 pm…still raining.
(10:31:36 PM) nwsbot: DVN: Freeport [Stephenson Co, IL] trained spotter reports FLASH FLOOD at 10:05 PM CDT — 6 inches flowing water across s. west avenue and mosley street near read park in town.

(10:08:42 PM) nwsbot: LOT: 4 W Rockford [Winnebago Co, IL] trained spotter reports TSTM WND DMG at 09:15 PM CDT — large tree down blocking southbound meridian road just north of us 20.

(10:06:55 PM) nwsbot: DVN: 5 Sse Council Hill [Jo Daviess Co, IL] trained spotter reports HEAVY RAIN of M5.72 INCH at 10:05 PM CDT — storm total so far…still raining.

(9:53:45 PM) nwsbot: LOT: Winnebago [Winnebago Co, IL] trained spotter reports FLOOD at 09:42 PM CDT — standing water in streets of winnebago. 6 inches deep in some places.

(9:41:47 PM) nwsbot: LOT: Rockford [Winnebago Co, IL] trained spotter reports TSTM WND GST of E75 MPH at 09:40 PM CDT — state and perryville.

(9:38:07 PM) nwsbot: LOT: Rockford [Winnebago Co, IL] trained spotter reports TSTM WND DMG at 09:33 PM CDT — branches and garbage flying. estimated 75 mph winds. torrential rain.
(9:38:43 PM) em-jarrod.cook: LOT: There are a couple of roads in the town of Winnebago that are flooded. Relayed to me by a friend who is a trained spotter. 9:25 PM

(9:36:32 PM) nwsbot: DVN: Lena [Stephenson Co, IL] trained spotter reports HEAVY RAIN of M2.25 INCH at 09:10 PM CDT — in the past 60 minutes. starting to rain heavily again.

(9:35:08 PM) nwsbot: LOT: 6 Ne Rockford [Winnebago Co, IL] broadcast media reports TSTM WND GST of M71 MPH at 09:32 PM CDT — near i-90 and riverside.

(9:31:03 PM) nwsbot: LOT: 4 Ne Rockford [Winnebago Co, IL] trained spotter reports TSTM WND GST of E80 MPH at 09:28 PM CDT — northeast side of rockford near north alpine road and spring creek road.

(9:14:53 PM) nwsbot: LOT: 2 N Winnebago [Winnebago Co, IL] broadcast media reports TSTM WND GST of E80 MPH at 09:11 PM CDT — wrex tv studios.

(8:39:35 PM) nwsbot: DVN: 5 Sse Council Hill [Jo Daviess Co, IL] trained spotter reports HEAVY RAIN of M3.36 INCH at 08:27 PM CDT — two hour rainfall amount. still raining.

(8:11:59 PM) nwsbot: DVN: 4 Wnw Lena [Stephenson Co, IL] public reports TORNADO at 07:55 PM CDT — possible tornado near tiger whip road.

(8:04:13 PM) nwsbot: DVN: 3 Ne Stockton [Jo Daviess Co, IL] public reports TORNADO at 07:55 PM CDT — possible tornado touchdown near jo davies / stephenson county line…relayed emergency manager.

(7:35:35 PM) nwsbot: DVN issues Tornado Warning for Dubuque, Jackson [IA] and Jo Daviess [IL] till 8:15 PM CDT …* AT 728 PM CDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A POSSIBLE TORNADO NEAR DUBUQUE REGIONAL AIRPORT…OR 8 MILES SOUTH OF DUBUQUE…MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. ANOTHER STORM WITH A POSSIBLE TORNADO IS 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALENA…ALSO MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.
(7:35:59 PM) nwsbot: DVN: 6 Nw Galena [Jo Daviess Co, IL] trained spotter reports TORNADO at 07:18 PM CDT — tornado sited 1 mile nw of intersection of us 20 and il 84

(7:27:42 PM) nwsbot: DVN: Dubuque [Dubuque Co, IA] trained spotter reports HAIL of half dollar size (E1.25 INCH) at 07:20 PM CDT —

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Posted under weather

This post was written by qni_it on July 27, 2011

Severe Weather Information

We will be updating this page frequently with updates and warnings. Push refresh for the most up-to-date information. Send all reports and photos to weather@wrex.com

(7:35:35 PM) nwsbot: DVN issues Tornado Warning for Dubuque, Jackson [IA] and Jo Daviess [IL] till 8:15 PM CDT …* AT 728 PM CDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A POSSIBLE TORNADO NEAR DUBUQUE REGIONAL AIRPORT…OR 8 MILES SOUTH OF DUBUQUE…MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. ANOTHER STORM WITH A POSSIBLE TORNADO IS 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALENA…ALSO MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.
(7:35:59 PM) nwsbot: DVN: 6 Nw Galena [Jo Daviess Co, IL] trained spotter reports TORNADO at 07:18 PM CDT — tornado sited 1 mile nw of intersection of us 20 and il 84

(7:27:42 PM) nwsbot: DVN: Dubuque [Dubuque Co, IA] trained spotter reports HAIL of half dollar size (E1.25 INCH) at 07:20 PM CDT —

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Posted under flooding, severe weather

This post was written by qni_it on July 27, 2011

Storms developing now

(6:48:44 PM) nwsbot: DVN issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning [wind: 60 MPH, hail: 1.00 IN] for Dubuque [IA] and Jo Daviess [IL] till 7:45 PM CDT

6:40pm – According to doppler radar estimates, nearly stationary storms that developed over Dubuque, Iowa in the past 30 minutes have dumped up to an inch of rain!

6:15pm – Here is a look at the current CAPE across our region. CAPE is the “convective available potential energy.” The higher the amounts (over 2,000) suggest a potential for severe thunderst

orms. In this case, we will have the potential for gusty wind. Because the gradient or change of CAPE with distance is so significant right over the area, there is growing concern of intense thunderstorm development in the next few hours. While a Severe Thunderstorm Watch may not be issued due to localized threat of wind, flooding rains will remain likely

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Posted under flooding, severe weather

This post was written by qni_it on July 27, 2011

Serious storms for evening!

Model guidance is ominously point to a flash flood situation this evening. I am pondering raising our Threatrack to level 3 for this possibility but will hold off until 5pm to make that decision as the radar remains pretty quiet.

A significant thermal and dewpoint gradient is right over Northern Illinois this afternoon. 3:30pm temperature and dewpoint analysis shows both of these zones right over us. Impressive dewpoints near 80 are presently observed between I-80 and I-88.

Storm development is expected in the next 2 hours over North-Central Iowa, Waterloo, points westward along a slowly-advancing cold front. Storms will develop quickly and move east along the boundary I talked about above. While some storms could produce hail and even an isolated tornado early this evening well west of Rockford, the main threat will be damaging straight-line wind and an even higher threat of flooding. The National Weather Service’s WRF model shows some 4 inch PER HOUR rains possible between 8pm and midnight here in Northern Illinois. This would cause major problems, similar to the significant flash flood in Freeport and Pearl City in July of last year and the double flash floods in the Keith Creek watershed in recent years.

We’ll have to watch closely as to where the convective train will travel. Please be advised of changing weather. Even though we don’t have a significant severe potential with tornadoes, hail, and even wind…the threat for significant flooding is certainly there. -ES

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Posted under flooding, severe weather

This post was written by qni_it on July 27, 2011

Morning thunderstorms are just the beginning…

…of an extended bout of heavy rain chances. This morning the Rockford area sits right on the edge of a boundary separating high dew point values to our southwest and slightly drier air northeast. In addition, a southwesterly low level jet continues to stream moisture into these storms.

What does this mean for you? Today, showers and thunderstorms will be very hard to time out. They will likely be with us through the 10:00am time this morning with a midday break, and further development this afternoon. While the threat of severe weather is low in far northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin, strong gusty storms may roll through in isolated form later on. Expect the best potential for this to be south of Rockford into early this evening.

Tomorrow, our atmosphere remains very moist with heavy downpours remaining likely.

-Aaron

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Posted under First Look

This post was written by qni_it on July 27, 2011

First US-bound tropical system?

11:00AM WEDNESDAY- A Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to make a flight to this disturbance later today. There is a high risk that the circulation may become developed within the next 24 hours. Right now on satellite, there are suggestions of a circulation about 50 miles from Cancun. The system continues to drift northward at 15 mph.

 

More than likely, a disturbance off the western tip of Cuba will develop into Tropical Storm Don. The Spaghetti plot of computer models shows this system headed into Texas by this weekend with one model putting this system up near hurricane force!

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Posted under tropical weather

This post was written by qni_it on July 26, 2011

Where is the best produce stand?

Last year, Susie’s Garden Patch in Garden Prairie was voted best produce stand in Northern Illinois. Who will it be this year? Post a comment and who knows, I just may have to do some live weather out there! You can also vote on our 13 Weather Authority Facebook page. (The link is to the right.)

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Posted under event

This post was written by qni_it on July 26, 2011

Weatherbrains

Last night I had the opportunity to be a guest on Weatherbrains, a netcast all about the weather. I was asked about our unique campaign to teach children about weather, Project: Tornado. We also talked about WREX’s philosophy when it comes to severe weather, our weather blog, and my weather lab (Theo). You can check out Monday night’s netcast by clicking here!

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Posted under weather geek

This post was written by qni_it on July 26, 2011

July shows incredible change

If you thought it was exceptionally dry the first portion of July, you are 100% correct. In fact, we saw under 2/10″ of rain for the first 21 days of this month! As for temperatures, they soared into the 90s for 11 days with 2 days at 100, which is the first occurrence since 1989!

The past 4 days have been very different. As our dome of high pressure brought hot and dry conditions, rain plagued the northern tier states along the jet stream (bottom image). Now that the high is finally breaking down, the jet stream is also plunging south. As this happens, temperatures are a bit cooler and rain is increasing. Looking at the past 4 days, we have seen highs in the 80s with nearly 2.5″ of rainfall in Rockford!

 

-Aaron

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Posted under weather

This post was written by qni_it on July 26, 2011