New technology to track Hurricane Isaac

6:25pm – First, I have to admit, Isaac isn’t a hurricane yet. However, it could be classified as one at any time. Hurricane Hunter Aircraft caught a wind near 74 which is the threshold between a tropical storm and hurricane.

Next, this is the perfect time to utilize our new stormtracking tool! We have made a significant upgrade we will use during times of developing weather. Instead of putting graphics in order before we go on the air, we will have all of the tools we need on the fly. In this snapshot, we can look at the most current weather models (shown as colored lines) and how that compares to the National Hurricane Center forecast (shaded regions). The center of the storm right now is less than 350 miles from New Orleans.

Isaac won’t be remembered for bringing catastrophic wind damage. Here is the GFS model’s depiction for sustained wind. NOTE: The lines are lines of equal wind, NOT equal pressure. So, on this map the center of Isaac is still right along the southern Louisiana coast around 8am Wednesday morning. Instead of strong wind, the surge and rain will be the biggest problems for folks along the coast.

Torrential rainfall will be a considerable threat from Isaac. Here, we’re examining the latest model analysis of rainfall through Friday afternoon. Areas immediately east of the track could get more than a foot of rain in 36 hours or so! To put that in perspective, that is about a third of the precipitation we get in Rockford in an entire year! What’s interesting to note is the track does favor heavy rainfall for Southern Illinois. St. Louis could even get a few inches of much-needed rainfall. Even though we may not get any drought-busting rains, Isaac will bring some great relief to drought-stricken areas along the Ohio River Valley.

Looking long range, the track will favor rain this far north this weekend. The only problem will be the fact that the heaviest rain will likely be east of the forecast track. Still, it’s enough for this forecaster to hike up a 30% chance of rain and thunder on Saturday. Because the system will be picking up forward momentum as a remnant low pressure system, it will only last for one day here.




Posted under tropical weather

This post was written by qni_it on August 27, 2012

3 Comments so far

  1. Justin August 27, 2012 10:05 PM

    If I see one more national news channel compare this to Katrina I will get sick… Fox News was on today (unfortunately) and they spent hours and hours comparing Isaac to Katrina, showing their storm paths, etc. Its nice to see that area of the gulf has taken better precautions, but its almost like they scare viewers to keep them watching. I guess whatever gets more money…

  2. Laurie August 28, 2012 4:33 AM

    Justin, no disrespect but, the reason they compare the two storms is to probably prepare the people of New Orleans, and those in the path of Isaac. I live on the Gulf Coast, in Texas, and I see how people do not take the evacuation warnings seriously. I for one, do not stick around to ride out the storm. I evacuated during Ike, and other hurricanes, in which they told us to get out. I don’t believe that people take the warnings seriously therefor, we have a lot of fatalities. My thoughts and prayers go out to all of those in the path of Isaac, including my family and friends, in Southern Illinois.

  3. Justin August 28, 2012 5:18 PM

    I definitely agree people need to be more aware. Plenty of times people think they can ride out a storm and it ends terribly. Any other time a cat 1 hurricane makes landfall there is decent enough television coverage to let people know to get out if necessary. For those that don’t, thats honestly their fault.

    Also, having the army corps of engineers on TV saying the levees are going to hold (Like they said during Katrina) doesn’t exactly help the evacuation process.

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