January severe weather outbreak in the works

It remains to be seen whether the instability needed for severe thunderstorms will be this far north, but much of the Central U.S. has the potential to see damaging, dangerous weather on Tuesday.

Threatrack|HD is an index of potential thunderstorm severity. We utilize CIPS data which finds parallels to the current set-up to thousands of systems in the past. In addition, we utilize model data and forecasts from the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center. The numbered system roughly corresponds to the percent-chance of severe weather with a level-5 being a 50% chance of severe thunderstorms. In this case, a 20% chance of severe thunderstorms exists for Northern Illinois and Southeastern Wisconsin.

Using that data, areas most prone to widespread damage include much of Arkansas, Southeastern Missouri, and far Southern Illinois. These areas are in a “significant risk” for a possible outbreak outbreak of severe thunderstorms and isolated tornadoes.

An “elevated risk” exists for areas shaded in yellow. This is where severe weather is likely, but on a more isolated scale. This set-up will support isolated tornadoes in these areas…possibly into the southern suburbs of Chicago.

Right now, we are forecasting a “low risk” of severe thunderstorms for Northern Illinois and Southeastern Wisconsin. This means, be ready for large hail and damaging wind, with an outside chance of a tornado. Please note: As new data comes in, this map will be refined Monday night and again Tuesday morning. -Eric

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Posted under severe weather, Threatrack

This post was written by qni_it on January 28, 2013

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