Tuesday is the Target

Day-by-Day

While Sunday will be a fair and tranquil day across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin, the effects of our next snowy system will begin to invade the area on Monday. Monday will have increasing cloud cover with a brisk easterly wind, as strong low pressure churns across the southern Plains. Monday’s highs will actually return to near normal for late February: in the middle 30s. With the way things are shaping up, nearly all of Monday will remain dry.

After midnight and especially into the predawn hours of Tuesday, the snowflakes will begin to fly in our region. The bulk of the computer forecast models are tracking this next system a bit further south than the last system. The GFS, European (ECMWF), NAM, and DGEX models all tend to track the low from near Tulsa, Oklahoma through central Illinois, central Indiana, and eventually near Detroit. This makes sense, considering the location of a significant temperature gradient (also known as the baroclinic zone) is in that general area. This track would bring the potential for several inches of snow to our area. The only outlier, as of this blog post, is the Canadian (GEM) model. The GEM tracks the low through northeastern Illinois, which would bring us more of a snow/sleet/rain/freezing rain mix and significantly lower snow totals.

Storm track, as of Saturday evening

While the trend for Tuesday’s system shows signs of weakening, it won’t weaken as much as last Thursday/Friday’s system.  However, the worst of this system will occur in parts of Kansas and Missouri once again. Another important piece of the puzzle is temperature. The track of the low will affect our temperature, which will in turn affect what type of precipitation will fall.  Right now, I anticipate much of the region to remain around the 32-degree mark with snow.  There are indications, however, that locations along and south of the I-88 corridor (Amboy, Rochelle, DeKalb) will contend with a wintry mix of precipitation during this event.

As this low pressure evolves in the Rockies on Sunday, I will have an updated storm track and blog post.  Initial snowfall accumulation predictions will be posted on Sunday too, with better refinement by Monday.  Stay tuned!

-Joe

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Posted under FutureTrack, snow, weather, winter weather

This post was written by qni_it on February 23, 2013

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