Another Tornado Outbreak?

Capture

untitled9:00pm – St. Louis and Oklahoma City Metro Areas struck by significant tornadoes this evening. Multiple fatalities being reported.

5:45pm – Spotters have reported a developing tornado in Canadian County, Oklahoma. However, this storm is moving east and may approach the Oklahoma City Metro area by 6:30pm.

Another tornado outbreak is happening in the Southern Plains this Friday afternoon. Long-lived, violent tornadoes are possible, especially in hard-hit Oklahoma where a “Particularly Dangerous Situation” Tornado Watch is in effect. Please let your friends and family in the following areas know there is a chance of tornadoes today, especially in southeastern Missouri, southern Kansas, and Oklahoma.

Here is a link to local TV stations that broadcast live on the web during severe weather and tornado events:

Oklahoma City:
ABC KOCO-TV
NBC KFOR-TV
CBS KWTV-TV

Tulsa:
ABC-KTUL-TV
NBC KJRH-TV
CBS KOTV-TV

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Posted under weather

This post was written by qni_it on May 31, 2013

Gustnado vs. Tornado

Today, we got quite a few reports of “possible tornadoes” including one spotted by several law enforcement officials in Whiteside Co. The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Davenport will be looking at any damage there on Friday, in order to determine what kind of damage was done there.

In the meantime, we received quite a few unconfirmed reports of tornadoes in Ogle County. After examination of storm photos, this was not a tornado…but a gustnado. What’s that you say? Let’s go in-depth.

TORNADO First let’s look at this example of a tornado. The storm is moving from left to right so picture yourself looking north into the storm.
More often than not, a severe storm with a tornado will produce heavy rain and hail with strong, gusty wind coming down from high within the storm. Then, once the rain and hail comes to an end, a tornado will exist at the bottom of the storm’s updraft. Finally, as the storm moves from left to right the rear-flank downdraft (often called the RFD) comes in to produce additional wind damage.

So that’s a tornado…most likely NOT what we had tonight.

Instead, let’s look at the diagram of a gustnado. Again, the storm is moving from left to right. Instead of the rain and hail coming first, a swirling vortex is seen BEFORE the storm. GUSTNADOIn all of the photos I’ve observed today, this vortex was not attached to the storm iteself. Instead, the wind moving out on the front side of the storm began swirling and created a gustnado (in short, a tornado on the gust front).

After seeing photos of the gustnado and hearing reports, it’s likely this was a strong one tonight! Trees and power lines were taken down in its path…and if a survey team assesses the damage, it’s likely to be classified as a gustnado with a rating on the Enhanced-Fujita Scale (the scale used to rate tornadoes).

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Posted under severe weather, weather geek

This post was written by qni_it on May 30, 2013

Shelf vs. Wall Cloud

shelf
Tonight, we observed a pretty spectacular shelf cloud ahead of a line of severe thunderstorms. But shelf clouds are often mistaken for wall clouds, which produce tornadoes.

Let’s take a look at a case example. On the left, a wall cloud. On the right, a shelf cloud, taken by Vicki Lay in Davis Junction, Illinois tonight. At first glance, they look extremely similar. However, they are indicators of much different weather.

A wall cloud hangs lower than the base of the thunderstorm cloud. In this example, a tornado would form in the middle of the lowering part of the rotating wall cloud. Most of the time, you can observe the wall cloud actually spinning, albeit quite slowly to the naked eye.

A shelf cloud on the other hand (right) is a wide row of clouds arcing out ahead of a thunderstorm. In Vicki’s case, the storm is moving from right to left. A lot of times, there are low-hanging clouds under the base of the shelf. These are called scud clouds. A lot of times, scud clouds hanging from the bottom of a shelf are mistaken for funnel clouds. However, if you observe scud clouds, they may have upward movement but rarely spin.

Good rule of thumb is when you see a real funnel cloud, you’ll know it! You will definitely be able to observe the spin. And remember the old-fashioned stormchasing saying “If it doesn’t spin, don’t call it in!” -Eric

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Posted under weather geek

This post was written by qni_it on May 30, 2013

Severe Weather 5/30/13

This video from Chad Toye of some dirt and dust spinning up on the frontside of the thunderstorms near Roscoe, IL

(5:36:59 PM) nwsbot: MKX issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning [wind: 70 MPH, hail: <.75 IN] for Green, Iowa, Lafayette [WI] till 6:30 PM CDT

(5:32:36 PM) nwsbot: DVN issues Tornado Warning [tornado: RADAR INDICATED, hail: <.75 IN] for Henry, Whiteside [IL] till 6:00 PM CDT …AT 527 PM CDT…A SEVERE SQUALL LINE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES THAT MAY NOT BE VISIBLE DUE TO HEAVY RAIN WAS LOCATED NEAR ERIE… AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

(5:23:58 PM) nwsbot: DVN issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning [wind: 60 MPH, hail: <.75 IN] for Clinton, Delaware, Dubuque, Jackson [IA] and Carroll, Jo Daviess, Stephenson, Whiteside [IL] till 6:30 PM CDT

EXACTRACK5:25PM – Severe storms have moved through the Quad Cities on their way toward Northern Illinois and the Rockford Metro. Extensive damage has been reported along the line with large trees and power lines taken down, as well as a roof blown off a home in Augusta, Illinois, south of Macomb. Please take this storm seriously! It has a history of producing damage. Stay indoors, away from windows if the storm approaches your area. In addition, a Tornado Watch remains in effect. Severe storms occasionally produce tornadoes with little advance warning. -Eric

4:47pm – Quarter sized hail in Lena, IL. Storm now between Winslow, IL and Monroe, WI…headed northeast. -Eric

(4:36:52 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: 2 NNW Lena [Stephenson Co, IL] trained spotter reports HAIL of pea size (E0.25 INCH) at 04:36 PM CDT —

4:25pm – Severe thunderstorms headed toward Aurora, IL right now just skimming southeastern DeKalb Co. The main threat for us in Northern Illinois will be from the squall line coming in from the Quad Cities area. -Eric

untitled(4:16:31 PM) nwsbot: LOT issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning [wind: 60 MPH, hail: 1.25 IN] for De Kalb, Grundy, Kane, Kendall, La Salle, Will [IL] till 5:15 PM CDT

2:30pm update – Storm over Lee County is severe. There is no rotation with the storm right now, but it remains dangerous as it heads toward Dixon. Remain indoors, away from windows, ready to get into the basement if you live in Dixon. -Eric

(2:16:29 PM) nwsbot: DVN issues Tornado Warning [tornado: RADAR INDICATED, hail: 1.00 IN] for Dubuque [IA] till 2:45 PM CDT …AT 213 PM CDT…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR CENTRALIA…AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

2:10pm update – A developing severe storm is located in Bureau County, headed into Lee County. Large hail to the size of quarters is likely with this storm. If you are in Amboy or Dixon, be prepared for severe weather. As this storm matures, it could produce a tornado within the next hour or so. Be ready for changing weather! -Eric

2(2:01:57 PM) nwsbot: DVN continues Severe Thunderstorm Warning [wind: 60 MPH, hail: 1.00 IN] for Bureau [IL] till 2:30 PM CDT

(11:57 AM) nwsbot: MKX issues Tornado Watch for Green, Rock [WI] till 7:00 PM CDT

(12:34 PM) nwsbot: LOT issues Tornado Watch for Boone, De Kalb, Lee,  Ogle, Winnebago [IL] till 8:00 PM CDT

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Posted under severe weather, tornado, weather

This post was written by qni_it on May 30, 2013

Damaging storms Wednesday night, more coming Thursday


We escaped the severe thunderstorm activity Wednesday night with many reports of damage coming out of Grant and Richland Counties in Southwest Wisconsin. Hardest hit was the Jellystone Camp near Bagley, Wisconsin, along the Mississippi River. A tornado was reported near Richland Center, Wisconsin. These photos show the extent of the damage, along with some breathtaking views of the storm structure.

Heading into Thursday afternoon, there will be boundaries left over from the storms the night before. These will be the focus for storm development into the afternoon. Plenty of heat and humidity, along with a disturbance coming in from the southwest should be enough to get storms going. The storm motion will be from the southwest to northeast with the highest likelihood for storms around the Quad Cities, points southwest. THREATRACKStill, with a few tornadoes reported in Iowa and Wisconsin Wednesday night, we must remain weather-aware on Thursday. Have a plan in place if you need to get to shelter quickly Thursday! Threatrack-2 for Thursday for large hail, damaging wind, and isolated tornadoes. -Eric

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Posted under weather

This post was written by qni_it on May 29, 2013

Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 2am

radar2A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for two of our local counties: Green and Rock. Even though this watch is in effect until 2am, it’s likely these storms will be done in the next few hours. In addition, the movement of these storms to the northeast will likely keep most of the activity around the Madison area, points north. Still, it bears watching, especially if you’re traveling north of the stateline tonight. -Eric

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Posted under severe weather

This post was written by qni_it on May 29, 2013

AMAZING VIDEO: Floodwaters break into Galesburg, IL college

Between 3 and 4 inches of rain came down on Wednesday across Western Illinois. Galesburg got hit the hardest with the rain quickly causing flash flooding. This video was captured by surveillance cameras as the water broke into the main campus of Carl Sandburg College…literally!

 

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Posted under end of the world, flooding

This post was written by qni_it on May 29, 2013

Isolated thunderstorms possible this afternoon

radar11Our latest RPM model shows a few developing thunderstorms here before dinner time. However, there is very little going on right now. Severe storms persist in Central Iowa with a new Severe Thunderstorm Watch posted as close as Grant Co., WI. But these are tracking northeast and may only clip our western counties this evening. Of note are a few cells trying to pop along the IA/MO border. As these speed up and move northeast, they could affect the Quad Cities and NW Illinois this evening.

rpmHere is a look at that RPM simulated radar. There are no indications on satellite that this will pop in the next half hour or so, but as daytime heating persists, thunderstorms could form. Storm motion will be almost due north from south. Some large hail and gusty wind is possible, but only if these get rooted in the surface boundary layer and evolve. We’ll keep you updated this afternoon! -Eric

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Posted under severe weather

This post was written by qni_it on May 29, 2013

More rough weather coming Wednesday evening

CaptureThe threat of severe weather has come and gone tonight. After a round of strong thunderstorms between 8-9pm, our atmosphere is quieting down considerably. For a time, there was even a Tornado Warning for Grundy and Will County, southwest of Joliet. However, this activity has moved into Northern Indiana. And with little to our west and an atmosphere worked over by storms 45,000 feet tall, I’m going to take our Threatrack down to Level 1 for the remainder of the night. It will remain muggy though with temperatures only falling into the middle 60s.

Severe weather will remain possible for Central Illinois overnight, mgWeb_WRF_20130528-210000_AGrLk_ECONUS_F00270000_PwinterThickness_R4kmalong with a threat for more flash flooding.

Looking ahead to the day Wednesday. It will remain warm and humid. This is a snapshot of the RPM model for 7pm. It’s an ominous picture with a simulated radar showing supercellular thunderstorms. With this type of scenario, large hail and isolated tornadoes will be possible. But most of the day is expected to be dry. This threat will exist only in the late afternoon and evening hours…much like Tuesday’s storms.

We won’t be able to rest easy after that because we’re in an area favorable for additional severe weather on Thursday! THREATRACKHere is a look at the Storm Prediction Center outlook with a slight risk taking up much of the Upper Midwest. It’s definitely time to be weather-aware! -Eric

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Posted under severe weather

This post was written by qni_it on May 28, 2013

Severe Thunderstorm Information

Exactrack|HD Doppler Radar


4:00pm – There is a risk of severe thunderstorms this evening from 5-10pm with damaging wind and hail. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, mainly before 9pm. No watches or warnings are in effect right now. Storms should diminish after midnight with lows in the middle 60s.

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Posted under severe weather, weather

This post was written by qni_it on May 28, 2013