Heavy Rain

A stalled out warm front that stretched through parts of the Missouri and mid-Mississippi Valleys has caused torrential rain and flooding across much of central and eastern Iowa.   The weekend rainfall total was over 3 inches in Muscatine, just 125 miles southwest of Rockford.  Some locations in central Iowa picked up over 8 inches of rain throughout the weekend!  Even parts of the Illinois River Valley, near Princeton and Kewanee, had flash flood warnings on Sunday evening. 

The majority of the showers and thunderstorms associated with that warm front moved to the southeast, with the remnant light showers affecting the Stateline area during the weekend.   That will change, however. 

 

The warm front is expected to slowly push north over the next 48 hours, bringing the threat for more frequent rounds of showers and thunderstorms to northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin.  The rain will be scattered in nature, so rainfall totals could be drastically different in Stockton versus Genoa, for example.  While it is tough to pinpoint how much rain will fall across our entire 13-county area, we do have an idea that some of the heavier thunderstorms will contain quick downpours.  Upon analyzing six forecast models and keeping an eye on radar trends, we may very well end up with an inch or even up to two inches of precipitation in spots.  The model outliers are the GFS model (0.83″ of rain in Rockford through Tuesday evening) and the GEM model (2.57″ in Rockford through Tuesday evening).  On average, the rainfall projection is around 1.44 inches, which is consistent with our in-house Adonis FutureTrack Rainfall model.

-Joe

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Posted under flooding, FutureTrack, rain, weather

This post was written by qni_it on May 26, 2013

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