Severe thunderstorms possible Tuesday afternoon

threatrack

After a drab Memorial Day Weekend, we’re setting the stage for possible severe weather in the days to come. For that reason, will raise our threatrack level to 2. However, should conditions continue to destablize, we may need to locally raise that. Capture2Problem: warm fronts can offer quite a bit of low-level wind shear needed to produce rotating thunderstorms. 

Here are the specifics: A warm front that has stood firm across Eastern Iowa and Central Illinois all weekend. This has produced significant flash flooding over the Hawkeye State and with the front nearby on Tuesday, severe thunderstorms with heavy rain are a distinct possibility! A pretty significant “vort max” will exist about 15,000 feet above ground level. This is essential for thunderstorms to be allowed to grow and slowly rotate. Rotation is essential for a thunderstorm to maintain its strength because it allows warm, humid a thunderstorm to be brought in to maintain the updraft.

CaptureIn addition to vorticity, there will be a strong jet streak on top of that. Think of this map as the speed of the air parcel at the top of the storm. The stronger the wind aloft, the higher chance a storm has to evacuate colder air on top of a storm. With the machine in motion, the storm can bring in low-level humid, warm air, and then dispersing the cooler, stable air aloft. This is key to forecasting strength of thunderstorms.

Capture3These are just a few of the factors that lead me to believe we have a threat of severe thunderstorms on Tuesday. We’ll also be looking at the placement of the warm front. If the warm front is close by, there will be a chance of a few tornadoes. Large hail will be a good bet with any mature storms, along with some gusty straight-line wind.

Share

Posted under severe weather

This post was written by qni_it on May 27, 2013

Leave a Comment

Name (required)

Email (required)

Website

Comments

 

More Blog Post

Previous Post: