Cool Record

A cold front is approaching the Stateline as we speak and when it gets here we could see one of the coldest July weekends on record! 2 Our afternoon high temperatures will be lucky to break 70 degrees tomorrow and will be in the low 70s for Sunday. Overnight lows take us into the upper 40s and low 50s! The coldest July weekend on record had an average temperature of 61°. If we take the average of both low temperatures and high temperatures expected this weekend and divide them by four we get a value of 61.5°. If that forecast hold true then we will experience the second coldest July weekend on record! -GregCapture

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Posted under cold blast, statistics, weather

This post was written by qni_it on July 26, 2013

Storms will threaten the area late tonight

radar We’re tracking thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin. Currently, storms with very large hail are bearing down on La Crosse, Wisconsin from the west. And while these storms are tracking to the southeast, it will take some time before they get into our air space. Right now, the forward movement is only about 25 mph which keeps them well to our northwest through sundown.

In addition, our atmosphere remains quite stable for the time being. This map shows the available energy in the atmosphere (red lines). capeCAPE, as it’s called, rises to over 3000 over southeastern Minnesota which is why these storms are firing. In addition, a vorticity maximum (responsible for the lift of clouds into thunderstorms) is moving into southwestern Minnesota. Of note is the real lack of CAPE over Northern Illinois and Southern Wisconsin. This protects us from any thunderstorm development until late tonight.

As we head into the overnight hours, thunderstorms are expected here in Northern Illinois and Southern Wisconsin. However, they will be in a weakening mode…likely well below severe limits. -Eric

 

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Posted under severe weather

This post was written by qni_it on July 25, 2013

Start the weekend with storms

A cold front is on its way and unfortunately will bring us some thunderstorm activity for Friday. However, we really do need the rainfall so I guess it’s a blessing it’s coming BEFORE the weekend!

CaptureHere’s a look at Futuretrack for Friday afternoon. Most of the activity should be done by 3pm Friday with drying conditions for your evening plans. The weekend looks downright cool! Highs will be in the middle 70s with overnight lows possibly dipping into the upper 40s in Rockford Saturday night. -Eric

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Posted under weather

This post was written by qni_it on July 24, 2013

Year to Year

1This July has been a tale of ups and downs. We started the month with well below average temperatures and that trend held steady for a better part of the first half of the month. Then we saw a change in trend with last week’s stretch of 90 degree heat. As of today, we have returned to a below average pattern that could keep our high temperatures below average until the beginning of August! This is a drastic difference in comparison to last July, that yielded five 100 degree days. Here is a day by day comparison of this July and last July. -Greg

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Posted under statistics, weather

This post was written by qni_it on July 23, 2013

Severe Weather Information

Click refresh for the latest radar view -Eric

11:45pm – The severe weather threat has ended for our area. PLEASE be mindful of downed power lines. Treat all as if they were live. Also note that wet pavement can conduct the electricity! There are numerous intersections with no working signals. Treat all intersections as if all traffic has a stop sign. -Eric

(11:34 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: 2 WSW Poplar Grove [Boone Co, IL] broadcast media reports TSTM WND DMG at 10:38 PM CDT — several large trees fallen on three homes in candlewick lake subdivision near poplar grove. time estimated based on radar.

(11:09 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS MKX: 9 WNW Beloit [Rock Co, WI] trained spotter reports TSTM WND GST of M37 MPH at 10:40 PM CDT — 0.60 inches of rain from about 1040pm to 1110pm.

BREAKING: Several homes in the Candlewick Lake subdivision have been hit by large trees. -Eric

(11:03 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: 1 W De Kalb [De Kalb Co, IL] mesonet reports TSTM WND GST of M40 MPH at 10:55 PM CDT —

(11:00 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Marengo [Mchenry Co, IL] public reports TSTM WND GST of E60 MPH at 10:50 PM CDT —

(10:56 PM) nwsbot: LOT continues Severe Thunderstorm Warning [wind: 70 MPH, hail: 0.75 IN] for Boone, De Kalb, Kane, Lee, McHenry, Ogle, Winnebago [IL] till 11:30 PM CDT

(10:54 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: 1 S Harvard [Mchenry Co, IL] mesonet reports TSTM WND GST of M49 MPH at 10:49 PM CDT —

(10:44 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: 3 NNE Stockton [Jo Daviess Co, IL] public reports TSTM WND GST of M48.00 MPH at 09:57 PM CDT — small one inch diamater limb knocked down.

(10:47 PM) media-eric.sorensen: Wind damage: 15-20inch diameter pine evergreen snapped at Riverside and Perryville Rd. in Loves Park.

media-eric.sorensen (10:48 PM) media-eric.sorensen: Large trees in Poplar Gr. blocking IL173.

10:41 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: 2 E Rockford [Winnebago Co, IL] trained spotter reports TSTM WND GST of E60 MPH at 10:37 PM CDT — estimated 55-60 mph winds.

(10:33 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Rockford Airport [Winnebago Co, IL] official nws obs reports TSTM WND GST of M48 MPH at 10:29 PM CDT —

(10:31 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Roscoe [Winnebago Co, IL] trained spotter reports TSTM WND GST of M55 MPH at 10:30 PM CDT —
(10:12 PM) nwsbot: LOT issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning [wind: 60 MPH, hail: 1.00 IN] for Boone, Winnebago [IL] till 11:00 PM CDT

(10:09 PM) nwsbot: MKX issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning [wind:

(10:00 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: Freeport [Stephenson Co, IL] broadcast media reports HAIL of penny size (M0.75 INCH) at 09:55 PM CDT —

9:43 PM) nwsbot: MKX issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning [wind:

(9:36 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: Savanna [Carroll Co, IL] awos reports TSTM WND GST of M41.00 MPH at 09:15 PM CDT —

nwsbot (9:36 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: 3 NE Stockton [Jo Daviess Co, IL] co-op observer reports TSTM WND GST of M39.00 MPH at 09:24 PM CDT — 1 minute of pea sized hail. heavy rain is falling.

(9:28 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: 1 ESE Nora [Jo Daviess Co, IL] trained spotter reports HAIL of penny size (E0.75 INCH) at 09:27 PM CDT — pea to penny size hail. also estimated 40 mph winds.

9:10pm – Technical discussion concerning severe weather threat: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1473.html

(8:23 PM) nwsbot: DVN extends area of Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Clinton, Jackson, Scott [IA] and Carroll, Henry, Jo Daviess, Mercer, Rock Island, Whiteside [IL] till Jul 23, 12:00 AM CDT

(8:16 PM) nwsbot: DVN issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning [wind: 60 MPH, hail: <.75 IN] for Cedar, Clinton, Dubuque, Jackson, Jones, Muscatine, Scott [IA] and Jo Daviess [IL] till 9:00 PM CDT

8:15pm – Strong thunderstorms continue for areas around Madison and just west of the Mississippi River. These complexes are moving southeast very slowly and need to be monitored 9pm-2am. -Eric

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Posted under severe weather

This post was written by qni_it on July 22, 2013

Comfortably Cool Week Ahead

1After last week’s brutal heat wave that brought us our hottest week of the summer, this week looks to be quite the opposite! High temperatures sat in the 90s for most of last week with heat index values at or above 100 degrees Tuesday-Friday. This week will yield us one hot and humid day, and that day is today. Highs will make it into the upper 80s to low 90s with heat index temps in the mid 90s. Tonight bring us a cold front that will settle us into a much more comfortable pattern for the rest of the week. High temps Tuesday-Sunday will only make it into the upper 70s and low 80s. The humidity will also remain dialed back until at least the weekend. High pressure will be over head all week and will help reinforce the cooler temperatures and provide us with mostly sunny skies for the next 3 days. Enjoy! -Greg

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Posted under weather

This post was written by qni_it on July 22, 2013

Average High Temperature on the Decline

fallingdownToday—Sunday, July 21, 2013—marked the first day in over six months when Rockford’s average high temperature was lower than the day before!  Saturday’s average high temperature was 85 degrees while Sunday’s average high was 84 degrees.

What exactly is an “average high” and how is it calculated you might ask?!  Weather averages are recalculated every 10 years to include the previous 30 year period.  Our current averages are based on past weather from 1981 through 2010.  For example, the average high for July 21, 2013 is calculated by using the maximum temperature observed on every July 21 from 1981 through 2010.  By adding the 30 numbers together and dividing by 30, the statistical average maximum temperature for July 21st equals out to 84 degrees.  A statistical average is by no means normal, since we can have a wide range of high temperatures on any given date.  Using the July 21st example, the highest maximum temperature in Rockford on that day was 102 degrees (1934) while the lowest maximum temperature was 77 degrees (1952).

From now until January 6, 2014, our average high temperature will continue to decrease.  That’s not to say that we will not have hot weather.  August and September usually have a few 90+ degree days, with 100 degrees not out of the question in northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin.  It is still summertime, after all!

-Joe

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Posted under 13 Climate Authority, statistics, weather

This post was written by qni_it on July 21, 2013

Hot & Humid Monday

heatindexA warm front will push north of the Stateline on Monday morning, ushering in a warm and moist atmosphere. High temperatures will climb into the upper 80s and touch 90 degrees in a few backyards.  Combined with tropical dew points in the 70s and high humidity, our afternoon and evening heat index will top out near 95 degrees!

A majority of the day will be dry with a mix of sun and clouds, but an isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out.  The chance of rain during the day is just 30%.  Late in the day and into Monday night a cold front will approach the region, bringing the best chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms.

-Joe

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Posted under weather

This post was written by qni_it on July 21, 2013

Sunday Fun-day Forecast

fairandfestforecastThere are plenty of options for fun on Sunday across the Stateline.  Oregon Trail Days in Ogle County, the Elizabeth Community Fair in Jo Daviess County, and the Green County Fair in Monroe, Wisconsin are just a few of tomorrow’s events.  In fact, Sunday is the final day for all three!  Unfortunately, we have the threat for a few showers and thunderstorms to pop up, especially during the afternoon and evening (perhaps a bit earlier in Wisconsin). That chance of rain is 40%, so don’t let it keep you from visiting one of the fairs.  High temperatures will top out in the lower 80s, with some upper 70s north of the Wisconsin border. 

-Joe

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Posted under event, rain, weather

This post was written by qni_it on July 20, 2013

Scattered T’Storms on Sunday

A cool front that moved through the Stateline on Friday night has set up shop as a stationary front in northern Missouri and central Illinois. The hot & humid airmass will remain south of that front.  However, it will begin to push back north as a warm front throughout the day Sunday. As that front moves north, a few scattered showers and thunderstorms will dot the sky across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin.  Sunday will be mostly cloudy, although a few sunny breaks are likely.  Highs will reach the lower 80s.  While we’ve got the chance to see some wet weather throughout the day, the best chances will come during the afternoon, evening, and nighttime hours on Sunday through very early Monday morning.

Monday should see a midday break with a brief return to the hot and humid air. Expect a partly cloudy sky with highs in the upper 80s. By the evening, more scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop and last into the nighttime hours.

A few heavy downpours are possible at times over the next 48 hours.  However, the rain and thunderstorms will be scattered in nature, so not everyone will receive the same amount of rain across our 13 counties.

-Joe

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Posted under rain, Threatrack, weather

This post was written by qni_it on July 20, 2013