Heavy rain and severe weather chances increase late-week

1It’s no secret we need more rain. This past weekend gave us less than a tenth of an inch areawide! Here’s a look at the potential beginning late Wednesday night, ending Saturday. There’s a real good possibility we get more than a half inch of rain. In fact, some of the proxy indicators suggest a better than 50/50 chance of seeing more than a half inch! As these continue to be refined, their accuracy will increase. So, we’ll be able to zoom into this map with more accuracy in the next 24 hours.

Along with the chance of heavy rainfall will be the passage of a strong cold front sometime Friday. If this was May, June, July, or even August, I’d be more concerned of severe weather. However, the storm variables are harder to get in line this time of year. It all depends on timing. If it comes through during the late-afternoon hours and there’s enough instability, we could be talking about some damaging wind (squall line). Right now, it’s a little early to speculate…but we’ll be all over it in the next few days.

Be sure to check back on the blog and on our 13 Weather Authority Facebook page, where almost 15,000 of you are watching the weather, right along with us!

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Posted under rain, severe weather

This post was written by qni_it on September 30, 2013

Federal shutdown would not affect National Weather Service

DCF 1.0If the Federal government shuts down at midnight tonight, rest assured you will continue to receive weather alerts from the National Weather Service. According to a blog by the “Capital Weather Gang” at the Washington Post, the 3,935 employees of NOAA’s National Weather Service would continue working. Excluded in the shutdown are “Emergency operations that protect against a significant and imminent threat to the safety of human life and property”

 

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Posted under safety

This post was written by qni_it on September 30, 2013

October Heat

We end this September with highs in the mid 70s, a very respectable way to go out, and well above average. However, tomorrow will bring in the month of October with even warmer temperatures! We are shooting for highs in the low to mid 80s with bright blue sky all day long. CaptureThis will by far be the warmest October 1st in the past 5 years, and only the second one with an above average high temperature. There is a good bet that we will get a double dose of the 80s before cooler air pushes in late this week. -Greg

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Posted under heat wave, statistics, weather

This post was written by qni_it on September 30, 2013

Fairly Dry September

As expected, our last batch of rain was not enough to help with our local drought conditions.  Saturday rainfall totals were generally light across the Stateline.  Galena and Monroe were the big winners.  The rest of the area was lucky to pick up a tenth of an inch of rain!

Saturday 09/28/13 Rainfall

Saturday 09/28/13 Rainfall

With no rain in the forecast for the last day of September (Monday), Rockford will end the month with a deficit of 1.74 inches.

Other Saturday Rainfall Totals

Other Saturday Rainfall Totals

Our drier-than-average trend began in July.  When looking at the observations taken at Chicago Rockford International Airport, the Forest City has received a little more than half of its normal rainfall over the past three months.  Officially just 6.45 inches of rain fell at the airport between July 1st and September 29th.  Rainfall deficits are higher for areas west and south of Rockford.

Rainfall Deficit

Rainfall Deficit

No rain is in the forecast for the first two days of October—Tuesday and Wednesday—but there are signs of potentially heavy rain by Thursday and Friday.  Since it’s so far out, there will be changes made to the forecast.  As of this blog post, models are all over the place with potential rainfall for the end of the week.  Some are hinting at a quarter to half an inch of rain while others are hinting at two or three inches of rain!  It is still too early to pinpoint.

Change on the Way

Change on the Way

Keep it tuned to the weather blog throughout the week as this will be an interesting system to watch evolve.

-Joe

P.S.  Much cooler temperatures are in the forecast for next weekend.  Highs may struggle to hit 60 degrees in some spots!

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Posted under drought, rain, statistics, weather

This post was written by qni_it on September 29, 2013

Another Warm-Up

Saturday’s high temperatures maxed out as much as 15 degrees warmer than average across the Stateline.  All of us climbed into the lower 80s except western Jo Daviess County, where clouds and showers enveloped the sky earlier than the rest of the area.

High Temperatures - 09/28/2013

High Temperatures – 09/28/2013

A cold front, which brought clouds and scattered showers for much of Saturday evening and night, will set the stage for a brief cool down on Sunday. Sunday’s highs will top out in the lower 70s across the area.  Our average high this time of year is 70 degrees.

Warming Up Again

Warming Up Again

A warming trend will heat things up around here as early as Monday!  Highs will climb into the middle 70s.  A return to the lower 80s is forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday.  The sun will be with us that entire time, but the threat for rain returns by the end of the week.

-Joe

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Posted under sunlight, weather

This post was written by qni_it on September 28, 2013

Timing Saturday’s Rain

1I know what you’re thinking: Why does it have to rain on the weekend? First, we desperately need the rainfall. Secondly, it won’t affect more than a few hours of our Saturday!
Here’s the latest model guidance from our RPM model which shows the bulk of the rain west of the area around 1:30pm.

Scattered showers will increase through the late-afternoon hours with the peak of the rain coming around dinnertime. As the front moves through, our chance of rain will wind down…just in time for your late-movie or dinner plans. Rainfall, on average, will likely be in the quarter to half inch range. -Eric

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Posted under rain

This post was written by qni_it on September 27, 2013

Friday Night Football

Here is a look at this evening’s football forecast, and it doesn’t get much better than this in late September! Tune in to 13 News @ 10 for a full recap of all tonight’s biggest matchups and highlights. -Greg Capture

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Posted under event, First Look, weather

This post was written by qni_it on September 27, 2013

Drought Sticks Around

September continues to be drier than normal.  During the month that acts as our gateway to Autumn and the harvest season, Rockford picks up about 3.35″ of rainfall on average.  As of today (September 26), the Forest City has only picked up 1.54″ of rain.  We’ve got a long way to go to get back to normal.

 

Drought Monitor 09/24/13

Drought Monitor 09/24/13

The latest United States Drought Monitor update shows an expanded ‘Severe Drought’ for central Illinois, including areas as far north as southern Whiteside County.  ‘Abnormally Dry’ conditions were present across almost 90% of the Prairie State.  Wisconsin actually saw areas with ‘Severe Drought’ conditions decrease ever so slightly, with ‘Abnomally Dry’ conditions covering 60% of the state.

Locally, the U.S. Drought Monitor continues to classify a small section of north central Illinois as drought-free, including metro Rockford.  This can be a bit misleading.  While it is true that Rockford has about a 5″ rainfall surplus for the year, the last three months have had significant rainfall deficits:

  • July 2013: deficit of 2.03″
  • August 2013: deficit of 1.67″
  • September 2013: deficit of 1.41″ so far

The prospect for rain is in the forecast as the month of September comes to a close.  However, the prospect for drought-busting rain is not in the forecast.

Staying Below Average

Staying Below Average

Models continue to trend low on our rainfall amounts for this Saturday evening and Saturday overnight.  Rain showers are likely, but it appears we will only see our rain gauges pick up 0.30″ at most.  The majority of the energy with this weekend’s system will stay in northern Wisconsin, Minnesota, and south central Canada. Some areas in the Northwoods could pick up over 1″ of rain.

-Joe

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Posted under 13 Climate Authority, drought, rain, statistics, weather

This post was written by qni_it on September 26, 2013

Wild Card Weekend

We have only needed two variables to describe this entire week, “sunny” and “warm”. As we head toward the weekend we begin to rack up quite the laundry list of variables that will make up the forecast.

Variables:
Dry
Clear
Overcast
Warm
Cool
Windy
Thunderstorms
Showers

The trick is in the timing, so lets break down the weekend piece by piece. Friday will be warm, dry and clear. Our high temperatures flirt with 80 degrees across the board with ample sunshine very similar to the past 4 days. Capture1Saturday introduces some new variables. We will start the day partly cloudy with highs once again pushing near 80 degrees. Throughout the afternoon, clouds and wind will be on the increase in anticipation of an incoming cold front. Late Saturday. pushing toward the evening hours, a chance for showers and even a few thunderstorms return to the forecast for the first time in a while. Capture2That chance for rain will take us through the overnight and we could be left with a few lingering showers to start off your Sunday morning. High temps on Sunday will be down considerably thanks to the passing of the cold front. We will only make it into the low 70s with a gradually clearing sky. – GregCapture3

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Posted under First Look, weather

This post was written by qni_it on September 26, 2013

No big signs of fall until…

untitledEven though we’re working on the timing of a cold front Saturday, there isn’t much cold air in its wake. In fact, every one of the next 7 days will see above-normal temperatures. There’s even a good chance we’ll surpass 80 degrees Friday and Saturday.
Even after the cool front Saturday, we’ll see temperatures in the low to mid 70s next week…well above the seasonal norms which dip into the 60s.

22But this view of the National Weather Service’s GFS model for a week from Saturday shows the fall season’s first batch of seriously cold air. While this is out in “Model La-La-Land” it bears watching as this type of cold air would yield high temperatures in the 40s!

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Posted under cold blast

This post was written by qni_it on September 25, 2013