Considerable warm-up coming next week!

10Temperatures are finally on the up & up over the next week! Gone are the highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s. Instead, the bitterly cold air will be forced back up to the higher latitudes. This map shows the airmasses next Wednesday off the ECMWF computer model. Of note are the “warm” colors over Northern Illinois and Southern Wisconsin. If I didn’t have the chance of rain on Wednedsay and Thursday, I’d be optimistic for some 60s! Still, with a southerly wind, we’ll see 50s!

The problem is with the rain. As I said on 13News@6, the treat is in the temperature. The trick could be rain showers on Halloween. But even that isn’t a sure-bet at this point. Here’s a look at the two solutions for Halloween. 3While one model has low pressure over Oklahoma, at the same time another model has it over Quebec! Take that for model consistency! Heck, even if you take the middle of the road, we’ve got the low pressure over the Midwest with rain here. So, I’ll go with just a 30% chance of rain right now. What’s for certain is the really cold air will remain in Canada. This means if we can escape the rain, there’s a chance we’ll be in the 60s for Halloween.

Hopefully these models stop giving us tricks in the coming days. -Eric

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Posted under cold blast

This post was written by qni_it on October 24, 2013

Warmer winters mean more lake-effect snow

Lake-Effect-Snow

 

Warmer winter climates are causing more lake-effect snow due to warmer, ice-free waters! One might think that there would be less snow in a warming world, but that is not the case for lake-effect snow. In fact, during the period from 1931-2001, there’s been a noticeable upward trend in the amount of lake-effect snow falling each year.

 

 

Lake-effect snow is created when cold air swoops over the warmer water of the Great Lakes, which hold heat longer than the atmosphere. Water quickly evaporates from the lakes and then falls as snow (if temperatures remain low enough) as winds put it onshore. From 1979 through 2006, the Great Lakes’ surface temperature has warmed 4.5°F. That corresponds with decreased winter ice cover on the lakes. Observations dating back to 1850 also show lake ice forming later and dissipating earlier. So, more exposed and warmer water are supporting more lake-effect snow.

 

These conditions mean more lake-effect snow is likely for the near future. However, with winter temperatures projected to keep rising across the region, fewer days below freezing (particularly along the Southern Great Lakes) could reverse that trend by the end of the twenty-first century with areas downwind of the lakes receiving more lake-effect rain than snow. -Eric

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Posted under climate/climate change

This post was written by qni_it on October 24, 2013

When’s the Warmth Coming?

Anyone else sick of this cold weather yet?? If you are, some relief is finally in sight, though it is still a few days away.Capture1 The jetstream has moved into the southern states and has brought well below average temperatures to nearly the entire northern half of the US. This cold air will retreat once the jet decides to meander back to the north, which will take place heading into the weekend. Highs will top out at 50 degrees on both Saturday and Sunday and climb into the mid to upper 50s by Monday and Tuesday. Believe it or not, the upper 50s is right around where we are supposed to be at this time of the year. – GregCapture2

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Posted under cold blast, First Look

This post was written by qni_it on October 23, 2013

How Rare is October Snow?

Snowflakes in October are not uncommon in Rockford, northern Illinois, and southern Wisconsin.  Accumulating snow so early in the Fall season, however, is pretty rare.  As expected, our southern and southwestern counties (Carroll, DeKalb, Lee, Ogle & Whiteside) did see accumulating snow, mainly on grassy and elevated surfaces.  The snow was quick to melt thanks to a relatively warm ground, so snowfall measurements were hard to take.  A few locations picked up around an inch. Take a look at these PHOTOS!

October 22, 2013 Snow Totals

October 22, 2013 Snow Totals

If you live north of State Street, you likely didn’t see any snowflakes.  That wasn’t the case for parts of the south side and Cherry Valley, where a few flakes were flying early in the afternoon.  A trace amount of snow was observed at Chicago-Rockford International Airport today (October 22).  The last time a trace of snow was observed during the month of October in Rockford was on October 10, 2009. While a ‘trace’ does not count as a measurable snowfall, 0.1″ of snow does.  The last time Rockford saw any measurable snow during the month of October was over 20 years ago!  On October 20, 1992, just 0.1″ of snow fell at the airport.  The earliest measurable October snowfall in the Forest City occurred on October 12th in 1909.  The greatest October snowfall occurred on October 23rd in 1929 with 5 inches of snow! 

RFD Snow Statistics

RFD Snow Statistics

Accumulating snow is indeed rare during October.  To put that into greater perspective, the last time Rockford saw an inch or more of snow was 46 years ago on October 26th, 1967!

-Joe

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Posted under 13 Climate Authority, snow, statistics, weather

This post was written by qni_it on October 22, 2013

First Snow of the Season

Many communities throughout northern Illinois saw the first flakes of the Fall season.  In parts of Carroll, Lee, Ogle & Whiteside County, it almost looked like Winter with accumulating snow!  We received some great photos! But head to our FACEBOOK page or WREX for a few more! -Joe

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Posted under First Look, photos, snow, weather, winter weather

This post was written by qni_it on October 22, 2013

Coldest Night Since April

Today has brought may of us our first snowflakes of the season, as well as our first low temperature in the 20s since back on April 4th. 1Last night was just the first in a stretch of four straight nights that will bottom out below the 30 degree mark. The last time that happened was also back in the beginning of April. Today’s 20 is just a bit ahead of the first 20 we saw last fall which came on Oct. 27th, but the streak of four straight nights in the 20s is coming well ahead of last year’s first stretch between Nov. 12th and 15th. The good news is that as we head out of the week, the weekend will bring us some slight relief with a return to 50s during the day and 30s at night.

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Posted under cold blast, snow

This post was written by qni_it on October 22, 2013

Wintry Feel to Tuesday

It had to happen sometime!  On average, we see our first trace of snow in Rockford around November 2nd.  It appears that it will be earlier than normal this year.

Model run after model run continues to verify an Alberta Clipper trekking through the state of Illinois on Tuesday.  A change in the track of the clipper of just 50 miles north or south, however, will change our forecast.  As of Monday evening, the system was diving through the Dakotas and setting its sights on Iowa overnight.

clipped

After a chilly start in the upper 20s, temperatures will struggle to reach the lower 40s Tuesday.  Precipitation will begin in the form of rain showers, eventually mixing with snow showers as the column of air above us cools.  It is possible that for a very brief period, the rain-snow mix will switch over to all snow in a few spots.  The bulk of the precipitation, however, should be rain.

Luckily for those of you who dislike snow, our ground temperature will be warm enough that little in the way of accumulation can be expected.  Metro Rockford and the northern tier of counties in Illinois may record a trace amount of snow or perhaps a little bit more.  Areas south and southwest of Rockford—south of the I-88 corridor and closer to the Quad Cities—may pick up an inch. With the system just brushing by the region, southern Wisconsin may escape Tuesday dry. Keep it tuned to WREX as the track of this system will impact the forecast!

Little or No Accumulation

Little or No Accumulation

Again, rain showers mixing with snow showers are possible Tuesday morning through afternoon.  Any snow accumulations will be on grassy and elevated surfaces and will quickly melt. Travel impacts will be low to none. And it’s hard to believe that Halloween hasn’t arrived yet, but we’re talking about the four-letter “S” word!

-Joe

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Posted under rain, snow, weather, winter weather

This post was written by qni_it on October 21, 2013

Freeze Warning Overnight

Freeze Warning

Freeze Warning

A Freeze Warning is in effect for the entire Stateline area for Tuesday overnight and early Wednesday morning.  Temperatures are expected to tumble below freezing for a period of a few hours overnight.  Many locations will drop into the upper 20s for lows.

-Joe

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Posted under cold blast, frost, weather

This post was written by qni_it on October 21, 2013

Flirting With Snow

Our coldest air of the season thus far is upon us, and with it comes the possibility of some snow during the first half of our Tuesday. An Alberta clipper is making its way down from Canada and headed in our direction. Due to how early we are in the season, many of our simulators are disagreeing upon what will happen tomorrow. Right now the best bet is that between 6-10am we could see our first snow flakes of the season across most of Northern Illinois. The heaviest of the snow that could fall will likely be to the south of our area between I88 and I80. 1We could see a rain/snow mix or even all snow due to the frigid temperatures aloft in the atmosphere. Right now a dusting isn’t completely out of the question, though it is unlikely. Northern Illinois is right on the cusp of this system and with simulator disagreement, if the system shifts its course by even 100 miles we could be seeing all rain or nothing at all. Southern Wisconsin will likely miss the boat on most if not all the activity. Our next model run is due in within the next three hours and will have a much better handle on the situation. Stay tuned! – Greg

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Posted under cold blast, snow

This post was written by qni_it on October 21, 2013

Temperature Swing

A cold night is on tap for the Stateline.  A few lingering sprinkles will move out of the area by midnight.  The sky will begin to clear off for a bit overnight, allowing temperatures to fall to the freezing mark in many locations.  Isolated pockets of upper 20s are not out of the question, especially in rural and low-lying areas.  A Frost Advisory is in effect from 1am until 8am Sunday.

FutureTrack Temperature Simulation - Sunday AM

FutureTrack Temperature Simulation – Sunday AM

The passage of a warm front will briefly allow temperatures to rise into the upper 50s and lower 60s across the Stateline on Sunday, with perhaps an isolated shower / a few sprinkles during the afternoon and evening hours. Our average high temperature for October 20th is 61 degrees.

FutureTrack Temperature Simulation - Sunday PM

FutureTrack Temperature Simulation – Sunday PM

The bottom drops out Sunday overnight as a cold front sweeps through the Stateline.  Monday will be quite blustery with a northwest wind gusting 20 to 30mph and highs only topping out around 45 degrees!  Click HERE for the latest forecast.

-Joe

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Posted under cold blast, frost, weather

This post was written by qni_it on October 19, 2013