Arctic air absent through Wednesday

Temperatures will be on the rebound of sorts for a few days. No, we won’t have record highs, but at least it will be more tolerable. Friday morning’s low temperature was 11° in Rockford. Over the next few days, we’ll stay in the 20s and 30s at night with 30s, 40s, and possibly 50s for highs through Wednesday.

WORKINGAGAINSOur attention will turn to some moisture coming in Monday and Tuesday. While daytime temperatures are expected to be well above freezing, the drizzle that will fall at night could occur when temperatures are below freezing. Some minimal road impacts will be possible. But the extensive cloudiness will keep our temps in check both days.

snowloversOn Wednesday, we’ll see a strong south wind. This will usher in Gulf moisture as well as a warmer brand of air. Will shoot for 50° right now with a strong wind coming in behind a cold front. This means temps will take a tumble on Thursday and Friday with the cold air likely continuing through the following weekend.

No accumulating snows are foreseen in the coming week (unless somehow we get temperatures colder for Monday and Tuesday and turn that drizzle into light snow…not likely). -Eric

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Posted under cold blast

This post was written by qni_it on November 29, 2013

Chilly Start to Black Friday

If you headed out this morning to get in on some of the great deals and big savings, it only took you a few seconds to realize that it was a very chilly start to the day. chilly This week has been loaded with chilly mornings, but there is a bright side as we chug along into the rest of the holiday weekend. Our overnight lows will be limited to the 20s for the next 4 nights which will feel much more tolerable than the recent string of single digits and teens. chillyWe will even kick up the high temperatures into the low to mid 40s by the middle of next week. – Greg

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Posted under cold blast, event

This post was written by qni_it on November 29, 2013

Okay everyone, PANIC!

Temperatures have been below normal for the past few weeks and it appears the trend will continue for the next several weeks. While the continued trend of below-normal temperatures will increase our chance of seeing a white Christmas four weeks from now, we may be ready for a warm up by then.

UntitledThe ECMWF computer model is one of just a few that looks out beyond day 5. For several days now, it has been painting a bleak picture for the weather in the lower 48 in the December 8-14 timeframe. Here is a look at the overall departure from normal when it comes to the geopotential height of the atmosphere. So you’re saying “What the heck is that?” Think of this! Since colder air is more dense than warm air it causes the pressure to be lower in cold airmasses. So, geopotential heights are lower in cold airmasses and higher in warm airmasses.

Makes it easier to understand the map now, doesn’t it? I’ve drawn in the approximate location of the jet stream as well. While our temperature could be 20-30 degrees below normal, there are equal geographical spots where the temperature is 20-30 degrees above normal! In other words, there is an extreme amount of variability in the Northern Hemisphere.

BaBx4XYCIAAh387While I’m only in charge of a 7 Day Forecast, let’s look at what this type of set up means for surface temperature. Scary, isn’t it? There’s a -24°F in Southwestern Wisconsin! If that came true, it would near all-time record lows for the month of December…and for any date in winter! In other words, that’s about as cold as you can ever get here in Northern Illinois and Southern Wisconsin!

Before we jump on the “THE WORLD IS GOING TO END” bandwagon, consider this: This is a model forecast. It WILL change. It WILL change considerably in the next few days. However, every day that it is consistent with this cold solution, the more believable it is.

So, get out there and shop ’til you drop Friday morning! Get your Christmas shopping done and you just might be able to brag when everyone’s out in the deep freeze before the holidays. -Eric

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Posted under cold blast, record weather

This post was written by qni_it on November 27, 2013

Big travel troubles in Northwest Indiana

michiganWednesday is the busiest travel day of the whole year. If you’re traveling west or south, you’ve got no problems weather-wise! However, if you get north of Green Bay, into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, be aware of snow-covered roads thanks to lake-effect snow. Generally less than two inches means you’ll be able to navigate it safely. Just slow down and pay attention!

indianaRoads and highways in Northwestern Indiana will be more problematic. Watch out if your travels take you past Chicago toward Grand Rapids, Holland, Kalamazoo, or South Bend. I-80, I-90, and I-94 will be affected. The wind will have a full-fetch effect, blowing the entire length of Lake Michigan. Lake Effect Snow Warnings are out for 12 inches of quick-falling snow in La Porte County, IN. Click here for the latest on these warnings.

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Posted under safety, snow

This post was written by qni_it on November 26, 2013

Frigid Air Moves In

Yesterday the focus was on the snow, today it turns to an aggressive blast of cold air that will give us a very chilly 24 hour period. Our temperatures will tumble throughout the rest of the afternoon and evening leaving us with temps in the low 20s this evening. The actual temperatures aren’t what we need to focus on though. stormWind chill values will drop into the single digits overnight, and by tomorrow morning we could be dealing with wind chills in the negative single digits. We gradually warm into the weekend, but be sure to bundle up tonight and check on relatives and the elderly. Let’s all head into this holiday weekend safe! – Greg

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Posted under cold blast

This post was written by qni_it on November 26, 2013

Cold weather: here to stay for a while

lockedchillyThe weather pattern won’t give us many chances to warm up over the next week or two. With the passage of a cool front early Tuesday morning, we’ll stay in a northwest-flow situation. That’s where the jet stream forms a ridge in the Western United States and a trough in the east. Being in the center part of the country, we’ll have a prevailing wind out of the northwest. This brings us glancing blows of cold air. However, northwest-flow doesn’t usually bring us much precipitation. Incidentally, this is the pattern that brings us the famous “Alberta Clippers!” But none of those are foreseen around our airspace this week. Well, nothing that’s going to bring us more accumulating snow.

There will be some briefly milder air for the weekend before another surge of Canadian air. And if you’re wondering, it looks active in the first few weeks of December. Quite possibly, that’s the timeframe for Winter Storm Number One!

Have a great night and be careful on the roads. -Eric

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Posted under cold blast

This post was written by qni_it on November 25, 2013

Turkey Day Travel

Today’ssnow is exiting the area, and now our focus turns toward mid-week travel plans. Whether you’re heading out of town or have company making the trip here to the travel2Stateline, you’ll want to check out flight times if New England is involved at all. Many places off to the far northeast will see 5-10″ of snowfall between today and Wednesday. travel2The good news is that here in the Midwest we don’t have much to worry about. Aside from a few flurries that could roll through tomorrow, our snow chances for the rest of the week are non-existant. The weekend will be chilly, but travel conditions will be excellent. – Gregtravel

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Posted under snow, travel

This post was written by qni_it on November 25, 2013

Light Snow on Monday

Light snow showers will develop in eastern Iowa before sunrise on Monday. The snow showers will continue to develop and push east into northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin throughout the morning.  Even though this system is very limited with moisture, minor snow accumulations are likely.  Precipitation estimates remain below one-tenth of an inch.  The result will be light coating of snow, perhaps up to an inch in spots.  South of Interstate 88 may only see a dusting.

The intensity of the snow will be light, but a quick burst of moderate snow is not out of the question.  With a brisk southwest wind—sustained between 10 and 20mph and gusting up to 30mph—there may be some short-lived visibility issues.  Also with gusty wind comes the concern of blowing snow.  Although the accumulations will be minor, blowing snow may cause icy patches on some roads.  High temperatures will reach the lower 30s by Monday afternoon while any lingering snow showers should clear the area by then, if not sooner.  Patchy (freezing) drizzle may develop late afternoon and early evening in advance of an approaching cold front.

-Joe

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Posted under FutureTrack, ice, snow, travel, weather, Wind, winter weather

This post was written by qni_it on November 24, 2013

Sportsman’s Forecast

The first firearm hunting season in Illinois wraps up on Sunday, while Wisconsin’s will continue through the end of the month.  Sunday’s forecast calls for a good deal of sunshine throughout the Prairie and Badger states.  A few random flurries are possible in far northern Wisconsin, otherwise dry weather is expected in both states.

Wisconsin regional forecast

Wisconsin regional forecast

The big story is the cold.  Northern Wisconsin will wake up to below zero temperatures while southern Illinois will start off in the middle teens.

Illinois regional forecast

Illinois regional forecast

Locally, we will rise into the middle 20s after a frigid start in the single digits. Wind will play a factor as it shifts from northwest to southwest between 5 and 15 miles per hour. Wind chills will be around zero in the morning and in the lower teens during the afternoon.

-Joe

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Posted under cold blast, event, travel, weather

This post was written by qni_it on November 23, 2013

Frigid Air

Cold. Chilly. Frigid. Bone chilling. Freezing.  Name an adjective and you’re probably right!  After only reaching the lower 20s on Saturday afternoon, temperatures will tank overnight.

Single Digits Overnight

Single Digits Overnight

Lows in our area will plummet into the single digits, with below zero temperatures not far away in northern Iowa!  Temperatures this cold during this time of the year are a bit unusual, but not unheard of.  On average, our low temperatures for late November are often in the middle 20s.

Below Zero Wind Chill

Below Zero Wind Chill

Factor in our northwest breeze, sustained between 5 and 15 miles per hour, and we have the recipe for an extremely cold feel to the air.  Wind chill values will dip below zero overnight and early Sunday morning. By Sunday afternoon, our wind chill will remain in the lower teens.

-Joe

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Posted under cold blast, FutureTrack, statistics, weather

This post was written by qni_it on November 23, 2013