On Track for 9th Snowiest

With meteorological winter coming to an end this Friday, it looks as though this winter will go down as the 9th snowiest in Rockford’s history! Meteorological winter is defined as the entire months of December, January and February. During this time-frame, 46.5 inches of snow was recorded at Chicago Rockford International Airport on the city’s south side.

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Looking at our extended forecast, there is one chance of accumulating snow through the end of the month.  That chance arrives Monday evening and Monday night.  A quick coating of snow up to 1 inch is possible, although models are trending less today than on Saturday.  So I would give us just a 30% chance of seeing an extra inch of snow added to our seasonal total.  However, if we do pick up one more inch, winter 2013/2014 could slip into the 8th snowiest spot.

We’ll be tracking Monday evening’s round of light snow on 13 News Weekend and 13 News Today.

Here are the Top 10 snowiest winters in Rockford:

  1. 65.1 inches — 2007/2008
  2. 63.4 inches — 1978/1979
  3. 51.2 inches — 2010/2011
  4. 49.9 inches — 1993/1994
  5. 49.3 inches — 2008/2009
  6. 48.9 inches — 2009/2010
  7. 48.9 inches — 1909/1910
  8. 47.3 inches — 1973/1974
  9. 46.5 inches — 2013/2014*
  10. 46.4 inches — 1917/1918

*as of February 23, 2014

We all know that Mother Nature doesn’t stop the snow from falling when the calender hits March 1st, so we’ll be tracking our yearly snowfall total beyond the end of meteorological winter.  Our yearly snowfall is recorded from July through June, and our snowiest was 1978/1979 with 74.5 inches followed closely by 2007/2008 with 72.9 inches.  As it stands right now, 2013/2014 is at 47.5 inches of snow.

-Joe

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Posted under 13 Climate Authority, climate/climate change, record weather, snow, statistics, weather, winter weather

This post was written by qni_it on February 23, 2014

Average Rising; Forecast Falling

As we enter the last week of February, we typically expect temperatures to rise above freezing during the day. Our average high temperature is 40 degrees by next weekend!

Welcome to reality! We’re headed back into the deep freeze, at least by late February standards. Our forecast highs are in the teens and 20s. Low temperatures will fall below zero.  The core of the cold air will be in place from Tuesday evening through Friday afternoon. Click here for the 7-Day Forecast.

Forecast Highs: 15-25° colder than average

Forecast Highs: 15-25° colder than average

It will be cold enough that a few long-standing records will be in jeopardy:

  • record low temperature on Wednesday, February 26th (-6° from 1994)
  • record cold high temperature on Wednesday, February 26th (11° from 1920)
  • record cold high temperature on Thursday, February 27th (18° from 1912)

The good news is that our weather will be relatively quiet, in terms of what’s falling from the sky. Late Monday and Monday night, a dusting to an inch of snow is possible.  The rest of the time we’ll get to enjoy some sunshine!

-Joe

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Posted under cold blast, FutureTrack, snow, statistics, sunlight, weather, winter weather

This post was written by qni_it on February 22, 2014

Bright Weekend!

1Low pressure is exiting the area to the northeast tonight. As it moves away, the pressure gradient force (fancy terminology for wind) will decrease. But don’t anticipate anything too warm!

1Temperatures will top out in the middle 20s for our part of the state, but at least it will be sunny! A weak system could bring some light snow for downstate Illinois. For us, our next chance of snow will move into the forecast Monday night into Tuesday. A few inches will be possible. Meteorologist Joe Astolfi will monitor the models over the weekend. Be sure to check back on the blog for updates!

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Posted under cold blast

This post was written by qni_it on February 21, 2014

Late Morning Storm Update

This morning has brought us a little bit of everything across the Stateline. We started the very early hours of this morning with heavy downpours. Thunder and lightning were frequent as well. Mixed in with the rainfall, heavy snowflakes impacted parts of the far Northern Illinois and Southern Wisconsin. Here is a look at the rainfall totals so far today (through 11am). 1

We expect to see some more scattered rain with the possibility of a few thunderstorms as we head into the later stages of this afternoon. High temperatures will push into the upper 40s which will cause a good deal of snow melt. Flooding will be a concern as we head into the evening hours. This evening is also when another concern will develop. The potential for snowfall will exist, and a few inches could fall before midnight. A high wind warning will be in effect from 5-11pm for Winnebago, Boone, Lee, Ogle and DeKalb County due to wind gusts upwards of 50mph. Stay tuned for more updates! – Gregradar

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Posted under rain, snow, Wind, winter weather

This post was written by qni_it on February 20, 2014

Everything possible on Thursday

Aside from 80° sunshine that is.

A very dynamic weather system will start and end with wintry precipitation, sandwiched with an inch or so of heavy rain! Let’s take this in batches.

1Tonight: Rain and thunder will develop after midnight, possibly mixed with snow and sleet at times. Minor snow and sleet accumulations are possible, especially along and north of US20. Our Futuretrack computer model puts down 1-2 inches of snowfall, just in time for Friday morning’s commute. Areas most likely to receive the snow accumulation are in the Freeport-Rockford corridor, points northward into Monroe, Beloit, and Janesville. Areas along the I-88 corridor will likely stay as all liquid. Temperatures will hover right at 32 degrees.

3Thursday: Morning wintry mix will become all rain by 8am as warmer air moves in from the south. Rain will be accompanied by thunder at times. Small hail and gusty wind are possible in and around thunderstorms. Highs around 47 in Rockford with 50s south of I-88. 1-2 inches of rain is likely which will cause some flooding problems. Watch for standing water on roadways and if you live near a creek, watch for rapid rises. The rivers will need to be monitored, especially on Friday and Saturday as ice jams will be possible.

4Thursday night: Very Windy with rain changing to snow. Some minor accumulations will be possible. Again, in the 1-2 inch range for Northern Illinois. However, this minor snow will come with major wind! Wind gusts will exceed 50mph in open areas causing white-out conditions. It’s conceivable that we hit all-out blizzard conditions Thursday evening after 8pm. Temperatures will fall to around 22 with wind chills around 10 degrees.

Friday: Light snow in the morning, becoming sunny and very windy. Highs around 32 with peak wind gusts around 45mph.

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Above: Snowfall accumulation for Thursday morning.
Below: Rainfall forecast for Thursday.
7

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Posted under cold blast, winter storm

This post was written by qni_it on February 19, 2014

Advancing precip Wednesday Evening

radarExactrack|HD shows a slug of moisture already moving into Southern Iowa. This is several hours earlier than the models have indicated, so we have moved up the timing for some sleet, freezing rain, and snow overnight.

Precipitation will be mainly rain along I-88 as temperatures stay around 33°. However, along the US20 corridor and into Southern Wisconsin, sleet, freezing rain, and snow are likely. Some minor accumulations of snow are possible (up to 2″) before the wintry mix changes to rain during the day on Thursday.

On top of that, there is enough instability in the mid-levels of the atmosphere to cause a few thunderstorms tonight and tomorrow.

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Posted under rain

This post was written by qni_it on February 19, 2014

Midwest Mix-Up

TIMINGTonight into tomorrow is going to be an interesting time across the Stateline. Within an 18 hour time frame we could be dealing with the following: snow, rain, freezing rain, thunderstorms, strong wind, dense fog and flooding. Here is a look at the most likely scenario heading into tonight. It is important to note that temperatures will be within a degree or two on either side of 32°, so any slight shift in this system could drastically impact the time frame and amounts of each precip type.

Late tonight a strong area of low pressure will begin to track into our area with temperatures a few degrees shy of 32°. The initial precip will likely be mixed with snow, freezing rain and rain. The best chance for snow and freezing rain will be in far Northern Illinois near the Wisconsin border, and Southern Wisconsin. A few inches of snowfall accumulation early tomorrow morning is in the cards, but any new accumulation will quickly melt heading into the afternoon.

Mid-morning brings us a transition to mainly rain, some of which could be heavy at times, with a few embedded thunderstorms not out of the question. During the time frame of late morning into early afternoon we could see a brief lull in activity with a resurgence of rain for the rest of the afternoon, again with thunderstorm potential. Throughout this process, temperatures will climb well above freezing into the low 40s. Dense fog and localized flooding in low areas due to snow melt is likely.

The evening hours will kick up the wind as the back side of the system slides in and brings with it a shot of colder air and the potential for a few additional inches of snowfall.

Again, I stress that the smallest shift in storm track could greatly increase or decrease snowfall potential and accumulation especially heading into tomorrow morning. Stay tuned for more updates! – Greg

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Posted under flooding, fog, rain, snow, Wind, winter storm, winter weather

This post was written by qni_it on February 19, 2014

Almost Triple

Yesterday brought us yet another round of snowfall bringing the seasonal total up to 47.4″.  This number has gone above and beyond last year’s total through this date, so much so that we have almost tripled the amount of snow that we had seen by this time last year. Last year, by this date, 16.7″ had fallen, though we did rack up a fairly decent amount of snow during the end of February and throughout March. Enjoy this brief warm up, because cooler temps return this weekend, so our prospects for more snow are looking good. – Greg snow

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Posted under snow, statistics, winter weather

This post was written by qni_it on February 18, 2014

Snowfall Reports

13 Weather Authority Snowfall Forecast: 3-6″

Official Reports from National Weather Service:
5.0″ Winslow, Illinois
5.0″ Southeast Rockford
4.5″ Mt. Carroll
4.5″ Beloit
4.1″ Marengo
4.0″ Lanark
4.0″ DeKalb
4.0″ Stockton
3.8″ Downtown Rockford
3.0″ Freeport
2.6″ Janesville

VUISIONAnd here’s a look at the doppler estimated snowfall. Keep in mind with convective snow like we had today, it may have estimated a little too low.

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Posted under snow

This post was written by qni_it on February 17, 2014

YouTube Video Forecast Update: Sunday Feb 16th 6:30pm

Here’s a quick update on what to expect for Monday. I’ll have your full forecast on 13 News Weekend after the Olympics. -Joe

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Posted under snow, travel, video, weather, winter storm, winter weather

This post was written by qni_it on February 16, 2014