From one end to the other

December 2, 2014- Just when you think, “here we go again”, the weather changes on you.  We are coming off a pretty cold November in the Stateline.  Last month ranked as the 6th coldest November on record for Rockford, with the State Climatologist Office for Illinois stating that November 2014 was the fourth coldest for the entire state.

A look back at November 2014

A look back at November 2014

We had plenty of days spent below the freezing point, and almost setting a record for the amount of days to boot.  We were stuck in a predominantly cold weather pattern with Arctic air spilling in from the north.

Our weather pattern for a lot of November featured northwest airflow bringing in Arctic air

Our weather pattern for a lot of November featured northwest airflow bringing in Arctic air

The icy influence of that weather pattern also reared its ugly head for the start of December.

December 1st was very chilly, but the chill will not last

December 1st was very chilly, but the chill will not last

Thankfully, the new month is still very young, and the weather this week and next will be trending in the opposite direction.  What’s occurring is a pattern change that will allow more airflow off of the Pacific.  This will help bring in milder air, especially as the polar jet stream retreats north for a while.

The weather pattern is changing and allowing milder air in from the Pacific

The weather pattern is changing and allowing milder air in from the Pacific

So what does that mean for our temperatures? We felt it already today (Tuesday) with a high of 33 compared to 21 from the day before.  We’ll be seeing a lot more of those 30’s to 40’s for the rest of this week and into next week.

December 8-12 has high chances for warm weather in the Stateline

December 8-12 has high chances for warm weather in the Stateline

This is the Climate Prediction Center’s outlook for next week.  The red colors, in this case, is good for us.  We have a very high probability of having above average weather through next week.  The milder weather may last into the middle of December, too, if you look at the next map.

December 10-16 showing high chances for above average weather

December 10-16 showing high chances for above average weather

80% chance of above average weather? I like those odds!  Keep in mind, above average does not mean very warm (50’s to 60’s).  We’d more likely have plenty of 40 degree days, with a few pushing 50.  We are losing out on day light as we get closer to the shortest day of the year (December 21).  That does play a large role. Countering that is the lack of snow cover; no snow means the sunlight we do get can heat the ground and the air.  Snow cover reflects a lot of sunlight, keeping us cold.

Overall, a mild few weeks will help ease the pain of getting through the cold, dark winter!

-Alex

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Posted under weather

This post was written by Alex Kirchner on December 2, 2014

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