Thoughts on Severe Weather Tomorrow (June 24)

June 23, 2015: Wednesday, and especially Wednesday night, features a risk for severe weather and flash flooding. As of now, it appears the locations with the highest chances for severe would be south of Rockford in Ogle, Lee, and DeKalb Counties.

THREATTRACK

There are a few issues with the setup for severe weather tomorrow.  We would need a northbound warm front to be close to the Stateline to provide the necessary shear, or “twist” in the atmosphere, to get rotating storms. That front also has plenty of very warm, moist air to fuel severe storms.

FLASH FLOOD SETUPFor starters, thunderstorms form tonight in Iowa as very moist air surges into that state. Those storms will travel east into the Stateline, arriving by tomorrow afternoon.

2The issue here, is that the outflow, or rain-cooled air pushing out away from these storms, may push on the warm front, keeping severe weather away from our area for most of the day.

3

The front does eventually move in, but likely not until Wednesday night. This raises the risk for heavy rainfall and flash flooding, with a lower severe risk, since the air is cooling off after sunset, robbing the atmosphere of energy.  There is a lot of moisture coming with the front, and because of very soggy weather from Monday plus heavy rain along the slow moving warm front, flash flooding is possible.

FUTURETRACK RAINFALL

You can see Futuretrack does have this general idea in mind, and shows 2″ to 4″ of rainfall through Thursday morning. Of course, this is only one model solution, but this does give us a general picture that heavy rainfall may be a major issue tomorrow night.

So, in summary: thunderstorms are possible by tomorrow night, with a risk for severe weather.  This is all dependent on how the Iowa thunderstorms tonight affect the area tomorrow morning and afternoon. Stay tuned and alert, as this situation develops.

-Alex

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This post was written by Alex Kirchner on June 23, 2015

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