Watching Out for a Wednesday Winter Storm in Wisconsin…

March 21, 2016: The calendar says “Spring!” but our weather will take a few days to catch up. After a day in the 60’s on Tuesday, we’ll drop to the 40’s with possibly some snow in the air by Thursday!

If you’ve heard rumors of a major storm dropping 6″ or more on Rockford during the middle of the week, you can rest a little easier.  While there’s a slight chance that may still happen, it is looking a lot more likely that we’ll see a lot of rain, some thunderstorms, and a little snow sneaking in by Thursday.

Possible storm tracks for Wednesday into Thursday (white- NAM, orange- GFS, blue- GEM, red- European

Possible storm tracks for Wednesday into Thursday (white- NAM, orange- GFS, blue- GEM, red- European

Here’s a map showing the model runs from Monday morning. While there is still some wiggle room in how the low may track (as all four models listed have a slightly different take on the storm), the average path among them keeps the heavy snow to the north, with mostly rain showers over us. Even if the storm takes the southern-most storm track, we’d still see mostly rain, with only a few inches of snow.

Possible storm tracks for Wednesday into Thursday (white- NAM, orange- GFS, blue- GEM, red- European

Possible storm tracks for Wednesday into Thursday (white- NAM, orange- GFS, blue- GEM, red- European

Regardless of how the storm performs Wednesday into early Thursday, by Thursday afternoon we should see light snow take over as the atmosphere cools off as the low pressure leaves and brings in much colder air. We’d likely see accumulations stay under 1″ during the tail end of the storm, especially with air temperatures staying above freezing.

Winter Storm Watch issued 3/21/16 for Thursday, March 24

Winter Storm Watch issued 3/21/16 for Thursday, March 24

With all this in mind, the National Weather Service has issued Winter Storm Watches highlighting where the heavy snow should fall, while keeping the “wiggle room” in the models in mind. As you can see, the watches are well to our north, so we should be in the clear.

On a side note- thunderstorms are possible within the rain showers Wednesday, a few could be on the strong side with strong wind gusts and small hail.  We’ll provide updates on the likelihood of those as we get closer to Wednesday, but be ready in case of strong storms Wednesday evening.

– Alex

Share

Posted under weather

This post was written by Alex Kirchner on March 21, 2016

1 Comment so far

  1. fnaf October 23, 2018 10:42 PM

    We’ll likely see highs in the 90’s for a few days, with the heat index near 100.

Leave a Comment

Name (required)

Email (required)

Website

Comments

 

More Blog Post

Previous Post: