Heat Wave Over

July 25, 2016: Ahhh…that’s a little better! After 4 sweltering days, the temperature and humidity dipped down to what we usually see this time of year, giving us some relief from the very muggy weather.



The humidity was the big difference in how it felt outside during the latest heat wave. While temperatures in the middle 90’s aren’t unheard of, pairing that with the almost tropical humidity added about 15° onto the heat index, pushing us to “feel’s like” conditions in the 100’s nearly every day during the latest hot spell.

The high humidity also helped fuel very heavy and intense rainfall at times, giving many spots 2″ to 4″ of rain over the last four days. Rockford usually only sees just under 4″ of rain for the MONTH, so getting a half to full month’s worth of rain in a few hours leads to plenty of headaches, like flash flooding.

Billboard 4

The dew point temperature (which shows an accurate measurement of how humid the atmosphere is) topped 78° several times, and at one point reached the low 80’s on Sunday. We rarely see dew points that high. In fact, over the last 46 years, we’ve only had dew points measure at or above 78° one quarter of one percent of the time! Wow! It was definitely “air you can wear” this weekend!

Extended Forecast PM NEW

Thankfully, for those who don’t like dealing with the excessive heat and extreme humidity, we have some relief this week. Dew points should stay below 70° (which is a lot more comfortable), and temperatures stay below 90° as well. In fact, late this week, the forecast call for conditions barely to 80° this weekend, which is a far cry from the hot and very muggy weather we’ve had lately!



Posted under weather

This post was written by Alex Kirchner on July 25, 2016

Heat Safety

July 20, 2016: With the intense heat coming Thursday and Friday, make sure you are taking care of yourself. We all know it gets hot in the summer and you have ways of dealing with the hot weather, but do be careful when conditions get this intense.

Combined, the hot air and high humidity will feel like the 100’s for much of Thursday and Friday afternoon. Here’s how you can help your body through the intense conditions:

Billboard 3

  • If you need to be outside, exercise or do hard work in the early morning or evening. These time periods avoid the heat of the day, and are a little cooler.
  • If you need to work outside, take frequent breaks, stay out of the direct sunlight as much as possible, and find a shady spot to cool off.
  • Drink lots of water! Sports drinks may help, but are also full of sugar, which isn’t the greatest for the body. Water is best.
  • Spend as much time in a cool, air conditioned place as you can. Your body gets pretty stressed fighting off the intense heat, so give is as much of a break as you can by getting into air conditioning.
  • Wear light colored, loose clothing.
  • Never leave your kids or your pets in a vehicle, even for a minute, even if the windows are rolled down. Temperatures can heat up very rapidly in a vehicle, turning the vehicle into an oven in only a handful of minutes.
  • Find a cool spot with plenty of water for your pets. Leave them inside in the air conditioning as much as possible.
  • Be careful with playground equipment and the pavement. Surfaces like the slide or the sidewalk can be very hot, and sometime burn either your kids or your dog’s paws (dogs sweat through their paws, so walk them early or late, when the pavement is cool).

Finally, know the signs of heat illnesses:


  • Heat injuries start with heat cramps, so if you start cramping up in the heat, get inside and cool off.
  • Heat exhaustion is the next step as the body starts failing to cool off. You’ll feel very sweaty, and possibly dizzy, nauseous, and possibly starting fainting. Cramps may continue, vomiting is possible, and your skin will be pale and clammy. As before, get inside in the air conditioning, drink plenty of water, and maybe jump into a cool shower if you feel these symptoms. Heat exhaustion can lead to heat stroke if untreated.


  • Heat stroke is a medical emergency. As with the other heat illnesses, your body isn’t able to cool off, but by this point your body temperature has reached 103° or higher. Your body can’t cool off, and will begin shutting down, with possibly organ failure or death! Symptoms of heat stroke are: no sweating, rapid pulse, fainting, pounding headache, rapid or racing pulse, and red, dry skin.  Call 9-1-1, and try to cool off as quickly as possible as you are waiting for help.

Call your doctor if you start experiencing these symptoms after being out in the heat for a while, and if you have any questions. Stay safe, and stay cool tomorrow!





Posted under weather

This post was written by Alex Kirchner on July 20, 2016

Bring on the heat!

July 18, 2016: We have a few days to get ready, but very hot weather is on the way!

In fact, the National Weather Service has already issued an Excessive Heat Watch, highlighting where and when the potentially dangerous heat will be striking this week.

Excessive Heat Watch for Thursday to Friday

Excessive Heat Watch for Thursday to Friday

Why is this heat considered harmful? Long story short, your body has a very tough time cooling off in these conditions, leading to heat stroke or heat exhaustion. These are very serious medical conditions that can lead to death. When the weather is this hot and this humid for a couple days in a row, you need to find a way to give your body a break from the heat, or heat stroke or exhaustion can set in quickly.

Have a cool place to go, preferably in air conditioning, and especially during the heat of the day (late morning to early evening). If you have to be outside, take plenty of breaks in a cool or shaded location, and drink lots and lots of water.

Why is this happening? By Thursday, a “heat dome” is setting up, meaning a massive area of high pressure is setting up in the upper levels of the atmosphere. Under high pressure, air sinks and warms up as it does so, leading to those hot temperatures. 90’s to 100’s will be in the forecast for much of the nation while under this dome of high pressure.

"Heat dome" sets up from Thursday into the weekend

“Heat dome” sets up from Thursday into the weekend

Factor in the humidity, and the heat index (“feel’s like conditions”) will be near 110° for a couple days. Find a way to stay cool!



Posted under weather

This post was written by Alex Kirchner on July 18, 2016

Severe Weather Outlook: July 7th

The threat for severe weather this afternoon/evening still remains, but it has diminished a bit. The new SPC Severe Outlook has shifted the “Enhanced Risk” far to the south and west of our area. The Stateline is now in the “Slight Risk” region for severe storms.


This forecast has been very challenging due to models not only disagreeing with each other, but also disagreeing with themselves. Each separate model run has been different throughout the past 24 hours. I’ll use the NAM 4KM model for an example. This picture below is from the 06z model run that shows a very large system moving through later tonight.

nam 4km 0z run

Now, newer model runs came out earlier this morning, and the guidance was much different for storm activity at this time. The NAM 4kM is now suggesting this storm develops well off to the southwest of the Stateline near the Iowa and Missouri border.

4km new run

That’s a big difference between model runs. What’s more frustrating is this model I am pointing out has actually been the most consistent with handling the complex storm development expected later this evening.

Not only have the long range models been struggling, but so have short range models. We use short range models to forecast for 2-8 hours out. For 11:30 AM this morning Futuretrack (which I had displaying the guidance from a short range model) was showing strong thunderstorm develop near the Quad Cities heading NE.


The problem is that isn’t what was happening real-time at 11:30 AM.

radar 1130

In real time light to moderate showers where moving through the Stateline. Models have made this forecast very challenging with the indecisiveness of timing and location of storms. threattracker

The threat for severe weather still remains for this afternoon/evening though, but storms are expected to be much weaker than previously expected. Main threats will be heavy rain and strong winds. Location/timing for development of storms later this after and evening is still a little messy and is something will monitor.

– Nick


Posted under weather

This post was written by Alex Kirchner on July 7, 2016

Another cool day, but hot, muggy weather is back very soon…

July 1, 2016: Happy Friday! We are now half way through the year! There are 183 days left to 2016.

We likely won’t be seeing cool temperatures for much longer, since the weather heats up in a big way going into next week. We get rid of the cool northwest air flow in the jet, and see southwesterly jet stream winds return.

Jet stream pattern next week

Jet stream pattern next week

The jet stream also retreats well off to the north and ridges, allowing a lot of hot, humid air back into the Midwest. We’ll likely see highs in the 90’s for a few days, with the heat index near 100. Whew!

July outlook from the Climate Prediction Center

July outlook from the Climate Prediction Center

On top of all that, the latest prediction for the month of July as a whole shows above average weather likely to stick around, and not just here, but from coast to coast across the Lower 48.  We may be seeing a lot of hot days in the near future, so soak up the cooler weather while it’s here!



Posted under weather

This post was written by Alex Kirchner on July 1, 2016