Severe Weather Outlook: July 7th

The threat for severe weather this afternoon/evening still remains, but it has diminished a bit. The new SPC Severe Outlook has shifted the “Enhanced Risk” far to the south and west of our area. The Stateline is now in the “Slight Risk” region for severe storms.

outlook2

This forecast has been very challenging due to models not only disagreeing with each other, but also disagreeing with themselves. Each separate model run has been different throughout the past 24 hours. I’ll use the NAM 4KM model for an example. This picture below is from the 06z model run that shows a very large system moving through later tonight.

nam 4km 0z run

Now, newer model runs came out earlier this morning, and the guidance was much different for storm activity at this time. The NAM 4kM is now suggesting this storm develops well off to the southwest of the Stateline near the Iowa and Missouri border.

4km new run

That’s a big difference between model runs. What’s more frustrating is this model I am pointing out has actually been the most consistent with handling the complex storm development expected later this evening.

Not only have the long range models been struggling, but so have short range models. We use short range models to forecast for 2-8 hours out. For 11:30 AM this morning Futuretrack (which I had displaying the guidance from a short range model) was showing strong thunderstorm develop near the Quad Cities heading NE.

futuretrack

The problem is that isn’t what was happening real-time at 11:30 AM.

radar 1130

In real time light to moderate showers where moving through the Stateline. Models have made this forecast very challenging with the indecisiveness of timing and location of storms. threattracker

The threat for severe weather still remains for this afternoon/evening though, but storms are expected to be much weaker than previously expected. Main threats will be heavy rain and strong winds. Location/timing for development of storms later this after and evening is still a little messy and is something will monitor.

– Nick

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This post was written by Alex Kirchner on July 7, 2016

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