March Melt

It happens every March. Temperatures warm up, the sun angle is high, and snow begins to melt. With a snowpack that has been in place for over 90 days, it will take a while for all of it to melt.

Although a major warm-up is not in our immediate future, this week’s high temperatures will be much closer to average than the first week of March. Our average high temperature during the second week of March is in the middle 40s.

Forecast High Temps vs. Average High Temps

Forecast High Temps vs. Average High Temps

In the 7-Day Forecast, we’ve got plenty of temperature ups and downs. A couple of the days will likely touch 50 degrees!

When was the last time we saw 50 degrees? This happened over three months ago on December 4, 2013. Even more impressive is the fact that our high temperature has only cracked the 40 degree mark five times in 2014!

With rapid snowmelt comes the threat for flooding. Thankfully, we won’t see a rapid snowmelt. But even with a gradual melt, we still have to monitor the potential for ice jam flooding on area rivers.

-Joe

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Posted under 13 Climate Authority, flooding, weather

This post was written by qni_it on March 9, 2014

Midwest Mix-Up

TIMINGTonight into tomorrow is going to be an interesting time across the Stateline. Within an 18 hour time frame we could be dealing with the following: snow, rain, freezing rain, thunderstorms, strong wind, dense fog and flooding. Here is a look at the most likely scenario heading into tonight. It is important to note that temperatures will be within a degree or two on either side of 32°, so any slight shift in this system could drastically impact the time frame and amounts of each precip type.

Late tonight a strong area of low pressure will begin to track into our area with temperatures a few degrees shy of 32°. The initial precip will likely be mixed with snow, freezing rain and rain. The best chance for snow and freezing rain will be in far Northern Illinois near the Wisconsin border, and Southern Wisconsin. A few inches of snowfall accumulation early tomorrow morning is in the cards, but any new accumulation will quickly melt heading into the afternoon.

Mid-morning brings us a transition to mainly rain, some of which could be heavy at times, with a few embedded thunderstorms not out of the question. During the time frame of late morning into early afternoon we could see a brief lull in activity with a resurgence of rain for the rest of the afternoon, again with thunderstorm potential. Throughout this process, temperatures will climb well above freezing into the low 40s. Dense fog and localized flooding in low areas due to snow melt is likely.

The evening hours will kick up the wind as the back side of the system slides in and brings with it a shot of colder air and the potential for a few additional inches of snowfall.

Again, I stress that the smallest shift in storm track could greatly increase or decrease snowfall potential and accumulation especially heading into tomorrow morning. Stay tuned for more updates! – Greg

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Posted under flooding, fog, rain, snow, Wind, winter storm, winter weather

This post was written by qni_it on February 19, 2014

Destination: Warmer Weather

I wish there was a way for the weather to be instantaneously warm. But that’s not going to be the case. We are forecasting much warmer temperatures by the end of February. But there are several bumps in the road, just in the next week!

rough1Here’s a look at the snow events in the next five days. On Wednesday, we’ll see about an inch of snowfall. It’s not going to be that big of a deal, so long as you drive slow and allow extra time. Most of this will fall in the early afternoon hours.

More snow flurries are in the forecast for Thursday, but little/no accumulation is expected. A bigger snow system is possible for Saturday as the models show a vigorous Alberta Clipper moving in from the northwest. We’ll continue to watch this in the next few days. Right now, it looks like a 3-6 inch snow…but a lot depends on the eventual track. Models will resolve their differences in the next 24-48 hours.

 

 

2Next bump on “Warming Trend Road” is a quick shot of cold air coming in Friday. While it won’t be extreme cold…or nearly the scope of the cold that brought us down to -21° today, it will pause our warming trend. There are some indications we’ll be in the teens for highs, however will stick with the 20s due to stronger sunshine and a warmer start-up temperature Friday morning. Friday night will be mighty chilly if you’re planning a night on the town. We’ll dip to around 0° with high pressure overhead.

 

3

We could be warm enough for some rain to mix into our next system Monday. But with temperatures at the surface at or below freezing, there could be some ice accumulation. It’s way out there, but we’ll have to watch closely as our ground is still frozen solid, there’s quite a bit of snow on the ground, and rain could cause short-term flooding. Unfortunately, flooding will become a significant concern in the next few weeks.

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Posted under flooding

This post was written by qni_it on February 11, 2014

Weather Pattern Flip Flop

de3epfreezeThe cold weather pattern that began well before Christmas is showing signs of easing up. While temperatures will dip to -16° Tuesday morning, it looks like we’ll have a remarkable warming trend after that.

The maps to the left show the overall change in jet stream pattern in the next two weeks. Instead of a northwest-southeast orientation of the jet, we’ll have a southwest-northeast orientation. This will bring much milder temps to the Upper Midwest. 30s and 40s are likely for much of next week.

However, don’t pray TOO hard for warmth. Think of the fact we have snow on top of a very frozen ground. If we don’t gradually melt off the snow, we will see serious flooding beginning in a few weeks. So, let’s hope this thaw happens over a longer period of time so we don’t see extreme flooding.

But if you don’t have flood insurance and you live in a flood plain, you might want to think about getting it so you’re covered before the water rises! Of course, we’ll keep you updated on flooding potential in the next few weeks. -Eric

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Posted under flooding, snow

This post was written by qni_it on February 10, 2014

Wintry cocktail coming on Friday

CHALLENGES

We’ve got a few challenges to deal with on Friday. But in the whole realm of everything we’ve seen this winter, this is an easy one to live with. In the morning, we’ll have a few hours of very light freezing drizzle. Just a little can cause problems so be careful especially on the first few steps in your sidewalk.

As temperatures rise into the middle 30s by mid-morning, we’ll see all rain. It looks like we’ll get about a half inch of rain with some higher amounts east and south of Rockford. This will cause some roads to flood, especially where the rainwater has nowhere to go. So watch out, especially in the right lanes.

In addition, we’ll be keeping our eyes on the river levels. In the next few days, we could have some significant fluxuations due to ice jam flooding. Be careful if you live near or work around any of our rivers! -Eric temptracker

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Posted under flooding

This post was written by qni_it on January 9, 2014

Tropical Storm Flossie

2Hawaiians are bracing themselves as Tropical Storm Flossie makes its approach. The storm has weakened in the past 12 hours, but as of 11am CST it still has a sustained wind speed of 45mph with gusts as high as 60mph. The Big Island and Maui are expected to see the brunt of the storm with the likelihood of 18 foot waves, flash flooding, mudslides, tornadoes and waterspouts. Despite the weakening of the system, many signs point to Flossie remaining a tropical storm until we head into Wednesday. -Greg

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Posted under flooding, tropical weather, weather

This post was written by qni_it on July 29, 2013

Rivers remain high for the 4th of July

Were you planning on hitting the river this Fourth of July? I hope not. Almost every river is near or above flood stage, except for the Kishwaukee. Please stay off all high/flooding rivers and if you’re going to enjoy the “Mighty Kish” please wear a life vest. -Eric
Pecatonica River:




Sugar River:

Kishwaukee River:



Rock River:







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Posted under flooding

This post was written by qni_it on July 3, 2013

Flood Warnings Along Area Rivers

Flood Warnings are in effect for nearly all of the local river gauge sites in northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. Thanks to heavy rainfall and flash flooding over the past 48 to 72 hours, moderate flooding is forecast for the larger river basins through this weekend. River crests are expected Friday into Saturday.  The Rock River near Rockton, Roscoe, Machesney Park, and Byron is expected to see moderate flooding.  The Pecatonica River near Freeport will see moderate flooding as well.  Minor flooding is expected along the Kishwaukee River near Belvidere and in southern Winnebago County.  The Sugar River near Brodhead, the Pecatonica River near Shirland & Winslow, and the Rock River near Dixon will all experience minor flooding as well.

As of Wednesday night, Turtle Creek near Beloit was in major flood stage. That creek was over 13 feet, a new record crest.

Sandbags are available in three locations throughout Winnebago County:

  • Harlem-Roscoe Fire Station #1 at 10544 Main Street in Roscoe
  • Michalsen Office Furniture at 8010 North 2nd Street (IL-251) in Machesney Park
  • New Milford Fire Station at 2177 Will James Road in New Milford

For the latest river gauge levels, click HERE.

-Joe

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Posted under flooding, news, rain, record weather, safety, travel, weather

This post was written by qni_it on June 26, 2013

Flash Flooding Likely

Through midnight last night we have received nearly 5″ of rainfall since last Friday, and that number is surely to rise when totals come in from the heavy downpours that tracked through the area this morning. A flash flood warning is in effect until 4:30pm for Winnebago and Boone County. We have already been updated to many flooded areas, and flooding along rivers will continue to be a concern even well after the showers and storms clear out. Many rivers are expected to crest between Friday afternoon and Saturday afternoon. If you live near a low-lying area be mindful that just because you aren’t flooded now doesn’t mean you won’t experience flooding within the next few days. If you encounter a flooded area, avoid that area all together. Attempting to walk or even drive in flood water can be extrememly dangerous! Stay tuned for updates! -GregCapture

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Posted under flooding, rain, statistics

This post was written by qni_it on June 26, 2013

Additional heavy thunderstorms likely Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning

Captur2eFlash Flood Watches remain in effect in advance of our next impulse that will generate thunderstorms overnight. Some storms could produce 1-2 inches of rain in a little over an hour, as well as some gusty wind. There is a low risk (Threatrack Level 2) of severe weather tonight and tomorrow. CaptureHowever, more importantly will be the threat for additional flash flooding. Our Futuretrack computer model puts down an average of 2 inches across the Metro. Of course, there will be higher amounts in spots that get more than one thunderstorm. Be careful, especially if you’re driving during the nighttime hours.

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Posted under flooding, severe weather

This post was written by qni_it on June 25, 2013